Charts for the Day

Dear Friends,

My Journey as a TA...

Started in 2003 - with Metastock - using Trendlines & moving average(offcourse with crossovers) and studying patterns
2004 - continued with it
2005 - started focusing on fundamental too have upperhand
2006 - mix both, but returns were more through IPO's:clap:
2007 - Focussed on Advanced Get and 'n' number of softwares, studying models and newer analysis everyday
2008 - market busted, i got saved due to some other commitments..entered on dec2008 with more studies in arsenal, thinking i am the master now
2009 - Returns were meagre considering earlier returns(as i jumbled up shifting through various studies)
2009 End - focussed on fewer studies, started filtering
2010 - still in searched for holygrail, returns still not coming as per expectations, burned a lot in F&O
2011- Focussed on what i started earlier that is Trendlines & moving averages
and fewer patterns which i understand, more focus on price action, returns coming in were moderate to good
2012- Focus shifted to more to deliveries rather than F&O

Point of highlighting is my life came to full circle. What i started with is the best and still now it fits well in the scheme of things. In all these years my eagerness to search for holy grail all over the net, any famous expert advisors/indicators i used it..and never got to understand what is working..sometime it works, sometime it backfires.
So in all these years i read almost 100-110 TA books and have hands on atleast 8-10 TA softwares, with non countable expert advisors/indicators, and reading all free sources over the net...
For a newbie, they always get swayed by newer indicators, newer study..and no one to guide loose their capital to smart traders in the pit.

Almost 95% traders i encountered, they look at charts with lenses, i mean with indicators/EA etc...They never ever blink on price first...This is the story..and they loose in end...Rest 5% are smarter( off course we need to get into this) focussed on fewer and knows very well, what they are playing with.
Unlike 95% category, running daily expert advisors and telling what to do. If TA is that easy then machines will make million and human brain need to go to trash.
So lets start with fewer things, and try to study in depth. If we tell to draw a trendline on chart 5 analyst will come up with 5 different patterns. This is subjectivity of TA. What suits you may not prefer others. So focus on your needs.

So i am going to complete a decade in stock market, and when i look back...i think..with time i tried to outsmart others, but failed to focus on my strength...i always tried to be like others.
I am not a perfect human being, whose all trade goes right. I have my story of loosers to. The thing is dont venture into by advice of others, and also dont indulge with wrong money management.

On public forums/net, people will give you 'n' number of calls, i donno whether they really trade or just try to catch a 'Fish' in the pond.
Understand it, its your money, hard earned money, dont waste it like this. Even a Rs.1 count in the market.
So i request all my friends, please try to give in your 100% to what you study and have more focussed approach...
 
Dear Friends,

My Journey as a TA...................................

with time i tried to outsmart others, but failed to focus on my strength
Dear Anil,

Hats off for your writing. To be frank I have seen many people posted their history like this. When I started reading, I felt this is another gyan. But one line ( I have highlighted), one great line which you wrote made me read your post again and realize the meaning of your post. This feeling of outsmarting will be true for almost all people trying to do TA. I always had this feeling and today reading this line from you I realised that I should change.

I was on vacation and got blessing from Dagdu Sheth Ganesha. I asked him for success. Today came back and the first post I saw was your's. I consider this as his words. Please feel proud that atleast you have changed the inner thinking of one person and that is me.

Thanks a lot for it. In this New Year, I will pray Ganesha for your wealth and prosperity.

Thanks
Sreeram
 
Dear Anil,

Hats off for your writing. To be frank I have seen many people posted their history like this. When I started reading, I felt this is another gyan. But one line ( I have highlighted), one great line which you wrote made me read your post again and realize the meaning of your post. This feeling of outsmarting will be true for almost all people trying to do TA. I always had this feeling and today reading this line from you I realised that I should change.

I was on vacation and got blessing from Dagdu Sheth Ganesha. I asked him for success. Today came back and the first post I saw was your's. I consider this as his words. Please feel proud that atleast you have changed the inner thinking of one person and that is me.

