Could Corona Virus lead to a never before crash?

jyotixxx

Well-Known Member
ICMR in daily briefings had said we will get 0 new cases by 20 May as per their mathematical modeling.
Hi,
I don't know much about that, but this is my personal view. please go through this thread from start, when I warned initially everywhere everyone put silly logic to deny the truth. If ICMR had some magic wands which CDC doesn't have, I would agree. The steep rise in cases worrisome.

Anyway these are just theories, but again not impossible!!
 

Raj232

Well-Known Member
Here we go,

Today, on 6K cases in one single day! My prediction remains same for 2 Lakh Cases by 8th June.

When may we see the peak? ( My View only)

Please have a look at the countries where cases are in decline. It seems cases were rising in full speed until it reached 3k to 5k per million population for most of them. Probably herd immunity level started building up after that. Though it is said that minimum 60% of total population cases required to start herd immunity building up, it varies from causative agent to agent.

If we assume, the above theory be true, 3k per million for India is around 40 lakh

To reach that level, considering the doubling time of 15 days, 2 laks in June first week, 4 L in 3rd week, 8L in July 2nd week, 16 L in July 4th week, 32L in Aug 2nd week. So we should peak out by August 3rd week.
Yes, after reading your post before you deleted, I got the approx the same numbers. 40 Lakh infections could be taken as baseline.
However, As per my forecast we might touch 2 Lakh cases by 1st June itself. I posted the day-by-day estimates here:
https://www.traderji.com/community/threads/general-trading-chat.96368/page-7776#post-1417815


I agree with August 3rd week (approx) would see the peak. After that we would have another 3 months of reducing cases (gradually), but much more pain as many during the time would be in hospital, without hope. (hosptalization would take an average of 4-6 weeks)

By October end, the trauma would probably be over. Hopefully if vaccines are administered en masse to the public before that, these dates would be reduced.
 
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AJK

Well-Known Member
Hi,
I don't know much about that, but this is my personal view. please go through this thread from start, when I warned initially everywhere everyone put silly logic to deny the truth. If ICMR had some magic wands which CDC doesn't have, I would agree. The steep rise in cases worrisome.

Anyway these are just theories, but again not impossible!!
it's seen that the infection would peak out before declining. but we are managing it with close to 50% recovery rate, means successfully managing the rate of active cases flat, in my view... lockdown has given time not only to prepare for the spread, but it also helped to identify the places less/not affected by the infection, being able to bring them back to normalcy.. in spite of lockdown, the numbers increased because no one knew the carriers at the beginning... in fact if the lockdown was not in place, we'd have been counting huge numbers on all the districts across the country now i think.
 

siddhant4u

Well-Unknown Member
but recovery rate in Mumbai is seriously worrisome. Chennai which is almost as packed as Mumbai managed to have very low death rate.. what's the difference between Mumbai and Chennai? food?
Mumbai is more densely packed than Chennai. Plus due to trading hub infection arrived early on from other countries.
 

Raj232

Well-Known Member
it's seen that the infection would peak out before declining. but we are managing it with close to 50% recovery rate, means successfully managing the rate of active cases flat, in my view... lockdown has given time not only to prepare for the spread, but it also helped to identify the places less/not affected by the infection, being able to bring them back to normalcy.. in spite of lockdown, the numbers increased because no one knew the carriers at the beginning... in fact if the lockdown was not in place, we'd have been counting huge numbers on all the districts across the country now i think.
Even if there carriers at the beginning, the lockdown (for 15 days) would have trapped the situation as incubation period of coronavirus is 14 days. But if nobody is bothered to enforce the lockdown and people are moving up and down just line normal, then it is difficult to control the numbers.

Moreover, COVID-19 is not as dangerous as SARS or MERS, it is more like a low grade fever for 3-5 days with probably a loss of smell, nothing more. For some who have other ailments going on, it could be more difficult as the body is already trying to recover from some other ailment while this one comes along.

For all practical purposes, COVID-19 will affect everyone sooner or later. Sitting inside the house may not be a good idea, some sunlight would be good to keep up health levels, while maintaining social distance.

Currently, India is at 4th position for new cases everyday.. we will reach top spot soon.
1590286834561.png


Coming to total infections, this week INDIA will get to the World's "TOP TEN" by rank for total cases (infections) .. and work our way up to No. 1 (THE LEADER)
 
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AJK

Well-Known Member
Dharavi is not just fighting coronavirus, but also dirty toilets and battered image
One of Asia’s biggest slums, Dharavi has a population density that makes social distancing — the key Covid-19 prevention measure — nearly impossible.
SWAGATA YADAVAR and SONIYA AGRAWAL 22 May, 2020 10:00 am IST

https://theprint.in/india/dharavi-i...also-dirty-toilets-and-battered-image/426523/

toilets are the major spreading points there... why couldn't we install some e-toilets there, may be one for each particular area... there might be many of them placed across the states, if new ones not immediately available..
 

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