Amit's Trading Diary and Notes

[omufrench]

Hi,
It has been long time since the last posting. I have been ill.
The events in Cyprus have reminded everyone that problems in Europe haven`t been solved. The 'solution' of a bank levy has scared people and the prospects of civil unrest looms. Even if these problems are resolved (prospects look bleak), Luxembourg seems to be the next one to inflict/endure more of the same.
Picking stocks in this kind of a market has proved extremely difficult for me. Shorting the market seems more logical and profitable.

My Portfolio:
Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
GOLDBEES, 2849.23, -1.48%, 55.64%
WIPRO, 449, -3.22%, 1.61%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 42.75%

Explanation:
1. GOLDBEES: Gold has gone up about 0.50% , as a result of the crisis in Europe. It should go up more in the near future.
2. WIPRO : IT seems to be moving with NIFTY. It seems to be the one with highest probability to do well, if the market moves up.

Also,
1. SONASTEER - This stock fell and broke my 10% stop-loss. I cut my position. :annoyed:

Thanks for reading,
Amit

 

[omufrench]

Hi,
Good evening on a day when the market is euphoric. Makes you question your sanity and that of the markets!! None of the problems (in Europe) have been solved. I guess the 4th quarter earnings will provide the much-needed reality-check.
My Portfolio:
Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
GOLDBEES, 2849.23, -1.79%, 55.65%
WIPRO, 449, 0.14%, 1.61%
HOVS, 29.75, -9.08%, 1.63%
NIFTY 5300 PE, 5.0, -30.00%, 0.14%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 42.75%

Explanation:
1. GOLDBEES should fall because of the exuberant markets.
2. WIPRO has made a smart recovery.
3. HOVS made a Three-White-Soldiers candlestick pattern. There has been profit-booking on it. It is hovering near my stop-loss.
4. NIFTY 5300 PE were bought because I don't trust the up-move. It is crude attempt at a hedge. But then, all hedges are inherently crude.

Thanks for reading,
Amit.

 

[omufrench]

Hi,
I am logging on a day when the market is flat, undecided. Three days of falling has tapered off. I guess, it is looking for external cues. The fall has returned the GOLD prices to the pre-selloff levels. It makes sense.

My Portfolio:
Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
GOLDBEES, 2849.23, -2.01%, 55.55%
HOVS, 29.75, -4.71%, 1.63%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 42.82%

Explanation:
1. GOLDBEES has recovered. With Kyle Bass and George Soros talking about problems in Japan http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-07/kyle-bass-japanese-retirees-will-lose-half-their-life-savings, I am extremely wary of a intense downturn.
2. HOVS is showing high volatility. Though this is undesirable, it has withstood the selling pressure well. I will sell it off in-case of a stop-loss.

Also,
1. WIPRO made a recovery on Friday. I sold it off (fearing more pressure due to sell-off) at 452.92 (avged.) . It failed to show an up-move.
2. NIFTY 5300 PE increased in value due to falling market. I sold it on Friday at 10.80. I wanted to build up a bigger position, but the market moved down before me. :thumb:

Thanks for reading,
Amit

 

[omufrench]

Hi,
Gold, Silver, BitCoins and all alternative currencies have taken a severe beating. My Gold position has been savaged . It is down 6.59% as (of my logging in). The degree of the down-move must be exaggerate with the execution of Margin Calls. Else, there is more price-drop around the corner.

My Portfolio:
Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
GOLDBEES, 2849.23, -10.34%, 55.54%
HOVS, 29.75, -2.52%, 0.37%
JAYSREETEA, 97.38, -2.85%, 5.77%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 37.62%

1. GOLDBEES reflects the savage beating Wondering about the stoploss and how to execute it.
2. HOVS - I am liquidating the position. I sold off the initial large chuck at 29.55. This position has been stagnant for long time interval.
3. JAYSREETEA - It made a possible W recovery.

Thanks for reading,
Amit

 

[omufrench]

Hi,
The bloodbath in Gold is complete. I have ended the agony by cutting the position. As of now, I don't have the requisite skill to develop positions in alternate currencies. I have decided to stay away for a while. As suggested by Warren Buffet, "You don't have to swing at everything--you can wait for your pitch". More studying needed here.

