30m 20 sma

[DSM]

Thanks HappySingh for the feedback.

By having a open discussion, we are getting insights and ideas from traders that we may not otherwise consider. I have analysed hundreds of charts closely looking for insight into different indicator based system. The obvious conclusion is that money can be made in a trend, and good money management and going big (with strict discipline) when the trend changes is the way to make good amount of money.

One thing that I learnt from studying about MA's is that we will have to use some filters, especially when the 20MA's turn flat (this is especially so after a big trend) It is better to be out of the market to avoid choppy situations and whipsaws. Entries as per MA's should be considered when the MA's slope upwards or down after being flat after consolidation. We will have to define some rules for this as we go along.

It is good to have this discussion in this thread and LIVE is so that we don't do the perfect 'postmortem analysis' which is 100% right always. So tracking the system live will help us to understand the nuances of the system and learning better.

Will post XL sheet for 20SMA so that we can compare this with Supertrend and track the same till 31st Dec. And for better comparison, will have to consider taking yesterday's entry signal. Will update the tracker later.

Thanks for your views.

BTW, just to clarify, I am no guru. For me and for us all THE GURU IS THE MARKET, which we all must respect follow.

Hi

A trader starting with a simple system, trying to optimize the performance, usually starts making it more and more complicated

In the above system without introducing a new indicator we can make it quite complex so much so that the number of choices becomes so high,
resulting in trader freezing up at execution . . .

For e.g. let us consider the degrees of variability . . .

1. Play with the MA Length
2. Instead of just the close above/below let the complete bar clear the MA
3. Instead of MA of close lets introduce the MA of H/L for Long/Short
4. Play with various combinations of Stop Loss / Profit Stop Values

Now do all the above with different types of MAs

Of course, if someone can write an AFL for all of it then testing everything becomes so much easy . . . soooooo easy to the extend of the original idea becoming useless.

We all talk about KISS but when it comes to trading . . . . some how our mind tricks our-self into thinking that KISS = more complex the better :thumb:

When I write code for others, many times I wonder if I am really helping them out or just it ends in making them more confused . . .

Anyway, I have faith in DSM that he can steer around his followers on this thread in-spite of the multiple options available and focus on trading the markets . . .

Here's the code with 4 different trading logic's and variable length, and Stops with optimizer . . .

Len = Optimize("LENGTH",Param("LENGTH",5,2,95,1),4,14,1);
e = MA(C,Len); eH = MA(H,Len); eL = MA(L,Len);
C15 = IIf(e > Ref(e,-1),colorBlueGrey,colorRed);
Plot(e,"MA-C",C15,styleThick); Plot(eH,"MA-H", C15, styleDashed); Plot(eL,"MA-L",C15,styleDashed);
Cond = 1; Cond = Optimize("Condition",Param("Condition",1,1,4,1),1,4,1); // Choose Trading Logic
     if (Cond==1) {Buy = e > Ref(e,-1) AND C > e;	Sell = e < Ref(e,-1) AND C < e;}
else if (Cond==2) {Buy = e > Ref(e,-1) AND L > e;	Sell = e < Ref(e,-1) AND H < e;}
else if (Cond==3) {Buy = e > Ref(e,-1) AND C > eH;	Sell =	e < Ref(e,-1) AND C < eL;}
else if (Cond==4) {Buy = e > Ref(e,-1) AND L > eH;	Sell =	e < Ref(e,-1) AND H < eL;}
Buy=ExRem(Buy,Sell); Sell=ExRem(Sell,Buy); Short=Sell; Cover=Buy;
PlotShapes(Buy+2*Sell,colorWhite,0,IIf(Buy,L,H)); SetPositionSize(100,4);
//ApplyStop(stopTypeLoss,  stopModePoint,Optimize("StopLoss",Param("StopLoss",20,10,100,10),10,60,10));
//ApplyStop(stopTypeProfit,stopModePoint,Optimize("Profit",  Param("Profit",200,40,500,10),50,500,50));

Last few months on 30 Mins, MA 5-10 seem to perform better,
trading logic 2 & 3 do better with smaller values of Length and
Logic 1 does better with higher values of Length

Cheers

Happy

 

[rajgreenpeace]

@ DSM..........when my system was giving me good result I was absent......1.2 yrs in TJ......"kill the noise".............it's interesting to see how you handle so many thread......no offensive......please

 

[umeshmandal]

RGP, "kill the noise" !!! Kindly elaborate and oblige ! Are you referring to "noise" in charts with SMA or is it something else.
If it indeed is about SMA in chart,please enlighten a bit more on the subject.

 

[DSM]

Though this is post facto entry, to compare the performance of 30M20SMA with 30M2ST (AAS) we are considering the entry basis signal given by the system yesterday. Ignoring a few points difference, the entry of Nifty and BankNifty is 6,145 and 10,960

Charts for Nifty is already posted, chart for BankNifty attached.

 

[rajgreenpeace]

RGP, "kill the noise"[/U] !!! Kindly elaborate and oblige ! Are you referring to "noise" in charts with SMA or is it something else.
If it indeed is about SAM in chart,please enlighten a bit more on the subject.

It's means avoid forum,Tv,News....(to avoid negative mind and contradiction).....trade silently with good method......:thumb:

 

[DSM]

RajBro, No offence taken. All the post/response is considered as feedback and in positive light, so no issues. Right now, as these system are being considered there is feedback, which is appreciated and welcome. Once the system is well defined and we take signals as a routine, the thread will be only tracking the performance of the system. It will help me and those tracking the thread as well as every entry and exit decision is taken in an open and transparent manner and as per rules.

While I have felt that following these two system is objective and profitable, I did not have the evidence from live decision making and hence have always considered 'other factors' and taken early exits etc. So this thread for me will provide the necessary realtime feel and also provide the validity of the system, which I will then trade mechanically if it is statistically proved, and remove the subjective bias in my trading. Let's see what happens as on 31st Dec.

@ DSM..........when my system was giving me good result I was absent......1.2 yrs in TJ......"kill the noise".............it's interesting to see how you handle so many thread......no offensive......please

 

[DSM]

Nifty and Bank Nifty are both hold. BankNifty has closed below the price, but the 20SMA is still in green. Our short will trigger only after SMA turns red AND price closes below. Will update XL tracker later.

 

[DSM]

EOD Charts for 30M20SMA Nifty and BankNifty

 

[DSM]

Posting two charts of BankNifty. This is a line chart, free of any Candlestick, so that our mind can focus on only the closing price. All of us are used to seeing candlestick charts with OHLC, which our mind gives meaning. But what should we do to get a different and clear perspective? I use line chart, with 20SMA. Two charts are here with 10M and 30M. If we look at 10M chart we will be more likely to see price breaking out..... and take more trades... However, 30M chart removes the bias as it is more smooth.

The second question even if we trade on smaller time frame. We need to look at the charts from a higher timeframe. Looking if 30SMA is green or red will tell us if we should be long or short in smaller time frame. Another vital clue we can get is if we can check if 30SMA is sloping or flat. This simple analysis can tell us which side of the trade we should be on.

In my view Simple Chart = Clear thinking.

One more thing, is that more we become familiar with these chart, the more insight will we have of which way to trade. Charts attached, the conclusion is yours to make.

 

[DSM]

BankNifty 30M 20SMA : Short signaled @ 11,193.

We will consider our exit at this price. Short entry will be considered at 11,183 (10 points slippage)

SL for this trade is Max @ 11,270 (subject to change as per MA)

Will update XL tracker later.