Charts for the Day

[raul12]

Dear Anilji,

For positional trades into any stock, do you also do sector analysis? If yes, what points do you consider there.

 

[anilnegi]

Dear Amitrandive

Saw you thums up ....can you tell me what you understood :annoyed:

Any one can throw words like FOCUS , HARDWORK etc etc

I was expecting some scenarios which i might not be aware of

Next time instead of putting smileys ask for detials

Dear Andhra cement
read your above comment, i think u are making issue of a non issue, if u sincerely wants to learn, post your chart with your understanding in it, and ask experts here, they will always help you or give their insight about it, this is the correct way of learning but first post your charts

 

[trade4putuval]

Dear Amitrandive

Saw you thums up ....can you tell me what you understood :annoyed:

Any one can throw words like FOCUS , HARDWORK etc etc

I was expecting some scenarios which i might not be aware of

Next time instead of putting smileys ask for detials

Hi AndhraCement,

This is precisely your problem. Your EGO seems to be the cause of all your issues. Well, don't get hyper because we all were in the same boat once upon a time. It is when your capital gets wiped out, you realize that you never understood the market.

Anybody who is in the market for easy money will never understand the meaning of FOCUS and HARDWORK. I would like to add one more word, LUCK, but then it is a loose term used as an excuse.

If you analyze well and still end up on the losing side, your strategy is not correct or up to the mark. Nobody can help you here, other than yourself. You need to improvise on your own strategy (find out the cause of the failure and make correction to the strategy). Do not ever try to copy other's strategy because they follow discipline in their strategy (Strict SL and reverse trade and other stuffs like that). We will only copy their strategy but never their discipline. So even if the strategy goes against them, their discipline saves them, and they wait and watch for the next available opportunity. But we having blindly followed somebody's strategy, do not follow the discipline, and end up on a heavily losing side, and in order to regain the lost money, make more mistakes, instead of waiting for a right opportunity.

I am in the market since 2005, but I have never been able to understand the market even today inspite of having my own strategies in place. But yes, I am continuously improving my strategies and I am expecting a day when I start reaping the benefits of MY OWN STRATEGIES.

All the best to you.

 

[amitrandive]

Dear Amitrandive

Saw you thums up ....can you tell me what you understood :annoyed:

Any one can throw words like FOCUS , HARDWORK etc etc

I was expecting some scenarios which i might not be aware of

Next time instead of putting smileys ask for detials

If you seriously want to learn you can open your own thread and post charts of your trades and analysis.You need to read what was bold and posted in Anilji's post.

Mostly Anilji here talks about positional trades and not intraday trades.First we need to understand that.

It was not directed to you.It was a praise for a genuinely good thought coming from an accomplished chart technician Anilji

No need for details.Anyone who has been for a long time in the markets is wise enough to understand that.

Learn some humility and try and learn to respect others before the markets humble you completely.

Another sensible thing for all of us to do is clear all not required issues and keep this thread clutter free for learning.

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Dear Friends,

Market is not a zero sum game. If you are earning profit someone else is booking loss for the same. Its a battle for own survival. Anyone who is serious to earn need to some efforts. Its not like copying someone else style you can earn it too. Its not that easy. Your mental character is your biggest asset/liability coming into your trades.How you behave after profit/loss is your test of mental strength.

I am trading in markets since pre-2000...In my initial days i just started with magazines reading and newspapers...Investing purely on that little information...Its just buying what is in news and if getting profit book it...If loss keep averaging...

Busted my account after doubling it...First chapter over...Earned CFA, started thinking like a pure fundamental guy and investing using the same...Busted with fundamentals also...Indian markets were so rigged during those times...Any Small/midcaps scrips run like a mad one and keep falling like there was end to the world the next day...

