1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures - Bac

[rh6996]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

The Strategy.

It is not a Real positional method because I don't want to take the positions to the next day. It is also not Intraday because I am not going to sit the whole day for Trading. The above statement with the assumption that the backtested results of last two years data will work for future also

So coming to steps.
1. End of day, Take the OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close)
2. Calculate the 25 DAY EMA on the HIGH - We will Go LONG only above this Price
3. Calculate the 25 DAY EMA on the LOW - We will Go SHORT only below this Price
4. Calculate the 15 DAY EMA on the OHLC - We will use this to calculate the BUY/SELL signal
5. Calculate the 25 DAY EMA on the OHLC - We will use this to calculate the BUY/SELL signal
6. To Confirm the UP trend, there should be HIGHER HIGHs and HIGHER LOWs. For DOWNTREND it should be LOWER HIGHs and LOWER LOWs.
7. Using the above rule, we will get a BUY or SELL signal for 15DAY EMA and 25 DAY EMA. If we can use TOD for TODAY and PRE for PREVIOUS Day. Then we will get a BUY Signal if TOD_HIGH >= PRE_HIGH and TOD_OPEN >= PRE_OPEN and TOD_LOW >= PRE_LOW and TOD_CLOSE >= PRE_CLOSE
8. For a SELL Signal we have to check the LOWER LOWs and LOWER HIGHs.
9. We will get one signal for 15DAY EMA and another for 25DAY EMA.
10. If both are BUY then for tomorrow we will go LONG or if both are SELL then for tomorrow we will go LONG.
11. If both of them do not give any BUY/SELL signal then no trade for tomorrow.
12. If the signals are different then we will go with the 25DAY EMA Signal because we want to go with the Trend (so we use higher EMA value)
13. IF it is a LONG, then we will go LONG above the Price (Calculated in Step 2)
14. IF it is a SHORT, then we will SHORT below the Price (Calculated in Step 3.)
15. We will have to calculate the Stoploss Price so that the Win Ratio confirms with the Trend. For Example if NIFTY is trending only 25% of the time and 75% of the time it is Rangebound, then we will have to find a stoploss so that we will win the Trades only 25% of time. The value from my tool comes to around 7-10.
16. Once you open the trade around 9:15 AM to 9:30 AM after checking the opening price, then put a Stoploss trade and close the Trading Terminal.
17. At around 3:15 PM to 3:25 pm, you need to close the trade if Stoploss was not hit.
18. After market hours download the OHLC for today and continue the steps for tomorrow.

All the above steps and calculation have been done in the Excel tool. The only thing which needs to be done is daily add a row and update the OHLC manually and check the column W for LONG Signals and column AB for SHORT signals in the tool.

I have not actually used this system. So please use it if you feel confident and that you are convinced. I am planning to paper trade for some time before actually using it. Please share the tool and please don't sell this tool for money... It is supposed to distributed freely...

What is 15 day EMA on OHLC? You mean EMA of 'mean'/'average'' value of OHLC?

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

dear raj
we u know that in practical it is not possible to gain such huge amounts , than why now a days in tj a hype is created and telling that there system is too good , array bhai if u have too much good system than why u r creating hype go home and trade and be a millaonary why so much hype.
u share here ur stratgery that's good and also stratgery seems good but in other threads they r seeing it on teamviewer and they also don't confident when they stop seeing it and also no members r getting there afl or system free they r indirectly advt. there system so that newbies get attracted toward them and subscribed to them .


p.s. : i didnot want to be in any lafda but didnot resist myself to comment .

I did not understand the second part of your post. For the first part, if Ihad created an impression of hype then you are completely mistaken and the purpose of this thread itself is defeated. You are seeing only one side of the coin then... What I am saying is mainly two things....

Point 1 ) Each stock/index needs different parameters mainly the stoploss. But mostly we (including myself) try to win 50% of trades by using Risk:reward ratio of 1:2 etc... which does not work for NIFTY because NIFTY is trending only 20-25% of the time. SO USE LESS STOPLOSS and LOOSE LESS in LOOSING TRADES.
Point 2) If someone is READY TO LOOSE 80% of the trade and win only 20% of the trade then this strategy will work.

But How many of us will Start Trading with the assumption that we are going to loose 80% of our trades?

At the end of the day the message for NIFTY TRADERS is Develop a mindset to loose 80% of the trades with a small stoploss so that you can ultimately win in the 20% of the trades...

Lastly I have shared this tool to get critical inputs on the strategy so that the strategy can be bettered...

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

What is 15 day EMA on OHLC? You mean EMA of 'mean'/'average'' value of OHLC?

Please refer to Step 7

7. Using the above rule, we will get a BUY or SELL signal for 15DAY EMA and 25 DAY EMA. If we can use TOD for TODAY and PRE for PREVIOUS Day. Then we will get a BUY Signal if TOD_HIGH >= PRE_HIGH and TOD_OPEN >= PRE_OPEN and TOD_LOW >= PRE_LOW and TOD_CLOSE >= PRE_CLOSE

So to get a BUY/SELL Signal, Calculate the 15 DAY EMA on Open, High, Low and Close. so you will have 4 values from Today and 4 previous values. Now apply the step 7 and get the signal.

