Recent content by protrade

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    L&T’s defense foray

    We generally associate L&T with a lot of things - but of late the company has been making the news in one area - defense equipment. There seems to be tremendous uncertainty in order flow at the moment - with the liquidity constraints and fiscal constraints of the government hurting order flow...
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    Another demerger in Reliance?

    The recent news flow in Reliance seems to point to another demerger coming up shortly. There is an attempt to consolidate the debt, in the parent company, and close that debt to large extent by selling stake in oil and gas entity to Saudi Aramco. We are witnessing similar sort of restructuring...
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    Reliance 4Q 2020 earnings

    In December last year, Jio hiked prices - this should go directly to bottom line. Jan 2020 onwards, IMO2020 kicks in - Reliance is big beneficiary of this. Falling oil price typically results in greater refining margins, but also inventory losses. However, Reliance has been scalping Crude that...
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    BHEL could be tasty

    BHEL’s numbers for Q3 weren’t exactly setting the market on fire. But it’s possible the market is over-reacting to the numbers. The stock is down almost 25% in last 15 days - and even if we extrapolate the earnings from yesterday’s announcement, it is still available at a relatively cheap 20x...
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    Yes - next Monday, it will be 6 months from last QIP date - which means Yes will be allowed to do another QIP. They now have the approvals needed to do a large QIP. Only question is, whether they will use 6 months High-Low average or 15-days High low average. Using 6 months is good for bank...
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    ONGC Dividend Trade

    Looks like market has finally latched on to this idea. Spread between ONGC shares and futures has now fallen to just ₹0.30 from almost ₹6.00 when I first posted about this!
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    ONGC Dividend Trade

    With Saturday’s announcement of ending of Dividend Distribution Tax, there is a very interesting scenario - companies like ONGC, which have a high dividend yield, and which normally pay their dividends in end-February would be incentivized to delay their payment by a month - to April. This delay...
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    Reliance Sum of Parts

    The Macquarie report and its timing are quite interesting, coming as it did on the day January Futures contracts expired. Also, the report makes very interesting reading - listing out large number of positives, and making an assertion that all these positives are already priced in. Are they...
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    Reliance Sum of Parts

    The recent news flow on the Grey market pricing of Reliance Retail provides interesting ways to value Reliance. While the market is focusing on the fact that most people won’t take this offer, there are other valuable things to consider. If Reliance is willing to pay 1 share of RIL for 4 shares...
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    63 moons could be ready for lift off

    Any idea of further ruling on Chidambaram plea seeking dismissal of case? And to include government into case?
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    Yes Bank - RBI’s folly

    March futures were trading at a 15% discount to cash just 3 days back. Today they have moved to under 8% discount. Looks like this is the start of unwinding of shorts in Yes Bank. But even 8% is ridiculous - it should be trading at a premium, considering no dividends in Yes!
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    Yes Bank - RBI’s folly

    As per SEBI norms, you can’t do a QIP within 6 months of the last one. Since last QIP was 15-Aug-19, Yes has to wait till 15-Feb-20 - or about 3 weeks more. By 15-Feb, 15 day high-low average would be closer to current levels - and by 26-Feb, 6M average of high-low would be near 50. It is up to...
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    Yes Bank - RBI’s folly

    RBI kicked out Rana Kapoor from Yes Bank, and created some unintended consequences. The new management has much more incentive to safeguard its own interest, than to safeguard the interest of the bank. Ravneet Gill will be a fool if he takes up some proposal that will benefit Yes Bank, but...
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    63 moons could be ready for lift off

    Today is the day when PC and his bureaucrat cronies have to respond to the ₹10,000 crore lawsuit against them by 63 moons. And judge has clearly warned them - no further delays. It seems like this might be a positive for 63 moons for following reasons. - recent court cases have been going in...
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    L&T Conundrum

    It all depends on your horizon. For a long term investor, it isn’t about catching a falling knife - at least not in healthy good companies. If you did the same thing with Dewan Housing, yes - that would be catching a falling knife. With L&T, these dips are excellent opportunities to scale into...