Come into the Trader's Den

[DanPickUp]

Hi

Some special ideas how to invest our money for the next 12 months:

1 Invest in Gold mining company shares as the demand for gold still holds on. The production cost of gold will start to level and then stay at the same price, but as the price of gold rises, the company's will make more profit and this profit will be reflected in the share price.

2 Invest in an ETF which makes profit when the interest rates in the states will rise. They are very low now and they have to go up, as the risk of inflation is among in the USA. ( Inflation hedge )

3 Invest in an ETF from a fiat currency which will go up when the USD will fall, as the United states are bankrupt.

4 Invest in an ETF which will rise, when the Euro starts to collapse. Greek, Spain and Italy are in critical conditions and Germany will not for ever support them.

5 Try to figure out an investment which will go up when the DJ will start to fall, as there is a high probability that it will test its lows in the coming few months.

(Source: Lombardi's)

Tc

DanPickUp

 

[Omsrisairam]

Dear AW10...

It is very nice effort by you for newbies like me....

I just started commodities trading business (gold & silver only) even i quit my job with monthly income of 21K.

Pls advise whether i have taken right decision or not...


thank you.

sai ram

 

[AW10]

Sai Ram, Hope you won't me being straight forward and asking few question -
1) do you have track record of profitable trading of atleast 8 to 10 months or not ?
2) Do you have family to support or just you?
3) Do you have sufficient money to survive for 1 to 1.5 yr without expecting any return from trading?
4) Do you have profitable system and routine to analyse market and make trading decisions?

Your answer will tell you if you have taken right decision or not. I don't want to discourage you, but the odds are stacked against new trader. That is reality of trading. It is easy to do data crunching in excel a find out that we can make living from trading, but it is different story when reality comes forward. Scared money is first to loose and leave the market. This is business where losses are bound to come. And if you are not financially on sound ground, it will be psychologically challenging to take a trade and risk your money.

If you really want to give it a try, then give yourself time of 3months first and re-evaluate your decision.

all the best and happy trading.

 

[p8N8]

Hi AW,

You have said well that a trader is a lonely man & it is forums like these where he can vent out, share his worries & fears, so on & so forth. He may or may not get solutions . My worry ( I have nothing to hide ). At 48, I had to quit my job & my regret is I should have undergone training in intraday atleast 2-3 months back & got adequate experience in paper trading/ dummy trading when the salary was still coming.Still, today being the 1st day of unemployment as well as training( I am going through Saints notes) & thought of sharing with you guys that my head feels heavy. No, not demeaning saint,s notes but just to share the 1st day experience , where the calculations, charts, various questions have immense valu,but the brain is not assimilating fast enough. Hope fully, tomorrow will be a better day in reading the notes with which I can do my paper trading.


Cheers for now & Good night. Shall update my progress tomorrow

 

[AW10]

p8N8. Good to see you frank acceptance of reality of trading.

If you think, you made wrong decision, or you shd have taken some other decision, then it is never late to correct your decision. IMO, taking decision is great. If it turns out to be wrong, even better cause you have learnt something from it. But staying with wrong decision, once u realised that it is wrong, is foolishness. We got to take next right decision and bring ourself back on right track.
Scared money is first to leave the market. Have a look at your overall financial plan and see that you have sufficient capital to start a new business (which is trading buss). Like anyother business, it will have rough patch at start so your initial capital or saving has to withstand that shock. Most of new business fail because of poor finance mgmt, and it is true even to large extent for trading. Risk mgmt, money mgmt, selection of right instrument, right timeframe, and right mindset are absolute must.

At 48, I am sure, you have enough maturity to judge all this. Wishing you All the best and success in trading.

 

[chulbul]

I m unable to access the private message page. its showing i dont have sufficient access but earlier i have sent and received private msgs. Pls advise.

sorry for off the topic query

 

[chulbul]

Hi AW10,

Need ur help.I have been doing paper trading for sometime and trying to test some of the systems mentioned in traderji.but nt satisfied with the progress.there r far too many questions in my mind- am i moving in the right direction,am i spending more time on less imp aspects of trading and less time of the imp ones, do i need to master some software to analyse nd learn better, if the results r nt favorbale then i'll start thinking did I missing something or got it completely wrong, etc.
Moreover,I must admit,it feels a bit lonely(i m a working professional so always surrounded by a lot of ppl) to keep learning with all these ques.
On the positive side,I feel more sense of responsibility and feels as if I m my own boss
if u can pls spare sometime from ur busy schedule and mentor me that'll be of gr8 help.
dont know y my PM is nt working and whom to contact to get it rectified.any other way by which I can contact you.

Pls help/advise.

