Afin's trading diary

[afin]

According to my understanding now momentem is negative and you can initiate fresh short below LOD(3910).


HEM

It has been very much a short. After 2.30 pm yesterday one saw a big vertical drop indeed.

 

[afin]

One of the things a trader looks forward to is stability of long term returns, or better still something to calm his or her nerves down to look at in times of distress.

Savings can be as little as 50 to rs 500 rs a day. I would like to therefore invest in some wealth compounders for a medium to long term basis.

I sought permission from @Smart_trade to post some of his suggestions on my thread here. He suggests some of the following:

• Bajaj Finance,
• HDFC Bank,
• HDFC,
• Axis Bank,
• ICICI bank,
• RBL Bank,SBI ,
• TCS,
• Asian Paints,
• Kotak Mahindra Bank,
• Biocon

It is surely heavy on the finance side of affairs, but heck if it gives me some 15% per year for the next 3 years, I couldn't ask for more at all. This means that one would effectively have a close to effective rate of around 50% atleast with very little stress So for the love of your parents, your children and immediate family plesae do start investing in a few blue chips for a rainy day.

With a medical condition staring at me and with little to no savings but only liabilities at this point, I have learnt my lesson hard. I was preparing for this for a long time but in my quest for learning a lot more about the stock exchanges and trading and investments, I had conveniently ignored all of this stuff earlier!

I know I haven't done that ever properly so far. I was far too focused on the short term benefits and discounted looking at the bigger, longer term picture but now at my age in mid-30s, I am starting to open up to the wisdom

I hope you as readers of the thread would concur as well! Do comment as to what you have to say. Your views will be most important here!

 

[sanju005ind]

One of the things a trader looks forward to is stability of long term returns, or better still something to calm his or her nerves down to look at in times of distress.

Savings can be as little as 50 to rs 500 rs a day. I would like to therefore invest in some wealth compounders for a medium to long term basis.

I sought permission from @Smart_trade to post some of his suggestions on my thread here. He suggests some of the following:

• Bajaj Finance,
• HDFC Bank,
• HDFC,
• Axis Bank,
• ICICI bank,
• RBL Bank,SBI ,
• TCS,
• Asian Paints,
• Kotak Mahindra Bank,
• Biocon

It is surely heavy on the finance side of affairs, but heck if it gives me some 15% per year for the next 3 years, I couldn't ask for more at all. This means that one would effectively have a close to effective rate of around 50% atleast with very little stress So for the love of your parents, your children and immediate family plesae do start investing in a few blue chips for a rainy day.

With a medical condition staring at me and with little to no savings but only liabilities at this point, I have learnt my lesson hard. I was preparing for this for a long time but in my quest for learning a lot more about the stock exchanges and trading and investments, I had conveniently ignored all of this stuff earlier!

I know I haven't done that ever properly so far. I was far too focused on the short term benefits and discounted looking at the bigger, longer term picture but now at my age in mid-30s, I am starting to open up to the wisdom

I hope you as readers of the thread would concur as well! Do comment as to what you have to say. Your views will be most important here!

One can never be late. Good that you have started long term investments

 

[siddhant4u]

Based on avg age of an Indian is approaching 70, you are only half way there better late than never

 

[afin]

One can never be late. Good that you have started long term investments

Based on avg age of an Indian is approaching 70, you are only half way there better late than never

Yes. I am 35 now and will soon be 36 in some 4 months! I was also speaking about the same with @Riskyman sometime back and he adviced me the same. I am now focusing all my energies on equities and liquid funds and SB a/c building. About the right time I did that

So commodities can wait. I iwll however keep giving my commentary on crude oil though! It is my favourite commodity from an analysis standpoint. So I don't want to miss analyzing it.

 

[afin]

Ours is a rain-fed economy and the monsoon/ pre-monsoon theme plays very well each year. Years ago I wrote a well acclaimed piece on how the world is running out of phosphorus and it stuck with me for long.

So based on that and a few hunches I had, I was bent on analyzing UPL's share price history over the past few years.

And boy did the data not surprise me!! I mean it did not surprise me one bit but it knocked my socks off completely when I opened my eyes to what I wanted to see .

The results are here for you to see. I am just putting in notional profits and I have also not calculated the transaction costs. One had to just invest in this quarter alone to make a real killing.

As you can observe, hold period considered was only for a duration of 4 months - the start of February to end of May with the rationale being that pre-monsoon showers start in the end of May.

I am yet to look at the other fertilizer based shares. I still can't believe I never took advantage of my own knowledge and consider it a real shame that I didn't profit from it myself though

 

[Smart_trade]

@afin,

Good observation. You may find similar correlation in Tatan shares and pre festival period like Dasshera and Diwali,Cement shares in pre-monsoon period....

Smart_trade

 

[vraj1]

i also want to trade crude oil. i started paper trading crude oil using gann square9 calculator. Giving good results but want to backtest more and paper trade more. have you tried this strategy. anyone has any valuable suggestions on this strategy.

 

[afin]

@afin,

Good observation. You may find similar correlation in Tatan shares and pre festival period like Dasshera and Diwali,Cement shares in pre-monsoon period....

Smart_trade

Thanks sir. I will run an analysis on that one too

 

[afin]

i also want to trade crude oil. i started paper trading crude oil using gann square9 calculator. Giving good results but want to backtest more and paper trade more. have you tried this strategy. anyone has any valuable suggestions on this strategy.

crude is a very fundamentals driven commodity. It is influenced a lot by geopolitics and also factors in the way dollar and gold prices move. I would look at other technical indicators and not some esoteric one such as crude oil to make profits.