fundamental View :
the Indian Economy is growing by 8 % last quarter.our economy is in the fourth stage of development and very soon reach the fifth and final stage in next 5 years where in any product or good can be made in india such as from Aeroplane to Computers in short the country can produce any item which it wants.
When indian GDP will reach 1000 Bn $ the demand for cars will grow dramaticaly from current levels. at the current year our economy reaches about 650 Bn $ .
So the demand will grow.The per capita income will grow and so the domestic market for every item will grow rapidly.
by historical data from US Economy we can predict which sector will grow maximum.
At current top profitable companies in the us Banking,Finance,Energy,Pharma,Retail,Service related sectors and technolgy sector have maximum companies in their list such as Exxon Mobile,City Group,Wall Mart,Microsoft,Pfizer all these companies have profit from the range of 20,,000 Crore to 69,000 crore a Year.
So in the indian context in next five years the large companies in each of these sectors will grow dramatically and hence the sales and profit will grow more than small and mid caps generally.
Few quality mid caps can survive but the large one can get maximum benefit.
Also With interest rate set to rise and Cyclical nature of Ivestment Cycle will reduce ROCE Of the companies.
So The large one from Banking like ICICI,HDFC Bank and HDFC will grow more than small one.
Same in the case for ONGC.
In the Infrastructure related sectors all the companies in the Power,Construction,capital goods will give handsome return for next 2-3 years because at our size of economy no other country in the world has such poor state of infrastructure such as road,power,airport.
So in this sector lot of work still has to be done .
that's why stock such as Gammon,Nagarjun,IVRCL,Simplex Concrete,Praj Ind,Jyoti Structure,Kalptaru,Havell's,BEML,Bhel,ABB,Siemens,Patel Engg goes in just one direction that is upmove.
Earnings forecast for 2006-2007 :
Research by leading brokerage houses tells that The EPS Target of Crompton Greave for 2006 is 28 and for 2007 is 36.So market willing to give it more than 25 PE multiple.
for siemens EPS Target for next year is 83.
for ICICI bank EPS Target is 33 and then 38.
So one must look at these forecast and personallly check the quarterly results and then decide on taking a stock.
Technical :
Once you decide to invest in particular stock the Support level and Resistance level are very important.
Best thing one can do is to buy the stock at support level and when every one else is selling.
When to sell is also important.
Warren buffet has never sold scipts which he likes and thinks can grow for 20 years like coke or pepsi.
By watching the price movement one can find the support levels.
for each script the EPS Target and support level can be discussed.
So i hope some clarity will emerged.
Happy Investing.