Thanks a lot for it. In this New Year, I will pray Ganesha for your wealth and prosperity.

Thanks
Sreeram
Dear sreeram,

Thanks for your kind wishes...The purpose of my post now fulfilled... and let many minds get ignited with this...
Thanks once again...
 


Dear Friends,
our previous weekly analysis of 3rd nov and then subsequent going well.
Our relative performance chart vis-a-vis sensex showing, Bankex still good RS wise, and Realty as per our analysis, still looking good, but needed overall market strength to move ahead.
FMCG still remains best performer on 250 days basis, and Healthcare as we know breached all time highs, looking good for intermediate term.
Metal, oil&gas, Power still struggling and RS weakness still persist in these sectors.
IT although weak RS, but trying to rise, so at best it can have sideways to UP, movement in coming week in short term.

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Dear Friends,

Inspite of sensex maintaining almost flat trend, we indeed found good sectors to be in, on relative performance basis. Watch how the poster boy IT, now is the weakest of all on relative performance basis on 250 trading day basis.
Oversold IT on daily crying for a bounce, so trade wisely...
So with hopes of RBI reducing rates, we witnessed a rally in interest sensitive Banking and realty.
Now the another in make up story of metal, pointing upwards.As if it rising from ashes, posting good returns in last two weeks. Any pullback in this will be bought into.
 
Dear sreeram,

Thanks for your kind wishes...The purpose of my post now fulfilled... and let many minds get ignited with this...
Thanks once again...
Anil,

Can you please throw some light on how to read price pattern. Is it only about support, resistance, trend lines or is there something we need to look more deeper. I have always been looking at TA and realise didn't give much importance to the important thing which is the price. Your help to enlighten will be highly appreciated.

Thanks
Sreeram
 
Anil,

Can you please throw some light on how to read price pattern. Is it only about support, resistance, trend lines or is there something we need to look more deeper. I have always been looking at TA and realise didn't give much importance to the important thing which is the price. Your help to enlighten will be highly appreciated.

Thanks
Sreeram
Dear Sreeram,

Price is mostly driven by institutions who are in better position to have known to work closer with management...
An institution wanted to buy 50 lac shares of particular company didnt buy these overnight..the buying is planned periodically and structured in a manner, so that net buying price remained in a comfort zone. The last leg of their strategy is always mark up in prices. Which we see on daily as Gaps and runaway prices structure. And we as retail follow them. Similarly the story led towards the distribution phase, it is structured and final leg is mark down.

But as we know for every buyer there is a seller and viceversa. So Its actually the strong hands who knows what is coming in...But we dont know who is that strong hand. So We need to analyse price and some experts also see volume too. Like whether its a distribution bar, upthrust bar..etc..(Search for Karthik marar's write up on this, here in traderji). They are people searching for smart money buying-selling patterns.

Always see chart, with the idea if somebody always is in, where he wants to get out. Or if majority strong players out, where is the 'likely' price where they show interest in the scrip. For this we need to see prices. There are many methods, some see purely price and others in conjunction with volume.

There are some price structures and patterns, which one need to look into. For ex. If price large bullish bars with more than average volume forming in , its a strong buying indication. And every buying needed cool off with some intermittent correction, where we see some doji bars or black bars..again the rally resumes. When prices are near to resistance zone, and failed attempts will be seen buy long upper tail bars. SO one knows this is area where price is resisting, and once it is cleared shorters will be trapped. So there is a price story in the chart.And we try to 'analyse' it.

Regarding patterns, H&S, wedges, channels, triangles..yes they are good ones, but always see where they are occuring, in what time frame they are occuring...study price with unbiased view. I mean many poeple think infosys is a good company. But is it logically valid to buy it at any levels. Thats the art we need to study. And for every trade we try to get into, risk reward also need to analyse.

There is more to write up..we will discuss it..and many experts here can too highlight here there views.