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    The Zinc Thing!

    Back in the 90’s Ramesh Chauhan was facing a cash fueled onslaught from Coke and Pepsi, and sold out to Coke. And Coke retained ThumsUp and Limca - but shut down Gold Spot! Gold Spot had a fan following, and had carved a niche for itself, as the “Zing Thing” and sadly for us, Coke killed it...
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    Amazon, Reliance and Future (of) Retailing

    It now appears that there may be a cloud over Kishore Biyani’s distress sale of Future Retail to Reliance Retail. Amazon has an extremely strong case on 2 fronts - they have a right of first refusal which Biyani didn’t honor, plus they have an explicit black-listing of any transaction with...
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    L&T is dead, long live L&T

    The Kamath recommendations have been pushed out to 2nd November - which is disappointing for holders of L&T - but I don’t think there is any indication of either RBI or Government backtracking from those recommendations. Which means the positive story for L&T is still in place. We have to...
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    Risk of war with China at highest

    As we approach harsh winter in Ladakh, the risk of current situation escalating into a war is at its highest. And current scenario has similarities with what happened in 1962. Back then, Nehru followed a Forward Policy - of creating observation posts to monitor Chinese activity on their side of...
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    ITC deserves to be King Size!

    Yesterday’s decision by the GST council - that additional taxes will continue beyond 2022 for cigarettes and luxury cars is seen as a negative for ITC. However, when entire market was expecting increase in additional taxes, just continuing with these taxes is actually a positive! But more...
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    L&T is dead, long live L&T

    Govt affidavit doesn’t contain details of relief for 26 sectors as suggested by Kamath committee. SC asks government to submit concrete proposal by Oct 13th in this regard. Market sees this as negative for L&T. But I don’t think it is negative. As they say, “Court mein dher hai, andher nahin”...
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    ITC deserves to be King Size!

    The recent farm bills have potential to change the complete landscape of agriculture in India. And ITC, is easily the most trusted corporate, pretty much throughout the country, as far as farmers are concerned. They have invested consistently in the Agri-economy and have supported the farming...
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    L&T is dead, long live L&T

    There isn’t any such thing as long term in markets today. That philosophy is over and just waiting to be buried. Disruption is happening at such a rapid pace in so many industries, that we can’t predict how business will be even 1 year down the road. My calls are based on 3 factors. -...
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    L&T is dead, long live L&T

    I hope now you don’t have complaint about my L&T call. Stock moved in downtrend from 1020 to 850, I made the buy call at 857, now it is at 895. But even more crucially, Oct 1st is the government deadline to declare at the Supreme Court on interest rate policy for various sectors. And if any...
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    L&T is dead, long live L&T

    To a very large extent, Mukesh Ambani is responsible for Anil Ambani’s fate in 2 ways. ADAG had a deal with RIL, to supply gas at cheaper rate from KG-D6 to Reliance Natural Resources. But Mukesh used his connections in government to scuttle his obligations to Anil, and did not give the gas to...
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    L&T is dead, long live L&T

    Really? You think I am trying to pump up large cap names like L&T and Reliance? Almost every post of mine is made when I invest into the stock, it is a sort of rationale for my own investment. I put it out there, in the hope that there will be others who will comment on my post, and I can...
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    L&T is dead, long live L&T

    Mukesh Ambani is happy selling stake in Jio for $65B. And Reliance owns 67% of Jio now, worth $44B. He is happy selling stake in Retail for $57B. He was trying to sell 20% in Oil/Chemical business at $75B before oil prices crashed in 2020. Global oil companies have crashed over 50% since...
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    L&T is dead, long live L&T

    Even current post, I have made around 857, when stock has fallen from its recent high of 1020. I believe we are close to the bottom of this fall - but it may not be exact bottom.
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    L&T is dead, long live L&T

    The Conundrum post was made on 05/12/19. From its recent peak of 1473 on 31/10/19, stock fell to 1300 when I made that post. And my post was close enough to bottom of 1279 (within 1.5% of the bottom). And it went up to 1375 in about a month time. From most stand points, that is a reasonable...
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    L&T is dead, long live L&T

    In last month, L&T has fallen 13% as fears of a government Capex crunch hit the stock. However, market may be missing some key points. - L&T has an Orderbook that isolates them from current crunch for 2 years. Even if they don’t get a single new order, they have enough work to do for 2 years. -...
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    COVID vaccine plays

    In the 2 weeks, Astra Zeneca shot up from 3200 to 4500, as news of its COVID vaccine progress kept market excited. In last couple of days, stock corrected sharply. I think it will raise doubts about whether there was insider info - of today’s announcement that the vaccine has issues, and will be...
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    Aurobindo’s conundrum

    The stock action in Aurobindo in last 3 days is quite interesting! The new margin regulations that are aimed at discouraging Cash holdings for trading purposes, effective today onwards, are hurting Aurobindo!! Anyone trading with Delivery holdings is in trouble, because the cash from selling...
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    How to manage News Flow - like a Hero!

    Last week, Hero came out with disappointing numbers. Even lower than the lowest estimates. And the stock predictably corrected. But yesterday, pretty much every news site out there had articles painting the Hero story as a major positive. Here’s a sample: all from Yesterday Hero Motocorp...
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    The bear case for Reliance

    Reliance Results seemingly positive - with large profit. However if you remove One time gains and tax related gains, it’s about ₹2000 crores BELOW expectations! As predicted, Retail took a massive hit - and so did Oil and PetChem businesses. Jio did OK in revenue terms, but profit was below...
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    The bear case for Reliance

    I have no problem with their business. Their execution is fantastic, their mindset is also fantastic - thinking scale. My concern is only that valuations are not justified and the delay in results is also raising red flags. I can’t imagine the stodgy commodity business in Oil and Gas, and...