20% ROI per month on captial above 1 Cr possible?

checkmate7

Well-Known Member
Is not the above data biased towards Industrials and large cap nifty companies?
Yes it is you can use your own set of stocks and check :)
 

lemondew

Well-Known Member
I think we are going in wrong direction. The high made in 90 minutes is more likely to hold.the high made in 3 hours more likely than 90. Similarly if one takes a short trade with yesterday's high as sl or 1 month high as sl.sl will hold but that may not mean profitability. If one enters the trade and SL is not hit as time passes the probability it will hit goes reducing . Trade with higher SL has more probability to hold but it doesn't mean trade will be profitable
 
Last edited:
I think we are going in wrong direction. The high made in 90 minutes is more likely to hold.the high made in 3 hours more likely than 90. Similarly if one takes a short trade with yesterday's high as sl or 1 month high as sl. sl will hold but that may not mean profitability. If one enters the trade and SL is not hit as time passes the probability it will hit goes reducing . Trade with higher SL has more probability to hold but it doesn't mean trade will be profitable
This started out as interesting exercise of about half an hour . . .

The 90 minutes analysis was not meant to bring any significant edge to ORB trading,
just an attempt to verify an interesting statistics put out by Al Brooks

The conclusions at my end are

1. What he has stated about first 18, 5 minutes bars, is more or less True for Stocks in Indian Markets
2. Indices behave little different (as in the condition is true for 70/80 not 90%)
3) For the Individual Highs/Lows, it is in place for 60-65% of days in first 90 Minutes

The Inference by putting 1 & 3 together is that for 40-45% of the days,
the range for the entire day is already established in first 90 Minutes
which means BO/or trend following methods are not trade-able on these days
Fading the range will be the way to go

As usual all these statistics,
even though quite interesting,
may not help us directly in taking a trade

Identifying the type of day earlier on is quite important,
as our friend Rajesh has said, the Context is most important


.
 

marimuthu13

Well-Known Member
This started out as interesting exercise of about half an hour . . .

The 90 minutes analysis was not meant to bring any significant edge to ORB trading,
just an attempt to verify an interesting statistics put out by Al Brooks

The conclusions at my end are

1. What he has stated about first 18, 5 minutes bars, is more or less True for Stocks in Indian Markets
2. Indices behave little different (as in the condition is true for 70/80 not 90%)
3) For the Individual Highs/Lows, it is in place for 60-65% of days in first 90 Minutes

The Inference by putting 1 & 3 together is that for 40-45% of the days,
the range for the entire day is already established in first 90 Minutes
which means BO/or trend following methods are not trade-able on these days
Fading the range will be the way to go

As usual all these statistics,
even though quite interesting,
may not help us directly in taking a trade

Identifying the type of day earlier on is quite important,
as our friend Rajesh has said, the Context is most important


.
this 90% H/L at 90 minutes has edge if we select early BO properly, its like BOF of 30-45 -60 minutes range failure, most BOF will have good move in opposite of BO...
 
this 90% H/L at 90 minutes has edge if we select early BO properly, its like BOF of 30-45 -60 minutes range failure, most BOF will have good move in opposite of BO...
Maybe another good point of study will be what % of the day range is remaining to be captured after first 90 minutes
As around 40% plus days there is nothing left on the table for BO

Now lets say the range expansion is only 10 - 20% for 1/2 of remaining days
then trading 90 Mins BO will be a loss making system . . .


It seems trading BO as early as possible and fading the range later in the day will have a slight edge.

.
 

marimuthu13

Well-Known Member
Maybe another good point of study will be what % of the day range is remaining to be captured after first 90 minutes
As around 40% plus days there is nothing left on the table for BO

Now lets say the range expansion is only 10 - 20% for 1/2 of remaining days
then trading 90 Mins BO will be a loss making system . . .


It seems trading BO as early as possible and fading the range later in the day will have a slight edge.

.
Exactly .... 15 min range - only BO , 30 min range - either BO/BOF, 45 min range - Only BOF.
 

rajesh.singh

Well-Known Member
How I take This small exercise done by Happy, Checkmates & others as a starting point or base line conviction that Trading Open works, and even someone struggle at initial stage, still they know even they read or trade late…still trading open will offer something.
This will work as anchor point in respective of trading style and time frame one chooses to trade. To start with I would personally prefer what Marimuthu is doing, just choose one style as in this case ORB, & just execute it…& keep collecting the data, and not look for tweaks, modification or optimization unless, substantial data warrants for changes if any , else one will lose the objectivity.
So just choose the poison that suits & gradually get evolved.
 

Zerodha – Open Paperless Account

Open online account with Zerodha. Free delivery trading and Max Rs 20 for Intraday, F&O, Currency and Commodity Trading. Intraday High leverage with MIS, CO and BO.

Name:Phone:
Email:City:
State:
Are you a day trader?