Advance Price Action Trading with Demand Supply & More

[AlphaT]

Dear alphaT and all others, Happy new year!!

Sharing my analysis of nifty on 3rd Jan when it formed an ERC zone in the 15 min time frame. Entry was at 12250 and exit was at 12233 since it bounced from the upper DZ at 12190, engulfed two SZ's and hit the trailing SL. Alternatively, the position could have been carried over to the next day since it bounced from the upper of the two stacked DZ's below. Please provide your feedback...

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The 1hr HTF during the same period shows two DZ's being engulfed...

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Happy New Year @noobT !
You entered at a good ERC zone indeed. I think the gap DZ was the logical first target, but you used a trailing SL method which is also a good system nonetheless. This was a good trade with correct application of concepts! Thanks for sharing!

 

[AlphaT]

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Bro, is the DZ/SZ marking correct? whats the probability of the zones holding since its only one candle. is it better just to avoid such trades?

If I am to only consider marking the three zones properly, let's say with style 2 marking, I would mark these as :-

Don't leave out other basing candles in the zone (basing area).

Zones having only one basing candle cannot be considered to be inferior just for that reason alone. There are good zones that may not even have any basing candles in a given time frame. I haven't made a video on that yet, so I guess that would be the topic of my next video. For example, in this chart itself there is DZ with no basing candles in the daily TF. But actually there basing candles but not in this TF (Hint: look at LTF hourly).

 

[sabhlok_r]

Ok, but I think an easier method for looking at conf would be engulfing of two LTF SZs, that would entail the trend changing on the LTF at least. Would you agree?

Sure, I do.

 

[AlphaT]

May I add something for this? Yesterday, in a single shot Banknifty reversed back and almost reached the origin of compression zone. (even in Nifty)... So its reasonably valid to expect a bounce at this level, atleast in LTF, provided we get confirmations of reversals .... Am I correct?

Yes, it's a good of interpreting the PA that's unfolding.

 

[AlphaT]

In my opinion,' single candle " is not an issue.... The fall is from a supply zone, and the fall in a single candle certifies the quality of movement... the probability of DZ being broken is high..

Yes, single candle should not be an issue, however, there are more to zones in-terms of its quality than it's structural factors alone. These would also include, but not limited to-
1. HTF picture
2. Zone's location (strategic/key levels)
3. Did the zone form when price reacted from an imp existing zone?
4. Is the zone depicting dominance by buyer/seller (insti(s)) ?
5. Is the zone by virtue of a trick being played by insti(s) for grabbing more liquidity(opposing orders from retail traders)?

Some of these are adv factors having some complexity, hopefully, I would be able to cover these in due course of time!

 

[dhruv24]

Axis Bank Diamond trade-

Daily-

Hourly-

Followup-

 

[warrior_trader]

Axis Bank Diamond trade-

Daily-

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Hourly-

View attachment 39694

Followup-

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hey,
can you please tell how you decide the take profit target so surely ?
Did you just use the daily DZ .. ?

 

[dhruv24]

hey,
can you please tell how you decide the take profit target so surely ?
Did you just use the daily DZ .. ?

The HTF gives you a general idea about where the prices might turn. But the origin of move on LTF is a much better and sure target, as most of the stop losses are present at that point.

 

[AlphaT]

Axis Bank Diamond trade-

Daily-

View attachment 39693

Hourly-

View attachment 39694

Followup-

View attachment 39695

Awesome @dhruv24 ! Notice how it QM-ed on the hourly before the steep fall. Good one!

 

[dhruv24]

Dow is in similar diamond formation as axis at the top. If the level is held, at least a thousand point drop would follow.
As it is at an all time high and there's no supply to the left to judge, it is a bit risky, but diamonds often shine. Will post the chart soon.