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    Aurobindo’s positive aura

    6 years ago, Aurobindo acquired Natrol for $132M. https://m.economictimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/pharmaceuticals/aurobindo-pharma-completes-132-5-million-natrol-acquisition/articleshow/45386182.cms And yesterday, they sold it for $550M. this transaction was on the books of Aurobindo...
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    Vedanta: “first interim” is the real message!

    Yesterday’s announcement of ₹9.5 dividend will obviously cheer shareholders of Vedanta. But the real message isn’t in the actual amount of dividend. The wording - “First interim” is the real message. And it indicates that there will be at least TWO more dividend payments this year! If it was...
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    The Zinc Thing!

    Back in the 90’s Ramesh Chauhan was facing a cash fueled onslaught from Coke and Pepsi, and sold out to Coke. And Coke retained ThumsUp and Limca - but shut down Gold Spot! Gold Spot had a fan following, and had carved a niche for itself, as the “Zing Thing” and sadly for us, Coke killed it...
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    Amazon, Reliance and Future (of) Retailing

    It now appears that there may be a cloud over Kishore Biyani’s distress sale of Future Retail to Reliance Retail. Amazon has an extremely strong case on 2 fronts - they have a right of first refusal which Biyani didn’t honor, plus they have an explicit black-listing of any transaction with...
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    Risk of war with China at highest

    As we approach harsh winter in Ladakh, the risk of current situation escalating into a war is at its highest. And current scenario has similarities with what happened in 1962. Back then, Nehru followed a Forward Policy - of creating observation posts to monitor Chinese activity on their side of...
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    ITC deserves to be King Size!

    The recent farm bills have potential to change the complete landscape of agriculture in India. And ITC, is easily the most trusted corporate, pretty much throughout the country, as far as farmers are concerned. They have invested consistently in the Agri-economy and have supported the farming...
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    L&T is dead, long live L&T

    In last month, L&T has fallen 13% as fears of a government Capex crunch hit the stock. However, market may be missing some key points. - L&T has an Orderbook that isolates them from current crunch for 2 years. Even if they don’t get a single new order, they have enough work to do for 2 years. -...
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    COVID vaccine plays

    In the 2 weeks, Astra Zeneca shot up from 3200 to 4500, as news of its COVID vaccine progress kept market excited. In last couple of days, stock corrected sharply. I think it will raise doubts about whether there was insider info - of today’s announcement that the vaccine has issues, and will be...
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    Aurobindo’s conundrum

    The stock action in Aurobindo in last 3 days is quite interesting! The new margin regulations that are aimed at discouraging Cash holdings for trading purposes, effective today onwards, are hurting Aurobindo!! Anyone trading with Delivery holdings is in trouble, because the cash from selling...
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    How to manage News Flow - like a Hero!

    Last week, Hero came out with disappointing numbers. Even lower than the lowest estimates. And the stock predictably corrected. But yesterday, pretty much every news site out there had articles painting the Hero story as a major positive. Here’s a sample: all from Yesterday Hero Motocorp...
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    The bear case for Reliance

    While I have been bullish on Reliance for a very long time, considering that Reliance is making continuous daily highs, it is worth looking at the things that could pull down the stock. And when you start looking at the other side, there’s a few things to be concerned about. The exposure from...
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    L&T’s defense foray

    We generally associate L&T with a lot of things - but of late the company has been making the news in one area - defense equipment. There seems to be tremendous uncertainty in order flow at the moment - with the liquidity constraints and fiscal constraints of the government hurting order flow...
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    Another demerger in Reliance?

    The recent news flow in Reliance seems to point to another demerger coming up shortly. There is an attempt to consolidate the debt, in the parent company, and close that debt to large extent by selling stake in oil and gas entity to Saudi Aramco. We are witnessing similar sort of restructuring...
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    Reliance 4Q 2020 earnings

    In December last year, Jio hiked prices - this should go directly to bottom line. Jan 2020 onwards, IMO2020 kicks in - Reliance is big beneficiary of this. Falling oil price typically results in greater refining margins, but also inventory losses. However, Reliance has been scalping Crude that...
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    BHEL could be tasty

    BHEL’s numbers for Q3 weren’t exactly setting the market on fire. But it’s possible the market is over-reacting to the numbers. The stock is down almost 25% in last 15 days - and even if we extrapolate the earnings from yesterday’s announcement, it is still available at a relatively cheap 20x...
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    ONGC Dividend Trade

    With Saturday’s announcement of ending of Dividend Distribution Tax, there is a very interesting scenario - companies like ONGC, which have a high dividend yield, and which normally pay their dividends in end-February would be incentivized to delay their payment by a month - to April. This delay...
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    Reliance Sum of Parts

    The recent news flow on the Grey market pricing of Reliance Retail provides interesting ways to value Reliance. While the market is focusing on the fact that most people won’t take this offer, there are other valuable things to consider. If Reliance is willing to pay 1 share of RIL for 4 shares...
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    Yes Bank - RBI’s folly

    RBI kicked out Rana Kapoor from Yes Bank, and created some unintended consequences. The new management has much more incentive to safeguard its own interest, than to safeguard the interest of the bank. Ravneet Gill will be a fool if he takes up some proposal that will benefit Yes Bank, but...
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    63 moons could be ready for lift off

    Today is the day when PC and his bureaucrat cronies have to respond to the ₹10,000 crore lawsuit against them by 63 moons. And judge has clearly warned them - no further delays. It seems like this might be a positive for 63 moons for following reasons. - recent court cases have been going in...
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    L&T Conundrum

    Uddhav Thackeray’s move to review all projects underway in Maharashtra has ensured that L&T is available at an attractive price. But realistically, there is little the government can do about already awarded and in progress contracts. Also, Nirmala Sitharaman’s announcement over the weekend...