 

[mangup]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Please refer to Step 7

7. Using the above rule, we will get a BUY or SELL signal for 15DAY EMA and 25 DAY EMA. If we can use TOD for TODAY and PRE for PREVIOUS Day. Then we will get a BUY Signal if TOD_HIGH >= PRE_HIGH and TOD_OPEN >= PRE_OPEN and TOD_LOW >= PRE_LOW and TOD_CLOSE >= PRE_CLOSE

So to get a BUY/SELL Signal, Calculate the 15 DAY EMA on Open, High, Low and Close. so you will have 4 values from Today and 4 previous values. Now apply the step 7 and get the signal.

Dear Raj, Can u pl explain with some examples & charts ?

 

[malunana]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

I also need clarification. Do you mean Tod_High is 25(or)15EMA of High and so on for low, close etc?. Pls clarify. Tks

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Explanation for the Intraday-Positional Strategy


I have taken a sample from 02-Sep to 07-Sep to Explain the Long

The "Open", "High", "Low", "Close" rows are self explanatory
Buy Above 25 EMA - This is the 25 DAY EMA calculated from the "HIGH" value which we will use as the price to Go LONG
Sell Below 25 EMA - This is the 25 DAY EMA calculated from the "LOW" value which we will use as the price to Go SHORT
Then we calculate the following Values
15 DAY High AVG - 15 DAY EMA on High
15 DAY Low AVG - 15 DAY EMA on Low
15 DAY Open AVG - 15 DAY EMA on Open
15 DAY Close AVG - 15 DAY EMA on Close
25 DAY High AVG - 25 DAY EMA on High
25 DAY Low AVG - 25 DAY EMA on Low
25 DAY Open AVG - 25 DAY EMA on open
25 DAY Close AVG - 25 DAY EMA on Close
15 EMA Signal - If HIGHER HIGHS and HIGHER LOWS on 15 DAY EMA Values then BUY, If LOWER HIGHS and LOWER LOWS on 15 DAY EMA Values then SELL signal. ELSE NO Signal (VOID)
25 EMA Signal - Same with 25 DAY EMA Values
15 EMA & 25 EMA Signals Combined - IF 15 DAY EMA = BUY and 25 DAY = BUY then BUY....
Final Signal = Compare Previous Daysignal and then take a final signal...
For Example if Previous Day = BUY and today = BUY then BUY
For Example if Previous Day = BUY and today = SELL then SELL
For Example if Previous Day = BUY and today = VOID then CLOSE BUY
There are many combinations
Decision based on Signal - We will get a combined signal like "STAY LONG" or "CLOSE LONG and SELL SHORT". So we might have one signal for LONG and another signal for SHORT
LONG Signal - The Signal for LONG Positions

So at the End of day 02-Sep, we have a LONG Signal called "BUY LONG" and Buy above 5481
On 03-Sep the opening price was 5486 and so we go long ar 5486
On 03-Sep after market opening market made low of 5474 and so our stoploss of 10 points hit. So loss of 10 points on 03-Sep

So at the End of day 03-Sep, we have a LONG Signal called "STAY LONG" above 5483
On 06-Sep the opening price was 5480 and so we go long above 5483 only andso we bough at 5484
On 06-Sep after market opening market made a low of 5480 and so our Stoploss would not have hit.
Market closed around 5577 and so we make a profit of 93 points.

07-Sep is similar to 06-Sep...

Let me know if you have understood, If you know excel a bit, you can see all the formulas used in the calculation....

At the end 03-Sep for 15-DAY EMA Signal, you can obserer that all the Open, High, Low and Close are higher than the previous days values
5490 > 5487 (High), 5433 > 5427(Low), 5459 > 5455(Open), 5461 > 5458(Close). Since it is making HIGHER HIGHs we get a BUY signal

Same for 25 DAY EMA
5483 > 5480(High), 5427 > 5423 (Low), 5453 > 5451(Open) , 5455 > 5453 (Close) . Since 25 DAY EMA making Higher HIGHs we get a BUY signal in 25 DAY EMA also...

 

[PartTime_Trader]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Hello Raj

I have 2 queries,

1. For trading on a specific day are we using MA values from same day?

For e.g. from the above data say 6-sept-10, looks like we are using MA-15 & MA-25 values of same day, but these final values are available only after the close for the day, so effectively are we using look-ahead data ?

2. After the entry the price can retrace and hit the stop before moving in favor of our trade, how do we test for this when using only the EoD OHLC data? This will be clear only if we verifying from intraday data.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Hello Raj

I have 2 queries,

1. For trading on a specific day are we using MA values from same day?

For e.g. from the above data say 6-sept-10, looks like we are using MA-15 & MA-25 values of same day, but these final values are available only after the close for the day, so effectively are we using look-ahead data ?

2. After the entry the price can retrace and hit the stop before moving in favor of our trade, how do we test for this when using only the EoD OHLC data? This will be clear only if we verifying from intraday data.

At the end of day you get OHLC and you get a BUY/SELL signal and so you would only trade the next day morning...

 

[Ajit57]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

First of all, thanks Raj for your posts ... I really liked your diary and I have been following it ... Now since you have started this post, does that mean that you will not be updating your diary with the trades, charts, etc. .. Please do not stop writing your diary ...

Thanks

 

[rajesha]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Hi Raj,

I was creating a similar excel based on the instructions that you have provided.
On comparing my calculations with that of yours i was finding some differences.
The differences are marked in the image below.
Can you please help in identifying what went wrong in my calculations?