With engineering background, i am well versed with softwares...Visited bombay got hold of TA software from one of my friend...Started learning it...With tools like, trendlines,Movingaverage, support-Resistance...and few indicators like RSI-MACD...Earned some handsome money by following simple tools...Busted the account second time in fall of 2001...TA was good but little lacked 'Focus' as i am still trying to average down the loosing scrips...Then learned some advanced TA of Elliott Wave...Then started bull run of 2003, every scrip has honeymoon run during those days...you even dont need chart/Fundamental knowledge to have profit...as IPO mania is going on, invest in IPO book 30-40% on listing day...get out...have party...Apply for multiple lots with multiple accounts in your family members name...simple...

Some of scrips are running like mad one,extending '5'th waves...but as a poor retail guy i dont have 'Patience' to sit for so long...The bubble busted in Jan-2008...i booked losses in many scrips...account was again down by 70%...Again tried hand on newer technical studies like market profile...but not have any confidence in it...

I am a regular silent visitor of TJ from 2007...learned some nuggets from saint's thread...Tradewithhunter, SH's thread...Simple strategies but still everyone is not having same results...as it takes 'Discipline' to follow it to the core...If three of your trades have loss by 3-15 method, you must be reluctant to take fourth trade...but that was the golden trade as it might overcame all losses of prior trades and still get you into profit...But how many takes that fourth trade is more important than raising doubts on method itself...

There are many gems here in TJ...Karthik marar the VSA champion...Even his VSA notes are followed by some foreign trading rooms...such is the study of this man...Its his 'Dedication' and 'Hardwork' which he is following till now...

I analysed my trades, and have a feeling i am lacking decision making to cover positions in my intraday trades...so i shifted to trading swings only...Then question arised which strategy...what method to follow...

I started with what i learned in my initial days...Support-Resistance, Moving average, Trendlines...i analysed although i am earning with this method i busted only as i am averaging scrips, reluctant to book loss...Changing stoploss frequently but still not following it...So small loss are soon converting to bigger losses...

I started to focus on price action more...reading charts without any indicators...This thread is not for teaching anybody, its for writings of my observations on market...What i am following, my thought process...I sometimes when analyse trades from starting of this thread, i laugh at myself, 'How can i go long' in downtrending scrips...Now i am a pure trendfollower guy, i react. I am not here to predict, market will do whatever it wanna do, but i will stick with my plan. and mind you, till today i am still not having that 'Discipline' to sit tight on profit trades...One thing i am now got hold off is cutting loss trades ruthlessly, but its sitting tight on profit required lot of mental character, this is what i learned in market...

This is gist of my trading journey...

For one who is new into markets...Believe yourself...Even if you got hold of 'Holygrail' still without discipline you will make hell out of it...Follow method which suits your character...We here in TJ have different methods for intraday/positional...see where you fits in...And then ask questions on that methods, but first learned it...Everyone here is cooperative, but keep the fine line of decency and respect, nobody is 'answerable' to you...

In this post i am not downgrading other methods like elliott wave, market profile...but only realized it doesnt met my mental character the process it requires...but in the way carried some good things from these methods too...Like in EW, i learned the time correction, running correction importance...In market profile, i learned its value which decides further advanced/fall... How newer auction is behaving...

And when i said, markets are here forever..i mean, dont try to hastily enter/exit trades without proper plan...Many thinks bull market is over, i need to initiate positions now only. Its not like that, unless you have green signal from your study , wait ...dont jump in...Else you will be counterparty to the profit trader...

So have a method of your choice and learned it to the core...

 

[monkeybusiness]

Dear Friends,

Market is not a zero sum game. If you are earning profit someone else is booking loss for the same. Its a battle for own survival. Anyone who is serious to earn need to some efforts. Its not like copying someone else style you can earn it too. Its not that easy. Your mental character is your biggest asset/liability coming into your trades.How you behave after profit/loss is your test of mental strength.

I am trading in markets since pre-2000...In my initial days i just started with magazines reading and newspapers...Investing purely on that little information...Its just buying what is in news and if getting profit book it...If loss keep averaging...

Busted my account after doubling it...First chapter over...Earned CFA, started thinking like a pure fundamental guy and investing using the same...Busted with fundamentals also...Indian markets were so rigged during those times...Any Small/midcaps scrips run like a mad one and keep falling like there was end to the world the next day...

