Could Corona Virus lead to a never before crash?

jyotixxx

Well-Known Member
Wednesday to Sunday : in 5 days

66,021+
We will see 1 lakh cases by May 20. There is no escape !!

97,028 [+1,329]

Today, on 19th May we are crossing 1 Lakh case. With lockdown eased, we may now see rise in daily cases. My prediction is 2 Lakh Cases by 8th June.

Deleted :Wrong calculations
 
Last edited:

soft_trader

Well-Known Member
97,028 [+1,329]

Today, on 19th May we are crossing 1 Lakh case. With lockdown eased, we may now see rise in daily cases. My prediction is 2 Lakh Cases by 8th June.

When may we see the peak? ( My View only)

Please have a look at the countries where cases are in decline. It seems cases were rising in full speed until it reached 30k to 40k per million population for most of them. Probably herd immunity level started building up after that. Though it is said that minimum 60% of total population cases required to start herd immunity building up, it varies from causative agent to agent.

If we assume, the above theory be true, 30k per million for India is around 4 crores.

To reach that level, considering the doubling time of 15 days, 2 laks in June first week, 4 L in 3rd week, 8L in July 2nd week, 16 L in July 4th week, 32L in Aug 2nd week, 64L in Aug last week, 1.2 cr in September 3rd week, 2.4 in October Second week and 4 cr by October last week.

So, peak comes in October and lots of pain left before we see a decline.

PS: The above thoughts and calculations are my personal views.
"Please have a look at the countries where cases are in decline. It seems cases were rising in full speed until it reached 30k to 40k per million population for most of them. "
30 to 40k per million before decline? No country reached that figure.

1589812838810.png
 
97,028 [+1,329]

Today, on 19th May we are crossing 1 Lakh case. With lockdown eased, we may now see rise in daily cases. My prediction is 2 Lakh Cases by 8th June.

When may we see the peak? ( My View only)

Please have a look at the countries where cases are in decline. It seems cases were rising in full speed until it reached 30k to 40k per million population for most of them. Probably herd immunity level started building up after that. Though it is said that minimum 60% of total population cases required to start herd immunity building up, it varies from causative agent to agent.

If we assume, the above theory be true, 30k per million for India is around 4 crores.

To reach that level, considering the doubling time of 15 days, 2 laks in June first week, 4 L in 3rd week, 8L in July 2nd week, 16 L in July 4th week, 32L in Aug 2nd week, 64L in Aug last week, 1.2 cr in September 3rd week, 2.4 in October Second week and 4 cr by October last week.

So, peak comes in October and lots of pain left before we see a decline.

PS: The above thoughts and calculations are my personal views.
All these models have one flaw . . .

There is no way to know the number of undetected/unreported cases,
where the infection was never caught,
these vectors remain active and spreading for 4/7 days
Now above 90% are said to be asymptomatic

Lets consider Mumbai as an example, the count is just 20 K,
which considering the size of the city, the population density,
and the number of days the virus is in the city, looks way too less

And with minimal testing and no antibody tests or
any other exhaustive surveillance testing, there is just no way to know

My guess we may peak out a bit earlier than all these models suggest,
because there is under-reporting by a factor of 5 to 10.

.
 

Raj232

Well-Known Member
All these models have one flaw . . .

There is no way to know the number of undetected/unreported cases,
where the infection was never caught,
these vectors remain active and spreading for 4/7 days
Now above 90% are said to be asymptomatic

Lets consider Mumbai as an example, the count is just 20 K,
which considering the size of the city, the population density,
and the number of days the virus is in the city, looks way too less

And with minimal testing and no antibody tests or
any other exhaustive surveillance testing, there is just no way to know

My guess we may peak out a bit earlier than all these models suggest,
because there is under-reporting by a factor of 5 to 10.

.
100% correct Sirji . Thats why I always say Singh is King !! :)
 
Hi,

I trust you are safe and well in these difficult times.



i think Corona Virus can lead to a crash of its kind, as coronavirus will lead to a new type of globalization, example apple wants to move some of its production to India, but Donald Trump threatens apple with huge taxes, even Donald Trump may delay payment on US bond held by China.

62 nations move against china will create new dynamics and may create a very unstable situation for traders & investors. even the world's largest institutions like WHO & UN will lose its credibility and that is a sad part of the story. Highly populated countries like India may take a longer time to recover.



but all this can lead to once in a lifetime opportunity to invest in a market



Chandresh Khona

Digital Head – Sharekhan



DISCLAIMER

All views expressed on this for information & are my own and do not represent the opinions of any entity whatsoever with which I have been, am now, or will be affiliated.
 

jyotixxx

Well-Known Member
No issue, you can redo the calculation and post :)
Here we go,

Today, on 6K cases in one single day! My prediction remains same for 2 Lakh Cases by 8th June.

When may we see the peak? ( My View only)

Please have a look at the countries where cases are in decline. It seems cases were rising in full speed until it reached 3k to 5k per million population for most of them. Probably herd immunity level started building up after that. Though it is said that minimum 60% of total population cases required to start herd immunity building up, it varies from causative agent to agent.

If we assume, the above theory be true, 3k per million for India is around 40 lakh

To reach that level, considering the doubling time of 15 days, 2 laks in June first week, 4 L in 3rd week, 8L in July 2nd week, 16 L in July 4th week, 32L in Aug 2nd week. So we should peak out by August 3rd week.
 

Dr. Jan Itor

Well-Known Member
Here we go,

Today, on 6K cases in one single day! My prediction remains same for 2 Lakh Cases by 8th June.

When may we see the peak? ( My View only)

Please have a look at the countries where cases are in decline. It seems cases were rising in full speed until it reached 3k to 5k per million population for most of them. Probably herd immunity level started building up after that. Though it is said that minimum 60% of total population cases required to start herd immunity building up, it varies from causative agent to agent.

If we assume, the above theory be true, 3k per million for India is around 40 lakh

To reach that level, considering the doubling time of 15 days, 2 laks in June first week, 4 L in 3rd week, 8L in July 2nd week, 16 L in July 4th week, 32L in Aug 2nd week. So we should peak out by August 3rd week.
ICMR in daily briefings had said we will get 0 new cases by 20 May as per their mathematical modeling.
 

Similar threads

Broker Special Offers

Zerodha – Open Paperless Account

Open online account with Zerodha. Free delivery trading and Max Rs 20 for Intraday, F&O, Currency and Commodity Trading. Intraday High leverage with MIS, CO and BO.

Name:Phone:
Email:City:
State:
Are you a day trader?