CICR System (Currency Index Cross Referencing)

[4xpipcounter]

Hourly:Even though a good portion of the move has been made, the yen is still OS and the AUD is OB, so holding on to short would not be bad over the coming few hours
4-hour: The Euro is obviously OS, and ready to head north. Nothing is really OB. Nevertheless, the Euro looks to make some favorable moves against most of the currencies on Wednesday.
Daily: The NZD remains being the most OS currency, while the Aussie has risen to neutraility. The yen and the USD are still OB and has a way to drop, so the NZD/USD and the NZD/JPY are still favored to head north over coming days.
Weekly: Nothing has been cooking for a long time.
Monthly: Look for the GBP/CHF to be the sole mention here for a long time.

And, there's your OB/OS update. IBB tomorrow with the update from the rear view mirror.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Hourly:Even though a good portion of the move has been made, the yen is still OS and the AUD is OB, so holding on to short would not be bad over the coming few hours.
The AUD/JPY continued south for the next 3 hourly candles after the post.

4-hour: The Euro is obviously OS, and ready to head north. Nothing is really OB. Nevertheless, the Euro looks to make some favorable moves against most of the currencies on Wednesday.
The Euro gained on next to nothing, as it became more OS. There are also a couple of currencies on the 4-hour that is close to OB, and I'll cover that in the next post.

Daily: The NZD remains being the most OS currency, while the Aussie has risen to neutraility. The yen and the USD are still OB and has a way to drop, so the NZD/USD and the NZD/JPY are still favored to head north over coming days.
It has been another bullish day for the NZD/USD and the NZD/JPY. There are warnings that the UP is close to an end. Even though the USD and JPY remain OB in this TF, the NZD is approaching neutrality. What may be taking the NZD's place on the OS daily is the Euro.

Weekly: Nothing has been cooking for a long time.
Monthly: Look for the GBP/CHF to be the sole mention here for a long time.
Nothing much to be said here. All you can do is come back 4 months from now and see how much the GBP/CHF has risen from current level.

And, there's your OB/OS update. IBB tomorrow with the update from the rear view mirror.

As accurate as this has been and the confidence it lends to making a trading decision, this has been in the total absence of my personal methodology. This is been strictly in gauging the most OB and OS singles currencies in each individual TF.

I wonder where Miss Forex is. I sure am glad she started this thread.
BTW, just so Miss Forex knows, I did not mean to rampage her thread. If it seems that way, then I will bail out and be happy to do so. This is has been a lot of fun. I would even start my own thread if I had to.

 

[4xpipcounter]

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I'm a little late with this post. It has been a very interesting morning around my home. We had a collie as a guest, and Tucker went nuts.
Add to that the normalities of having a constant assembly line of grandchildren brings, it is interesting!

Okay, enough of that. The blue line is the EUR. When I posted concerning it on this 4-hour, the lime, USD, and the yellow, JPY, lines were close to neutrality. The EUR line was down there all by itself. At the time I wanted to post, it was actually pointing further south. In essence, it became more OS. while the pink and light blue, AUD and NZD, respectively, continued to range off being more OB. It is a matter of time when the EUR/ AUD and the EUR/NZD will be making huge gains north.

We can now add the JPY and USD to OS, which means it is a matter of time when the AUD/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/JPY, and the NZD/JPY will be headed south.

The trader should be able to see how he can make excellent and confident trading decisions just based on OB and OS conditions of individual currencies.

Next, I'll show how to use this indicator as an oscillator, similar to the ADX.

 

[4xpipcounter]

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The picture shows the EUR being OS, but the AUD is continuing to be more OB. The EUR has begun to point up. It is a matter of time when the AUD levels and points south, and then the pair reverses direction.

Notice where the trend reversed direction. The EUR was slight OB and the AUD was very OS. The thing that is pushing the pair lower is that the AUD continues in extreme territory. Once its momentum gives out, and it levels, then the reversal begins. Momentum is already building for the EUR as a single currency.

 

[4xpipcounter]

4-hour: The opportunities abound for intraday. OS--JPY, USD, EUR, CHF, and OB--AUD, NZD. This means there are short opportunities on the AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, AUD/CHF, NZD/JPY, NZD/USD, NZD/CHF, and long opportunities on the EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD.

Dailies: Everything has played out and there is nothing on daily for now.

Weeklies: Nothing.

Monthly: The AUD is now OS, which can also be matched with the GBP on the CHF being OB.

I'd like to hear some feedback, opinions. You can even tell me I stink, but just back it up--lol.

 

[4xpipcounter]

The only way to report on the monthly picks is to wait until the end of the month to do so. Last month, cable was OS as it had been for quite awhile, and Swissy was OB, as it also has been for a long time. The GBP/CHF displayed another bullish month last month.
This month, the Aussie joined the ranks of the OB, so we add the GBP/AUD to the monthly radar.

As far as the 8 intraday picks are concerned, they were a perfect 8 for 8 yesterday.

This thread is sill not getting any worthwhile amount of hits, so it is telling me the interest in cross referencing. I'll see how it goes between now and the weekend. I might decide to post all these picks in my thread.

 

[hills_5000]

Hey Paul...bit confused...in this post u say... the aussie is overbought...and in the previous one uve said its over sold.....

do clarify...

thanks...

Edit...unless at one place u meant the AUD index...and the second place u were talking abt the "Aussie"

The only way to report on the monthly picks is to wait until the end of the month to do so. Last month, cable was OS as it had been for quite awhile, and Swissy was OB, as it also has been for a long time. The GBP/CHF displayed another bullish month last month.
This month, the Aussie joined the ranks of the OB, so we add the GBP/AUD to the monthly radar.

As far as the 8 intraday picks are concerned, they were a perfect 8 for 8 yesterday.

This thread is sill not getting any worthwhile amount of hits, so it is telling me the interest in cross referencing. I'll see how it goes between now and the weekend. I might decide to post all these picks in my thread.

 

[4xpipcounter]

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Hills, good point, because it is going to lead to something.

The FX Correlator is the best indicator I know of when it comes to measuring OB/OS conditions of individual currencies. It is also simpler than flipping between individual indexes. It shows at a glance which currencies are OB/OS relative to all the others. The accurate analysis you have seen on this thread was done through strict consideration of the FC only.

All references that I make with regards to OB/OS conditions are made by usage of the individual TF's only. As we talk any one currency could be OB and OS at the same time. Posed is the example. A week ago, the AUD (pink line) was OS on the daily. You see the rise in it. Go back to the charts on its crosses and notice significant gains against all currencies. This happened all the while it was OB on the monthly.

Now, the daily is reaching into OB territory, and agreeing with the 4-hour. The weekly is on the fence.

When referring to the AUD currency or the AUD index, it is really the same thing.

Hey Paul...bit confused...in this post u say... the aussie is overbought...and in the previous one uve said its over sold.....

do clarify...

thanks...

Edit...unless at one place u meant the AUD index...and the second place u were talking abt the "Aussie"

 

[4xpipcounter]

On the daily and 4-hour the euro is OS and the Aussie is OB. This means an outstanding trading opportunity prevails with the EUR/AUD going long.

There is also the CHF, USD, and the JPY that are OS on the 4-hour and the NZD is OB, but they are still gravitating in their respective directions.

Nothing is still cooking on the weekly, and on the monthly the GBP/AUD and the GBP/CHF remain being the longs.

 

[4xpipcounter]

This is the first day it was called wrong.

The euro was OS on the 4-hour and the Aussie was OB. Called for a move north intraday, and it looked the same on the daily. The 4-hour turned, and the euro continued more OS and the Aussie continued more OB.