With engineering background, i am well versed with softwares...Visited bombay got hold of TA software from one of my friend...Started learning it...With tools like, trendlines,Movingaverage, support-Resistance...and few indicators like RSI-MACD...Earned some handsome money by following simple tools...Busted the account second time in fall of 2001...TA was good but little lacked 'Focus' as i am still trying to average down the loosing scrips...Then learned some advanced TA of Elliott Wave...Then started bull run of 2003, every scrip has honeymoon run during those days...you even dont need chart/Fundamental knowledge to have profit...as IPO mania is going on, invest in IPO book 30-40% on listing day...get out...have party...Apply for multiple lots with multiple accounts in your family members name...simple...

Some of scrips are running like mad one,extending '5'th waves...but as a poor retail guy i dont have 'Patience' to sit for so long...The bubble busted in Jan-2008...i booked losses in many scrips...account was again down by 70%...Again tried hand on newer technical studies like market profile...but not have any confidence in it...

I am a regular silent visitor of TJ from 2007...learned some nuggets from saint's thread...Tradewithhunter, SH's thread...Simple strategies but still everyone is not having same results...as it takes 'Discipline' to follow it to the core...If three of your trades have loss by 3-15 method, you must be reluctant to take fourth trade...but that was the golden trade as it might overcame all losses of prior trades and still get you into profit...But how many takes that fourth trade is more important than raising doubts on method itself...

There are many gems here in TJ...Karthik marar the VSA champion...Even his VSA notes are followed by some foreign trading rooms...such is the study of this man...Its his 'Dedication' and 'Hardwork' which he is following till now...

I analysed my trades, and have a feeling i am lacking decision making to cover positions in my intraday trades...so i shifted to trading swings only...Then question arised which strategy...what method to follow...

I started with what i learned in my initial days...Support-Resistance, Moving average, Trendlines...i analysed although i am earning with this method i busted only as i am averaging scrips, reluctant to book loss...Changing stoploss frequently but still not following it...So small loss are soon converting to bigger losses...

I started to focus on price action more...reading charts without any indicators...This thread is not for teaching anybody, its for writings of my observations on market...What i am following, my thought process...I sometimes when analyse trades from starting of this thread, i laugh at myself, 'How can i go long' in downtrending scrips...Now i am a pure trendfollower guy, i react. I am not here to predict, market will do whatever it wanna do, but i will stick with my plan. and mind you, till today i am still not having that 'Discipline' to sit tight on profit trades...One thing i am now got hold off is cutting loss trades ruthlessly, but its sitting tight on profit required lot of mental character, this is what i learned in market...

This is gist of my trading journey...

For one who is new into markets...Believe yourself...Even if you got hold of 'Holygrail' still without discipline you will make hell out of it...Follow method which suits your character...We here in TJ have different methods for intraday/positional...see where you fits in...And then ask questions on that methods, but first learned it...Everyone here is cooperative, but keep the fine line of decency and respect, nobody is 'answerable' to you...

In this post i am not downgrading other methods like elliott wave, market profile...but only realized it doesnt met my mental character the process it requires...but in the way carried some good things from these methods too...Like in EW, i learned the time correction, running correction importance...In market profile, i learned its value which decides further advanced/fall... How newer auction is behaving...

And when i said, markets are here forever..i mean, dont try to hastily enter/exit trades without proper plan...Many thinks bull market is over, i need to initiate positions now only. Its not like that, unless you have green signal from your study , wait ...dont jump in...Else you will be counterparty to the profit trader...

So have a method of your choice and learned it to the core...

Very inspirational post Anil Sir. Thanks.

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Dear Anilji,

For positional trades into any stock, do you also do sector analysis? If yes, what points do you consider there.

Dear Raul12,

Positional trades is what i hold for weeks to months...Basic requirement is stock must be in uptrend... Uptrend is when stock is above 200 SMA...and 200 SMA is turning up the better it is...