 

[AW10]

Hi Chulbul,
Appreciate your sincerity to learn trading. You are going thru typical journey of a trader.
At early stage, trader learns something, and then practices it in market. When results are favourable it feels like we have cracked the mkt, and then mkt moves into different phase and same strategy stops working. That pushes us back to think that we don't know something. There are 100s of topics in strategy development, technical analysis which is sufficient to confuse anybody.
So we go in an infinite loop of searching for holy grail, that system which will make us money. Reality is there is no holy grail system, but holy grail is in YOU.
Better you know youself as trader, your money blueprint, your emotional responses, discipline, belief about the market, better you will be able to find system that suits you.
There are many good systems shared in TJ (or not net) which are profitable. But that needs a suitable personality. maybe the member who shared that system /or who are using it successfully have the trading personality that suits the system's behavior.

So plz spend some time in finding out your trading belief. What is your belief about why market moves, do u want to be first one (or the earliest one) to take the trade (price action based) or lazy one to wait for trend to develop (indicator based), do you think indicators can help u in understanding mkt behaviuor or not. For successful trading what u need to know, how and which indicator can help u find that out, how can use multiple dimension of market analysis to improve your edge (price , volume, time, derivatives, intermarket correlations etc).. These are some of the questions that will help you to understand yourself better. Then try to search or develop a system that fits you.
You will have to spend time to backtest it, to ensure that it has positive expectancy.
You will have to spend reasonable amount of time with any one approach to understand its performance under different mkt condition. If you want to expedite your learning, then start with identifying market condition in terms of up/down/side trend, and high/average/low volatilty. That gives you a 3by3 matrix. It is difficult to find 1 system that will perform well in all 9 boxes. but certainly u can a system that works well in few boxes. So apply it when mkt conditions are right else stay away. Till the time you develop another system for different mkt condition. IMO, a trader should have system (s) for each mkt conditions. Even if overall they are profitable in long run, the performance might be suboptimal cause by putting market condition knowledge, they can avoid losses or get higher return by going aggressive in favorable mkt.

This all is non-glamorous part of trading. Unfortunately, without going thru all this, it is difficult to reach that glamorous trading results.

Hope this helps. Regarding PM, maybe Forum mods have decided to put some constraint in terms of # of posts etc. (just guessing, I am not sure). If you want to contact me then google me and with some effort you will certainly find me.

Happy trading.

 

[DanPickUp]

Hi

I was reading the last few post and I missed the following, which is the essence of a beginning live trading money journey:

Starting trading with your own money with the idea to make money with it to live from it:

- Have a very clear idea about what strategy you want to trade at the begin. Start with simple strategies to get a quick feeling for the market and for your trading platform.

- Understand this strategy in advance to the last little detail and write this strategy down, before you do the next step. If you don't, you will already struggle with one of the next coming points.

- Know your derivative you trade to the last possible possibility to be sure what you do. ( The last two points can take a lot of time. So what? )

- Know as many resources you may can use for what ever you need. Do not underestimate this point, as this will give you an advantage on information you have to do your trade.

- If you now have your very clear plan, what kind of strategy you want to trade, you start to search for a broker, which fits your way of trading and your amount of trading money at is best. How to do this part?

- Test as many trading platforms as you can. Ask specific questions about commissions and possibility's this platform give. Do not be stupid and just jump in. That makes this boys angry and you will not get your answers you want. Prepare your self very well.

- Compare all the informations you find over the net from choose d brokers and platforms and make your own list. Take your time and notice every little detail which may are important for your trading. This can take hours. So what? You want to make money but you not want to invest time in it. He, you are in the wrong place.:annoyed:

- If you now have your list, what is important for you, start to get in touch with the providers of this platforms. If they give you the possibility to test there software, do it.

- If you now found your trading platform which has what you need for your kind of trading, clear the subscription cost. Be always friendly, but ask very specific questions to avoid any miss understanding.

- Next point are the margins. You have to be clear in detail, what your margins are. If your trading platform provider not gives sufficient informations about this subject, leave this provider and search for an other one.

- Next point are the commissions on any trade you do. Ask very clear questions about how much a round turn is and how much the exchanges fees are. This is the way you have to ask in the states. No idea in India. May some body of you inform me about that. Thank you.

- As you cleared now all this stuff, next is opening an account. Also here: Ask in advance about any possible commissions which may could occur when having an account with them and ask the broker, what security you have in case some thing happens when the broker company goes down to

- Finally: Now you have a broker with the commissions you can afford and you have a trading platform which suits your trading knowledge and strategy you want to trade to make some money.

From this point on, it is you, which decides to make it.

Hope it helps

Tc

DanPickUp

 

[chulbul]

Hi AW10,

Have sent a mail thru ur blog on niftyoptions. Please check. Awaiting ur response.