Could Corona Virus lead to a never before crash?

Raj232

Well-Known Member
Don't want too many forecasts and daily update on this ... in any case the numbers are growing exponentially whether lockdown or no lockdown.
So posting the forecast so that we can only see whether we are in line with the expectations or whether it is growing faster than we can expect :confusedd:


1593295032325.png


We can see the peak in mid / end August if the people follow social distancing and wear a 3-layer cloth mask along with hand hygiene to prevent rampant spread of infection, else the peak will come much later.

We would also have to rethink the calculation about the peak as in India, noting goes as per expectation. The initial lockdown was to stop the virus in its tracks, but inspite of a lot of efforts, the problem has become bigger.

Just compare the below and then rethink the calculation :)
1593295603553.png
 
Last edited:

Raj232

Well-Known Member
Inspite of all these breakthroughs, etc. In India, a plasma transfusion for antibodies in a deteriorating patient even at the initial days of deterioration would help a lot (although there are pros and costs).. but so far, really speaking, no breakthrough has been made yet, or rather simply not being implemented (except in high profile cases).

We see the numbers rising, and hospital beds full. Rural doctors are not fully qualified medical practitioners.
 
Last edited:

jyotixxx

Well-Known Member
Don't want too many forecasts and daily update on this ... in any case the numbers are growing exponentially whether lockdown or no lockdown.
So posting the forecast so that we can only see whether we are in line with the expectations or whether it is growing faster than we can expect :confusedd:


View attachment 43155

We can see the peak in mid / end August if the people follow social distancing and wear a 3-layer cloth mask along with hand hygiene to prevent rampant spread of infection, else the peak will come much later.

We would also have to rethink the calculation about the peak as in India, noting goes as per expectation. The initial lockdown was to stop the virus in its tracks, but inspite of a lot of efforts, the problem has become bigger.

Just compare the below and then rethink the calculation :)
View attachment 43156
Yeah, probably total cases per 1 m won't give us peak. In that case, 40-60% population needs to get infected to start herd immunity building up. Means 60 crore cases???? Then were doomed. Peak won't be in this year.
 

Raj232

Well-Known Member
Let's say its 40 CR for now.. posting a sheet upto 31-Dec-2020 which almost tallies with 40 CR. During that time it shows more than 1 CR new cases per day !!!
1593321560754.png

1593321575449.png

This is just a mathematical projection of numbers and should in no way be treated as a forecast. Dynamics can change anytime and I hope all is fine at the earliest.
 
How can we and who will count 1 CR cases per day :)

Looking at these excel sheets, I had mentions about 2 months back
eventually we all will stop counting, sad repercussions but what is the other choice


Humanity has taken in, many calamities, this one also seems to be those big big ones

Just Hope and Prey, it leaves back a better world

.
 

Similar threads

Zerodha – Open Paperless Account

Open online account with Zerodha. Free delivery trading and Max Rs 20 for Intraday, F&O, Currency and Commodity Trading. Intraday High leverage with MIS, CO and BO.

Name:Phone:
Email:City:
State:
Are you a day trader?