Amit's Trading Diary and Notes

[omufrench]

Hi,
My name is Amit. I am attempting to maintain a trading diary here. I will be logging my trades and breakup of portfolio for everyone to see. Please feel free to comment as these will help me become a better trader.

My portfolio :
GOLDBEES = 85.40%
AUROPHARMA = 17.95%
NIFTY 5200 Puts = 3.94%
CASH = 0%

The reasoning behind this is as follows:
1) The large position in Gold is an "inflation hedge". As central bank money printing is rampant and currency pegs are being maintained, the inflation has become a worry for me. Cash looses values. Hence, all the cash (which cannot be deployed ) has been parked in GOLD.

2) AUROPHARMA - I started picking this stock up starting at 175. I am averaging into the position. The strong trend was the reason. I want to hold it till 204. I believe that level to be a resistance.

3) NIFTY 5200 Puts - I have bot this incase that FDI reforms aren't ratified and the markets falls. This is my first event-oriented bet and is a loosing position as of now.

Please feel free to comment on my positions. The questioning/probing will help me.
Thanks for reading
Amit

 

[omufrench]

Hi,
Four days have passed since my last update. Market is bullish. The Govt, I guess, is going to get the votes for the FDI Bill (or whatever it is called ). My put options have been mauled as a result.
I am sorry about the sketchy description of my portfolio. I have included more data this time. However, I have excluded the amounts (of money) involved, as I try to think in terms of Percentages. Hope it gives a better idea of my thinking

My portfolio :
Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
GOLDBEES, 3005.09, -0.91%, 59.00%
AUROPHARMA, 185.61, 6.46%, 25.88%
SUDAR, 160.02, 7.08%, 13.75%
NIFTY 5200 Puts, 24.75, -87.27%, 1.04%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 0.00%


The reasoning behind this is :
1) AUROPHARMA has continued its upward trend. I have increased my position as a result.:thumb:
2) SUDAR is a new pick. It has been on a strong upward trend for sometime. I entered after the breaking of resistance at 146.9.
3) GOLDBEES has been sold to acquire these positions.
4) CASH is zero as GOLDBEES (ie Gold) is my "inflation hedge".
5) NIFTY Puts are a loosing position. I am waiting for the voting before dumping them.

The presentation of data in a tabular form is a challenge for me. I tried hard but as u can see, I failed. . Any tips are welcome.!!

Please feel free to comment on my positions. The questioning/probing will help me.
Thanks for reading,
Amit

 

[akhill]

A put which is 700 points away, bought at premium of 24.75.. Am i missing something ?

 

[omufrench]

Hi Akhil,
First of all, I would like to thank you for reading my postings and replying.

The Nifty 5200 Dec Puts bet is one that went sideways. I had started my entry into the position on 15th Oct. At that time, NIFTY was between 5600-5700 in a channel. My belief (rather, hope, on hindsight ) was that
1) FDI Bill will fail
2) the Govt. will have to endure a no-confidence motion. It will resign.
3) The market will fall to the next support at 5200.

The Puts wouldn't have ended in-the-money, but I had taken profits by cutting the position prematurely.
Kind of like Nassem Taleb's Black Swan Scenarios.

But, as u can see, the market moved the other way. I have written off this trade as a loss. But the learning (in it) will persist.

Thanks for reading,
Amit

 

[omufrench]

Hi,
An extremely eventful day has passed. FDI has been pushed through. I will have to wait and see its effect on the market. This could turn into a bull rally. On the other hand, the market could have already factored in the news, i.e. profit booking.

My portfolio :
Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
GOLDBEES, 3005.09, -1.43%, 40.27%
AUROPHARMA, 187.34, 4.04%, 30.02%
SUDAR, 165.71, 1.80%, 28.61%
NIFTY 5200 Puts, 24.75, -88.08%, 1.05%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 0.00%


The reasoning behind this is :
1) AUROPHARMA has continued its upward trend. I have increased my position as a result.:gunsmilie:
2) SUDAR has continued its upward trend. I have increased my position as a result. However, I cant help but, feel that I have been too hasty in this increment in size.
3) GOLDBEES has been sold to acquire these positions. :thumb:
4) CASH is zero as GOLDBEES (ie Gold) is my "inflation hedge".
5) NIFTY Puts are a loosing position. The votes are out. I want to wait and have a look at the markets tomorrow before dumping them. No hopes here. It just didnt workout.. :fatigue:

Thanks for reading,
Amit

 

[omufrench]

Hi,
Friday was a bad day for the portfolio. The profit-booking/Friday effect was in full swing. The two new positions (ZEEL and SUDAR) suffered as a result. I am bullish about the market. I feel that it should rally this week, shrugging off the Friday effect.

My portfolio :
Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
GOLDBEES, 3005.09, -2.03%, 40.16%
NIFTY 5200 Puts, 24.75, -92.12%, 1.04%
SUDAR, 165.71, -3.72%, 28.53%
ZEEL, 214.73, -2.39%, 3.5%
AUROPHARMA, 187.34, 3.07%, 29.94%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 0.00%


The reasoning behind this is :
1) AUROPHARMA has had an upward trend. I have a big position.
2) SUDAR, also, has had an upward trend. I have a big position.
3) ZEEL is a new position. A breaking of a key resistance at high volumes, was the trigger for this acquistion.
3) GOLDBEES has been sold to acquire these positions.
4) CASH is zero as GOLDBEES (ie Gold) is my "inflation hedge".
5) NIFTY Puts are a loosing position. No hopes here. I will have to dump these this week.

