I think we are going in wrong direction. The high made in 90 minutes is more likely to hold.the high made in 3 hours more likely than 90. Similarly if one takes a short trade with yesterday's high as sl or 1 month high as sl. sl will hold but that may not mean profitability. If one enters the trade and SL is not hit as time passes the probability it will hit goes reducing . Trade with higher SL has more probability to hold but it doesn't mean trade will be profitable

This started out as interesting exercise of about half an hour . . .

The 90 minutes analysis was not meant to bring any significant edge to ORB trading,

just an attempt to verify an interesting statistics put out by Al Brooks

The conclusions at my end are

1. What he has stated about first 18, 5 minutes bars, is more or less True for Stocks in Indian Markets

2. Indices behave little different (as in the condition is true for 70/80 not 90%)

3) For the Individual Highs/Lows, it is in place for 60-65% of days in first 90 Minutes

The Inference by putting 1 & 3 together is that for 40-45% of the days,

the range for the entire day is already established in first 90 Minutes

which means BO/or trend following methods are not trade-able on these days

Fading the range will be the way to go

As usual all these statistics,

even though quite interesting,

may not help us directly in taking a trade

Identifying the type of day earlier on is quite important,

as our friend Rajesh has said, the Context is most important

.