As you know, generally certain sectors stocks like sugar(cyclical) and textile moves with trends in sector itself...So yes, its a added benefit to focus on sector specific group of stocks...

The thing lacking here is we dont have sectoral index for textile, sugar, cement..etc..So for this sectors you need to focus on 4-5 leader stocks of this sectors and keep tracking with your regular list...

For ex: Almost many sugar stocks turned up from aug-sep-2015 while nifty bottomed in february-2016...so if you have just focussed on nifty you might have missed sugar rally...

First sign of strength for stocks in intermediate term is moving above 50 SMA, always keep in mind, it should alert you something underlying changing, and if same thing is getting in other stocks from same sector, you should be prepared for change...

 

[amitrandive]

Dear Raul12,

The thing lacking here is we dont have sectoral index for textile, sugar, cement..etc..So for this sectors you need to focus on 4-5 leader stocks of this sectors and keep tracking with your regular list...

For ex: Almost many sugar stocks turned up from aug-sep-2015 while nifty bottomed in february-2016...so if you have just focussed on nifty you might have missed sugar rally...

Anilji

Any way to keep a track of stocks in these sectors where there are no sectoral indices?

Waiting for 52 week highs may miss many big trends.

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Anilji

Any way to keep a track of stocks in these sectors where there are no sectoral indices?

Waiting for 52 week highs may miss many big trends.

Dear amit,

I followed most of stocks from Nifty500, rest i add/delete manually to see how good stock is...i dont go for stock moving in circuits...Nifty500 cover almost many sectors...arrange them sector wise, delete few who are trading below 20-30...And above 3000(you can choose your price)...Now focus on this list regularly, try it to be daily...

Generally if one is indicator obsessed then go for RSI, weekly oversold touching 30 are generally good points to turn stock up, not a certainly magic thing but it goes for many scrips...

Rest i use moving average...

Above 10 SMA - Very short term trend UP
Above 20 SMA - Short term UP
Above 50 SMA - Intermediate Up
Above 200 SMA- Long term UP

--------------------------------------

Why i started using these averages is bcoz of backtest...i had defined certain strategy of trend following and breakouts...i tested it with Trading Blox software...

I then tried to study signals with simple moving averages, then got stunned...results are almost in line with SMA's with lesser drawdown in moving averages...Then taken a scrip and studied signals, also with MA's they are appearing almost with a lag sometimes of 1-2 bar or lead with 1-2 bar...thats ok for me...

--------------------------------------

I analysed my past trades and thought it can be better managed with MA's and using ATR(Average true range)...So focussing on the same since past few 6-months...

 

[amitrandive]

Dear amit,

I followed most of stocks from Nifty500, rest i add/delete manually to see how good stock is...i dont go for stock moving in circuits...Nifty500 cover almost many sectors...arrange them sector wise, delete few who are trading below 20-30...And above 3000(you can choose your price)...Now focus on this list regularly, try it to be daily...

Generally if one is indicator obsessed then go for RSI, weekly oversold touching 30 are generally good points to turn stock up, not a certainly magic thing but it goes for many scrips...

Rest i use moving average...

Above 10 SMA - Very short term trend UP
Above 20 SMA - Short term UP
Above 50 SMA - Intermediate Up
Above 200 SMA- Long term UP

--------------------------------------

Why i started using these averages is bcoz of backtest...i had defined certain strategy of trend following and breakouts...i tested it with Trading Blox software...

I then tried to study signals with simple moving averages, then got stunned...results are almost in line with SMA's with lesser drawdown in moving averages...Then taken a scrip and studied signals, also with MA's they are appearing almost with a lag sometimes of 1-2 bar or lead with 1-2 bar...thats ok for me...

--------------------------------------

I analysed my past trades and thought it can be better managed with MA's and using ATR(Average true range)...So focussing on the same since past few 6-months...

Thanks for the detailed answer !!!

What kind of simple signal from moving averages ?

Plain price crossing moving average or crossover of two moving averages?

Also do you use a log scale for drawing trendlines and patterns?

Volume significance you have already stated earlier and many posts.