My Portfolio:
Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
JAYSREETEA, 97.38, -3.37%, 6.25%
AUROPHARMA, 178.80, 3.33%, 5.91%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 87.84%

Explanation:
1. JAYSREETEA - It seems to have made a W pattern , but is trading in a horizontal band now. I am watching it for a definite move.
2. AUROPHARMA - It made a V recovery with high volumes. It seems to be moving towards a price-band of about 190-200. :thumb:

Note:
1. GOLDBEES - Sold it off at 2504. A loss of -15.59% was booked. My losses for lifetime (5 years) comprises mostly of my losses on Gold (-15.59% + -3.46% = -19.46%). The position size has made it painful. An expensive lesson learnt.
2. HOVS - This stock was trading in a flat pattern and lacked a definite up-move. I sold it off at a loss of 1.46%. The position sizing made the loss, palatable.

Thanks for reading,
Amit

 

[omufrench]

Hi,
After the complete destruction of Gold and other safe havens, I am confronted with the issue of creating new inflation/panic hedges. I think, this is a common dilemma for all to face. I think, due to lack of opportunities, stocks may rally, on the back of buying. Stocks are known to offer good returns in an inflationary environment.
As always, Time will tell.

My Portfolio:
Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
JAYSREETEA, 97.39, -3.63%, 6.24%
AUROPHARMA, 181.16, 1.21%, 12.50%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 81.26%

Explanation :
1. JAYSREETEA is trading in a flat price band. I am holding onto it but will dump it in case of a downturn.
2. AUROPHARMA is moving up. I have increased my position.

Thanks for reading,
Amit

 

[omufrench]

Hi,
Expiry week is done with. Gold has recovered about 50% of its fall. There seems to be a tussle between Paper Gold Shorts and Physical Gold Buying. There has been a record buying of Solid Gold. Something has to give.
There is a weird bull run on. But I want to watch carefully and sometimes, use Short-term out-of-the-money Puts to preserve values. They have served me well before. I think that the bull run is a result of destruction of Gold as a safe haven. Feel free to point out other reasons (with quantitative data).

My Portfolio:

Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
JAYSREETEA, 97.39, -4.76%, 6.24%
AUROPHARMA, 185.89, 2.43%, 33.12%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 60.63%

Explanation:
1. JAYSREETEA is still trading in a flat price band. I am waiting and watching it. :annoyed:
2. AUROPHARMA moved up. I increased my position. The large position size is a result of my averaging into the trade. It seems to be tracking the index.

As always, thanks for reading. Please feel free to comment.
Amit

 

[omufrench]

Hi,
Gold is on its back up. But, having being burnt twice, I am staying away from it. I want to figure out a new way of trading it before a re-entry.
The market is on a high. All indicators are pointing to a over-bought scenario. But I feel that the money-printing and destruction of all known safe havens will result in further buying. New highs seem imminent.

My Portfolio:

Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
JAYSREETEA, 97.39, -3.94%, 6.09%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 93.91%

Explanation:
1. JAYSREETEA is in holding pattern. It has been in in that trading zone for a while. I am waiting and watching it for up/down moves. :annoyed:

Also:
1. AUROPHARMA was facing a resistance at about 205. I sold it off early at 200, logging a +7.59% gain. The exit is early, but I am looking at creating a new position when the resistance is broken

Thanks for reading,
Amit

 

[omufrench]

Hi,
This Result season is turning out to be complete opposite to all recent Result seasons. The market is steaming ahead in bull run. I still think the destruction of gold safe-havens have resulted in the money-printing fuelled equity-buying binge. Companies are making their new highs. It seems to be difficult to short anything.

My Portfolio:

Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
BHARATFORG, 241.80, -0.5%, 1.64%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 98.36%

Explanation:
1. BHARATFORG seems to be on an up-trend. It broke a resistance band about 238-239. It is a new position.

Also,
1. JAYSREETEA fell rapidly. I closed the position at 89.55 taking a loss of -8.05%. The position size wasn't large, but I feel that I held onto to the trade too long. Lesson learnt.

Thanks for reading , as always,
Amit

 

[omufrench]

Hi,
After Monday's profit booking and Tuesday's indecision, the bull run has continued today. The profit booking has refreshed the rally. I cant see it abating in the near term. The economic facts have remained the same.
Having said that, Monday and Tuesday were tense for me.

My portfolio:

Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
BHARATFORG, 241.80, -4.8%, 1.64%
CENTRALBK, 71.70, -0.56%, 1.65%
PIDILITIND, 289.40, 0.57%, 12.43%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 84.35%

Explanation:
1. BHARATFORG fell with Nifty on Monday. It seems to be clawing back.
2. CENTRALBK made a bull engulfing and broke a resistance at 72.30. I bought an initial position on Monday.
3. PIDILITIND broke a resistance at 276.90 and is moving up. I started my entry on Monday.

Thanks for reading,
Amit