Amit's Trading Diary and Notes

#1
Hi,
My name is Amit. I am attempting to maintain a trading diary here. I will be logging my trades and breakup of portfolio for everyone to see. Please feel free to comment as these will help me become a better trader.

My portfolio :
GOLDBEES = 85.40%
AUROPHARMA = 17.95%
NIFTY 5200 Puts = 3.94%
CASH = 0%

The reasoning behind this is as follows:
1) The large position in Gold is an "inflation hedge". As central bank money printing is rampant and currency pegs are being maintained, the inflation has become a worry for me. Cash looses values. Hence, all the cash (which cannot be deployed ) has been parked in GOLD. :)

2) AUROPHARMA - I started picking this stock up starting at 175. I am averaging into the position. The strong trend was the reason. I want to hold it till 204. I believe that level to be a resistance. :)

3) NIFTY 5200 Puts - I have bot this incase that FDI reforms aren't ratified and the markets falls. This is my first event-oriented bet and is a loosing position as of now. :down:

Please feel free to comment on my positions. The questioning/probing will help me.
Thanks for reading
Amit
 
#2
Hi,
Four days have passed since my last update. Market is bullish. The Govt, I guess, is going to get the votes for the FDI Bill (or whatever it is called :) ). My put options have been mauled as a result.
I am sorry about the sketchy description of my portfolio. I have included more data this time. However, I have excluded the amounts (of money) involved, as I try to think in terms of Percentages. Hope it gives a better idea of my thinking :)

My portfolio :
Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
GOLDBEES, 3005.09, -0.91%, 59.00%
AUROPHARMA, 185.61, 6.46%, 25.88%
SUDAR, 160.02, 7.08%, 13.75%
NIFTY 5200 Puts, 24.75, -87.27%, 1.04%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 0.00%


The reasoning behind this is :
1) AUROPHARMA has continued its upward trend. I have increased my position as a result.:thumb:
2) SUDAR is a new pick. It has been on a strong upward trend for sometime. I entered after the breaking of resistance at 146.9. :)
3) GOLDBEES has been sold to acquire these positions.
4) CASH is zero as GOLDBEES (ie Gold) is my "inflation hedge".
5) NIFTY Puts are a loosing position. I am waiting for the voting before dumping them. :down:

The presentation of data in a tabular form is a challenge for me. I tried hard but as u can see, I failed. :D. Any tips are welcome.!!

Please feel free to comment on my positions. The questioning/probing will help me.
Thanks for reading,
Amit
 
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#4
Hi Akhil,
First of all, I would like to thank you for reading my postings and replying. :)

The Nifty 5200 Dec Puts bet is one that went sideways. I had started my entry into the position on 15th Oct. At that time, NIFTY was between 5600-5700 in a channel. My belief (rather, hope, on hindsight :) ) was that
1) FDI Bill will fail
2) the Govt. will have to endure a no-confidence motion. It will resign.
3) The market will fall to the next support at 5200.

The Puts wouldn't have ended in-the-money, but I had taken profits by cutting the position prematurely.
Kind of like Nassem Taleb's Black Swan Scenarios. :)

But, as u can see, the market moved the other way. I have written off this trade as a loss. But the learning (in it) will persist.

Thanks for reading,
Amit
 
#5
Hi,
An extremely eventful day has passed. FDI has been pushed through. I will have to wait and see its effect on the market. This could turn into a bull rally. On the other hand, the market could have already factored in the news, i.e. profit booking.

My portfolio :
Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
GOLDBEES, 3005.09, -1.43%, 40.27%
AUROPHARMA, 187.34, 4.04%, 30.02%
SUDAR, 165.71, 1.80%, 28.61%
NIFTY 5200 Puts, 24.75, -88.08%, 1.05%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 0.00%


The reasoning behind this is :
1) AUROPHARMA has continued its upward trend. I have increased my position as a result.:gunsmilie:
2) SUDAR has continued its upward trend. I have increased my position as a result. However, I cant help but, feel that I have been too hasty in this increment in size. :confused:
3) GOLDBEES has been sold to acquire these positions. :thumb:
4) CASH is zero as GOLDBEES (ie Gold) is my "inflation hedge".
5) NIFTY Puts are a loosing position. The votes are out. I want to wait and have a look at the markets tomorrow before dumping them. No hopes here. It just didnt workout.. :down: :fatigue:

Thanks for reading,
Amit
 
#6
Hi,
Friday was a bad day for the portfolio. The profit-booking/Friday effect was in full swing. The two new positions (ZEEL and SUDAR) suffered as a result. I am bullish about the market. I feel that it should rally this week, shrugging off the Friday effect.

My portfolio :
Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
GOLDBEES, 3005.09, -2.03%, 40.16%
NIFTY 5200 Puts, 24.75, -92.12%, 1.04%
SUDAR, 165.71, -3.72%, 28.53%
ZEEL, 214.73, -2.39%, 3.5%
AUROPHARMA, 187.34, 3.07%, 29.94%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 0.00%


The reasoning behind this is :
1) AUROPHARMA has had an upward trend. I have a big position. :)
2) SUDAR, also, has had an upward trend. I have a big position. :confused:
3) ZEEL is a new position. A breaking of a key resistance at high volumes, was the trigger for this acquistion. :cool:
3) GOLDBEES has been sold to acquire these positions. :)
4) CASH is zero as GOLDBEES (ie Gold) is my "inflation hedge".
5) NIFTY Puts are a loosing position. No hopes here. I will have to dump these this week. :(

Thanks for reading,
Amit.
 