Thanks for reading,
Amit.

 

[omufrench]

Hi,
It was a negative week for my portfolio. I have had to dump my positions in SUDAR (lack of an up move) and NIFTY 5200 Puts (stopping the pain). I am getting the feeling that the bull-move has ended. This week could be a market consolidating or falling.
My portfolio :
Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
GOLDBEES, 2999.34, -1.86%, 58.69%
AUROPHARMA, 187.34, -2.13%, 28.72%
JPASSOCIAT, 105.60, -3.88%, 3.36%
GUJNRECOKE, 20.70, -3.14%, 3.37%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 5.86%

The reasoning behind this is :
1) AUROPHARMA is a big position. I am watching this carefully for the change in trend. :annoyed:
2) JPASSOCIAT and GUJNRECOKE are new positions. I am looking at building these up (in case of an up move) else dumping them.
3) GOLDBEES has been bought from offloading the old positions
4) CASH is near-zero as GOLDBEES (ie Gold) is my "inflation hedge".

Thanks for reading,
Amit.

 

[omufrench]

Hi,
A beginning of a new week. It is a expiry week too. So I am expecting volatility.
Over the last few weeks, I am beginning to question the validity of Gold as my inflation hedge. This has occurred as Gold isn`t moving up at all. This may be due to the fact that the price of Gold is subject to manipulation by interested parties. I have stopped taking new positions in GOLDBEES as a result.

Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
GOLDBEES, 2999.34, -2.75%, 56.92%
AUROPHARMA, 187.34, 4.62%, 14.32%
GUJNRECOKE, 20.88, -1.80%, 6.78%
HINDALCO, 130.75, -0.84%, 6.83%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 15.15%

The explanation :
1) GOLDBEES - I am confused by the lack of movement despite the unsolved troubles of Europe, etc. So, I am waiting and watching it.
2) AUROPHARMA - I think that the resistances at 202 is a hard one to break. I have booked profit and will exit the position before it is hit. A brand new position will be built on the other side. I like this stock. :clapping:
3) GUJNRECOKE - I have increased my position on the up-move.
4) HINDALCO - This is a new position. I have started averaging into it. I plan to use 126.5 as a key support.

Also,
1) JPASSOCIAT -I cut my position on this stock after it broke a support at 102.2. It can rebound off 96.35 approx.

Thanks for reading,
Amit

 

[omufrench]

Hi,
I am posting this on the last week of the year. It has been a month of everything trading-in-a-zone. The fact that Gold collapsed about 3% in the month, compounded my problems . Though the price of Gold seemed to be manipulated and hence, is incorrectly priced (considering the inflation due to more money-printing to come), I am watching it carefully. The point-of-view will have to be changed with a further price-drop. As the Gujarati saying goes," Bhav Bhagwan Che."

My portfolio :
Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
GOLDBEES, 2999.34, -3.13%, 56.92%
AUROPHARMA, 187.34, 1.90%, 14.32%
HINDALCO, 130.75, -1.03%, 6.83%
PRISMCEM, 51.10, -3.03%, 3.37%
GUJNRECOKE, 20.88, -2.75%, 6.78%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 11.77%

The explanation :
1) GOLDBEES - As described in the beginning, I am waiting and watching it.
2) AUROPHARMA - I have booked profit ( halved my position) and will exit the remaining position at around 198. Hopefully, next week will be the one.
3) HINDALCO - This share has been moving sideways last week. I am watching it to see whether it continues the up-move.
4) GUJNRECOKE - This share has been moving sideways last week. I am pessimistic about it moving up. Next week will be keep-or-throw for this stock.
5) PRISMCEM - This is a new stock. It moved up after hitting about 48 (though low was a 46.25) at high volume. I am waiting to see if it continues its upmove.

As always, thanks for reading,
Amit

 

[omufrench]

Hi,
A new year has begun. December was painful due as the market was flatter than the bull-run in late November. January has begun on a nicer/bullish note. Hope it continues till for a couple of months.
I am beginning to believe that the "Reality-On/Risk-Off" trades (courtesy: www.zerohedge.com) are true. Lack of Bad News seems to be propelling the market. When the earning season comes, the balance-sheets should reveal the scale of damage. That should prompt a fall in the market.

My portfolio :
Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
GOLDBEES, 2999.34, -3.55%, 56.51%
HINDALCO, 133.33, -0.58%, 13.83%
PRISMCEM, 51.10, -2.74%, 3.35%
NMDC, 166.0, -1.48%, 3.33%
GUJNRECOKE, 20.88, -0.60%, 6.73%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 16.25%

The explanation :
1) GOLDBEES - I am waiting and watching it (for an up-move). The collapse of the Student-Loan bubble has prompted the Fed to make another bailout package. This should cause more money-printing and inflation. Gold should move up.
2) HINDALCO - This share moved up last week. I increased my position.
3) PRISMCEM - I am waiting to see if it continues its upmove. :annoyed:
4) NMDC - I bought a position in this. They reduced the price of lump ore, causing a fall in stock price. I want to hold it for a little while, to see what it does.
5) GUJNRECOKE - This share has been moved up last week. That made me hold on to it. I want to wait-and-watch this one. :annoyed:

Also,
1) AUROPHARMA - I have booked profit (5.25%) and exited the remaining position at 198. I like this stock and will pick it up after it continues its up-move after 202-206 zone. :clap:

The entire portfolio is in RED. These positions (except GOLDBEES)are new and small. So it doesn't worry me. I will be churning it through the next week.

Thanks for reading,
Amit