Analysis of Equity Funds in 'Bear' Market

[mrindia]

Assumptions are assumptions. Actually market runs on this very base. If all people start buying there wont be any seller n vice versa. At a particular point some smart guys restore to buying while other intelligent ones make exit. Its a matter of luck & chance - who comes out to be real winner.
Anyways, I personally think that market wont move alarmingly lower than this point. It may take a real long time to be buoyant. Rest is all upto future! One will face Time Risk & not Money Risk entering at this point. In other words, if you go for good picks now & horizon is long, nothing much to worry about capital corrosion in short term. Hope for the best!
Cheers!
mr india

Thanks for this information.

I liked your 'poetic language' of falling knife. But again, we can never know when it will touch the ground and then hold it. That is why I said of putting small lumpsums spread over few months.

Again, since I am planning for more than 5 years investment (which I guess is good enough to be considered "long term"), even if the NAV goes bit below from here should not matter much. Because, my normal layman thinking and assumption states that Sensex will atleast reach where it was one day i.e above 21K. So if we invest while it is around 16-17K, we still tend to gain may be after some months or after some years. Check me if I am wrong... I am literally not a financial guy....neither had any money till last few months to even think about Shares and Mutual Funds

Thanks again

Jeet

 

[life2007]

Great Explanation ! That sums it up

Assumptions are assumptions. Actually market runs on this very base. If all people start buying there wont be any seller n vice versa. At a particular point some smart guys restore to buying while other intelligent ones make exit. Its a matter of luck & chance - who comes out to be real winner.
Anyways, I personally think that market wont move alarmingly lower than this point. It may take a real long time to be buoyant. Rest is all upto future! One will face Time Risk & not Money Risk entering at this point. In other words, if you go for good picks now & horizon is long, nothing much to worry about capital corrosion in short term. Hope for the best!
Cheers!
mr india

 

[Vicky78]

One will face ‘Time Risk’ & not ‘Money Risk’ entering at this point.

Perfectly true!

As of now we do not know if we are in a middle of a correction(lasting 1-2months) or a bear market(lasting a year or so) or a structural bear market(3 years or more). Whatever the experts may say on TV i would let the 4-5 fund managers that I have employed( ) to do the work.

I am neither a trader nor an investor, for me equity mutual funds are simply long term savings instruments with higher returns and higher volatility.I shall continue my SIPs for the long term.

 

[surfingminds]

Hi !

Sorry for not being able to express clearly. I never wanted to convey that we are at bear phase for next 2 years. Gosh! Dont even think of Sensex going down to 14 to 12K. I think that is bit too pessismistic. Some statements from PC himself is encouraging.

But thank you for your suggestions

Regards

Jeet

I am also a long term investor and Equity or MF is just a part where my money is parked for long term like 10-30 years. Market centiments is one of the identified risk in this allocation and if it can go into mania their is possibility of depression also at 12 K is possible based on the factors which are coming as a risk and probability of this risk is more at the momement of time.

some of the risk we are exposed at the moment:

1. Global Events : India is capable to sustain the independent but i doubt we reached the milestone from where we can move ahead so would be impact possitive and negative both but i feel more negative side.

2. Regulator and policy makers are still not matured to the levels where provide the right environment to flourish. Their are so many clashes already being exposed.

3. I never had the feeling that the village or the weaker social emporment has been implemented successfully

4. the Reality boom their are some loop wholes its so much targeted just towards a particular class of people we still need to work on parallel infrastructure developement which might take more decades of work..

I believe in indan growth we all are possitive about it.. but the i doubt whether we are sucessful in transforming this belief to Actions and Action by not limited people but majority which can bring a real sustainable change.
Why we see similar conflicts repeating again and agian.