#7
Hi,
It was a negative week for my portfolio. I have had to dump my positions in SUDAR (lack of an up move) and NIFTY 5200 Puts (stopping the pain). I am getting the feeling that the bull-move has ended. This week could be a market consolidating or falling.
My portfolio :
Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
GOLDBEES, 2999.34, -1.86%, 58.69%
AUROPHARMA, 187.34, -2.13%, 28.72%
JPASSOCIAT, 105.60, -3.88%, 3.36%
GUJNRECOKE, 20.70, -3.14%, 3.37%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 5.86%

The reasoning behind this is :
1) AUROPHARMA is a big position. I am watching this carefully for the change in trend. :annoyed:
2) JPASSOCIAT and GUJNRECOKE are new positions. I am looking at building these up (in case of an up move) else dumping them. :confused:
3) GOLDBEES has been bought from offloading the old positions
4) CASH is near-zero as GOLDBEES (ie Gold) is my "inflation hedge".

Thanks for reading,
Amit.
 
#8
Hi,
A beginning of a new week. It is a expiry week too. So I am expecting volatility.
Over the last few weeks, I am beginning to question the validity of Gold as my inflation hedge. This has occurred as Gold isn`t moving up at all. This may be due to the fact that the price of Gold is subject to manipulation by interested parties. I have stopped taking new positions in GOLDBEES as a result.

Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
GOLDBEES, 2999.34, -2.75%, 56.92%
AUROPHARMA, 187.34, 4.62%, 14.32%
GUJNRECOKE, 20.88, -1.80%, 6.78%
HINDALCO, 130.75, -0.84%, 6.83%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 15.15%

The explanation :
1) GOLDBEES - I am confused by the lack of movement despite the unsolved troubles of Europe, etc. So, I am waiting and watching it. :confused:
2) AUROPHARMA - I think that the resistances at 202 is a hard one to break. I have booked profit and will exit the position before it is hit. A brand new position will be built on the other side. I like this stock. :clapping:
3) GUJNRECOKE - I have increased my position on the up-move. :)
4) HINDALCO - This is a new position. I have started averaging into it. I plan to use 126.5 as a key support. :)

Also,
1) JPASSOCIAT -I cut my position on this stock after it broke a support at 102.2. It can rebound off 96.35 approx.

Thanks for reading,
Amit
 
#9
Hi,
I am posting this on the last week of the year. It has been a month of everything trading-in-a-zone. The fact that Gold collapsed about 3% in the month, compounded my problems :(. Though the price of Gold seemed to be manipulated and hence, is incorrectly priced (considering the inflation due to more money-printing to come), I am watching it carefully. The point-of-view will have to be changed with a further price-drop. As the Gujarati saying goes," Bhav Bhagwan Che." :)

My portfolio :
Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
GOLDBEES, 2999.34, -3.13%, 56.92%
AUROPHARMA, 187.34, 1.90%, 14.32%
HINDALCO, 130.75, -1.03%, 6.83%
PRISMCEM, 51.10, -3.03%, 3.37%
GUJNRECOKE, 20.88, -2.75%, 6.78%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 11.77%

The explanation :
1) GOLDBEES - As described in the beginning, I am waiting and watching it.
2) AUROPHARMA - I have booked profit ( halved my position) and will exit the remaining position at around 198. Hopefully, next week will be the one.
3) HINDALCO - This share has been moving sideways last week. I am watching it to see whether it continues the up-move.
4) GUJNRECOKE - This share has been moving sideways last week. I am pessimistic about it moving up. Next week will be keep-or-throw for this stock.
5) PRISMCEM - This is a new stock. It moved up after hitting about 48 (though low was a 46.25) at high volume. I am waiting to see if it continues its upmove.

As always, thanks for reading,
Amit
 
#10
Hi,
A new year has begun. December was painful due as the market was flatter than the bull-run in late November. January has begun on a nicer/bullish note. Hope it continues till for a couple of months.
I am beginning to believe that the "Reality-On/Risk-Off" trades (courtesy: www.zerohedge.com) are true. Lack of Bad News seems to be propelling the market. When the earning season comes, the balance-sheets should reveal the scale of damage. That should prompt a fall in the market.

My portfolio :
Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
GOLDBEES, 2999.34, -3.55%, 56.51%
HINDALCO, 133.33, -0.58%, 13.83%
PRISMCEM, 51.10, -2.74%, 3.35%
NMDC, 166.0, -1.48%, 3.33%
GUJNRECOKE, 20.88, -0.60%, 6.73%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 16.25%

The explanation :
1) GOLDBEES - I am waiting and watching it (for an up-move). The collapse of the Student-Loan bubble has prompted the Fed to make another bailout package. This should cause more money-printing and inflation. Gold should move up. :confused:
2) HINDALCO - This share moved up last week. I increased my position. :)
3) PRISMCEM - I am waiting to see if it continues its upmove. :annoyed:
4) NMDC - I bought a position in this. They reduced the price of lump ore, causing a fall in stock price. I want to hold it for a little while, to see what it does. :confused:
5) GUJNRECOKE - This share has been moved up last week. That made me hold on to it. I want to wait-and-watch this one. :annoyed:

Also,
1) AUROPHARMA - I have booked profit (5.25%) and exited the remaining position at 198. I like this stock and will pick it up after it continues its up-move after 202-206 zone. :clap:

The entire portfolio is in RED. These positions (except GOLDBEES)are new and small. So it doesn't worry me. I will be churning it through the next week.

Thanks for reading,
Amit
 

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