Hello Friends!
My name : Jagannathan Sathyamoorthy
From : Mumbai
Presently in : Chennai
Proffesion : Trading in the equities and futures markets
I have just been digging up some old data on the NIFTY & SENSEX
I have dug up data untill 1st Jan. 1996
I checked out the previous Bull Market and Bear Market and some moves by the NIFTY and Sensex from Jan 1996.
The last Bull Market: (NIFTY)
30th Nov. 1998 : 800.1 Bottom
23rd Feb. 2000 : 1818.15 Top
Number of trading sessions 314
Last Bear Market : (NIFTY)
23rd Feb. 2000 : 1815.15 Top
21st Sep. 2001 : 849.95 Bottom
Number of trading sessions 397
Present Bull Market:
23rd Apr. 2003 : 920 Bottom
8th Jan 2008 : 6357.1 Top
Number of trading sessions 1185
I have deliberately left out the consolidation phase (from 21st Sep 2001 to 22nd Apr. 2003) from the count of trading sessions.
The present Bear Market is 248 trading days from 8th Jan 2008.
Another point to note is the NIFTY and the SENSEX have both given up nearly 100% of the price gained in the Bull Market during the Bear Market.
From 1996 to 1998 the NIFTY and Sensex made a few relatively small moves and even then the Bear spell lasted longer than the BUll spells.
I did go through your post at technicals in moneycontrol.com.
Yes the down trend is confirmed. But I am still not sure wether it will break the lows of October 08.
Reasons:
1: The Nifty has not retraced 50% of the fall from 4649.85 to 2252.75
50% retrcement value : 3451 (It need not retrace 50% no rule here)
2: The time element. The fall is too sharp and the pace too.
If 2625 breaks and 2570.7 Dec. Low breaks we still have 2502 to contend with.
Yes the news all around is negative, but I am still confused.
Comments and views welcome.
Regards
J Sathyamoorthy
My name : Jagannathan Sathyamoorthy
From : Mumbai
Presently in : Chennai
Proffesion : Trading in the equities and futures markets
I have just been digging up some old data on the NIFTY & SENSEX
I have dug up data untill 1st Jan. 1996
I checked out the previous Bull Market and Bear Market and some moves by the NIFTY and Sensex from Jan 1996.
The last Bull Market: (NIFTY)
30th Nov. 1998 : 800.1 Bottom
23rd Feb. 2000 : 1818.15 Top
Number of trading sessions 314
Last Bear Market : (NIFTY)
23rd Feb. 2000 : 1815.15 Top
21st Sep. 2001 : 849.95 Bottom
Number of trading sessions 397
Present Bull Market:
23rd Apr. 2003 : 920 Bottom
8th Jan 2008 : 6357.1 Top
Number of trading sessions 1185
I have deliberately left out the consolidation phase (from 21st Sep 2001 to 22nd Apr. 2003) from the count of trading sessions.
The present Bear Market is 248 trading days from 8th Jan 2008.
Another point to note is the NIFTY and the SENSEX have both given up nearly 100% of the price gained in the Bull Market during the Bear Market.
From 1996 to 1998 the NIFTY and Sensex made a few relatively small moves and even then the Bear spell lasted longer than the BUll spells.
I did go through your post at technicals in moneycontrol.com.
Yes the down trend is confirmed. But I am still not sure wether it will break the lows of October 08.
Reasons:
1: The Nifty has not retraced 50% of the fall from 4649.85 to 2252.75
50% retrcement value : 3451 (It need not retrace 50% no rule here)
2: The time element. The fall is too sharp and the pace too.
If 2625 breaks and 2570.7 Dec. Low breaks we still have 2502 to contend with.
Yes the news all around is negative, but I am still confused.
Comments and views welcome.
Regards
J Sathyamoorthy
