breakout

4candles

Well-Known Member
#41
4candles said:
Try this:-
in MStock go to TOOLS>OpTIONS (application Properties)> General Tab. Find Workspace properties, here check restore workspaceon start up box.

Try it & come back if u have a problem

regards
4candles
very very sorry! supposed to post this post somewhere else in CMLEE's post/doubt actually. My mistake, Sorry again

regards
4candles
 
#42
after a breakout how much fall below the support line is considered as false breakout?
does volume come into consideration when we try to determine false breakout?
 
#43
karthikmarar said:
Hi Guys

The idea behind this post is to Alert about possible breakout candidates. It is not a recommendation to Buy. I am just sharing with you the study done by me. It is for individuals to see if an oppurtunity exists and captitalize on it.

The Possible breakout is candidate is MAHINDRA UGINE STEEL.

MAHINDRA UGINE gapped up on Friday with huge volume. Closed up 14.500 at 126.750. Volume was 1,652% above average.

Fridays Quote

Open High Low Close Volume
114.900 134.700 114.900 126.750 866,680

TECHNICAL DETAILS

Technical Outlook

Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 108.43 106.65 98.61
Volatility: 84 57 68
Volume: 104,377 42,217 72,714

Technical Indicators

The Stochastic Oscillator is 75.3363.
The current value of the RSI is 72.11. This is an overbought Indication.
The current value of the CCI is 256.This is an overbought Indication.
MACD has generated a BUY signal.
Chande Momentum Oscillator is 37.8893.

SOME FUNDAMENTALS

Business: Manufacturers and dealers of mild, tool, alloy and special steels.

Financials
The company has shown 46% increase in sales for the year-ended March 2005 compared to the previous year. PAT increased by 689%.

However the 1st quarter of 2005-2006 shows a decrease of 3% in sales and 43.9% in PAT.

EPS for 2005 was 17.9 compared to 1.9 for 2004

Share Holding Pattern as of June
Promoter : 53.4
Mutual Funds : 5.32
Other Institutions : 9.89
FII : 7.25
Public : 19.06

The company declared a dividend of 30% and approved during the AGM in July

The price chart is also enclosed for ready reference.
Hope you will find this usefull. Please post your comment if any.

regards

karthik
HI KARTHIK

WHICH CHART SOFTWARE YOU USE?
I DONT HAVE ANY CHART SOFTWARE
IF YOU HAVE ANY FREE SOFTWARE THEN PLZ
SEND ME A LINK OF THAT SITE

THANKS
 

karthikmarar

Well-Known Member
#45
VICKY_SEEKINGINR said:
HI KARTHIK

WHICH CHART SOFTWARE YOU USE?
I DONT HAVE ANY CHART SOFTWARE
IF YOU HAVE ANY FREE SOFTWARE THEN PLZ
SEND ME A LINK OF THAT SITE

THANKS
Dear Vicky

I use Metastock for my Analysis. About Free software there are many posts in this forum under the software section. I know of the following

1. Wallstreet Analyzer - www.lathuy.com
2. FC charts www.spacejock.com

You can also try Refined Elliot Trader (http://www.elliottician.com/showpage.asp?p=21). This is also free. However the normal Indicators like MACD, Moving average etc are limited.

Personally I was comfortable with Wallstreet Analyzer. I used it before getting Metastock. Some members in this forum did mention that Fcharts is also good.

All these software get data from Yahoo. As far I know that yahoo has resumed providing Historical Data for Indian stocks which they had stopped in June. But looks like they have Historical data for limited number of shares only. But they seem to have atleast 3 months data. Hence this may be a problem. If you have a problem with data do let me know I can try to convert my metstock data into ASCII format suitable for wallstreet or Fcharts.

regards

karthik
 

karthikmarar

Well-Known Member
#46
saint said:
Hi Karthik,
Nice analysis,my friend.........keep em coming!!

Saint
Sharestar said:
Nice analysis, Karthik.

Keep it up
Dear Saint and sharestar

Thanks. I will try my best to keep posting my Analysis (..done with my little knowledge... :eek: ). It may be of some use to the members. Maybe I will post a separate thread and not encroach on cmlees thread :) .

Best regards

Karthik
 
#48
Are you sure Refined Elliot Trader (http://www.elliottician.com/showpage.asp?p=21) is free?
i have installed this program and it ask me for activation code..
 

karthikmarar

Well-Known Member
#50
cmlee said:
after a breakout how much fall below the support line is considered as false breakout?
does volume come into consideration when we try to determine false breakout?
The price dropping and remaining below the support line itself is considered a false breakout. There is no "how much below". It may even go down to the next support line. Also volume is not a consideration, the drop may be on small volumes.( I have noticed that normally volume decreases)

I am enclosing the chart of Alok Textile showing a false breakout in September 2004. Please note that it is not an ideal example. But this is the only one I could get hold of now. It does present some idea of a false breakout.

Normally in a break out after the penetration of the resistance line, the traders are reluctant to accept the new higher price level and there will be selling pressure. The price will then return to earlier resistance / present support level. This is called the TRADERS REMORSE. The action of the price after the Traders Remorse is very crucial. The price may rise to higher level from the support line signaling the breakout. If the general feeling is still that the new price is not warranted then selling persists and price goes down further. This results in a Bull trap (refer Saint's post) or False breakouts.

Iam enclosing the Chart of Alok Textile showing the recent breakout. The Traders Remorse is quite visible in this.

Thus it may be a better idea to enter the stock after the upturn from the pullback (trader remorse ). see chart.

Hope I was able to clarify your doubt.

reagrds

karthik
 
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