Recent content by protrade

  1. P

    Aurobindo’s positive aura

    The story is that you have - a debt free company - at 15x current earnings - with strong US generics pipeline - with upside kicker from rVSV We have already seen them surprise on the upside in Q1 earnings. And the only negative since then is a warning letter from FDA. Even if the warning...
  2. P

    Aurobindo’s positive aura

    This article is an excellent source. Mentions all the relevant points I have covered above. https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/science/dbt-birac-to-support-aurobindo-pharma-in-vaccine-development/article32610480.ece/amp/ This news has been around for over a month...
  3. P

    Aurobindo’s positive aura

    We can speculate on the reasons - but of course, we can’t really know for sure till Company itself announces. But there are a few powerful pointers. Last year, Aurobindo acquired Profectus Bio Sciences in the US. Profectus is one of the few private companies that has invested lot of time and...
  4. P

    Aurobindo’s positive aura

    6 years ago, Aurobindo acquired Natrol for $132M. https://m.economictimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/pharmaceuticals/aurobindo-pharma-completes-132-5-million-natrol-acquisition/articleshow/45386182.cms And yesterday, they sold it for $550M. this transaction was on the books of Aurobindo...
  5. P

    Vedanta: “first interim” is the real message!

    Yesterday’s announcement of ₹9.5 dividend will obviously cheer shareholders of Vedanta. But the real message isn’t in the actual amount of dividend. The wording - “First interim” is the real message. And it indicates that there will be at least TWO more dividend payments this year! If it was...
  6. P

    The Zinc Thing!

    This weekend Vedanta Board is meeting to discuss dividend. They have received ₹11,000 cores as dividend from Hindustan Zinc itself - which is over 25% of market cap of the company. How much of this will they pay out as dividend? My guess is that it will be high - because Anil Agarwal needs to...
  7. P

    The Zinc Thing!

    Back in the 90’s Ramesh Chauhan was facing a cash fueled onslaught from Coke and Pepsi, and sold out to Coke. And Coke retained ThumsUp and Limca - but shut down Gold Spot! Gold Spot had a fan following, and had carved a niche for itself, as the “Zing Thing” and sadly for us, Coke killed it...
  8. P

    Amazon, Reliance and Future (of) Retailing

    It now appears that there may be a cloud over Kishore Biyani’s distress sale of Future Retail to Reliance Retail. Amazon has an extremely strong case on 2 fronts - they have a right of first refusal which Biyani didn’t honor, plus they have an explicit black-listing of any transaction with...
  9. P

    L&T is dead, long live L&T

    The Kamath recommendations have been pushed out to 2nd November - which is disappointing for holders of L&T - but I don’t think there is any indication of either RBI or Government backtracking from those recommendations. Which means the positive story for L&T is still in place. We have to...
  10. P

    Risk of war with China at highest

    As we approach harsh winter in Ladakh, the risk of current situation escalating into a war is at its highest. And current scenario has similarities with what happened in 1962. Back then, Nehru followed a Forward Policy - of creating observation posts to monitor Chinese activity on their side of...
  11. P

    ITC deserves to be King Size!

    Yesterday’s decision by the GST council - that additional taxes will continue beyond 2022 for cigarettes and luxury cars is seen as a negative for ITC. However, when entire market was expecting increase in additional taxes, just continuing with these taxes is actually a positive! But more...
  12. P

    L&T is dead, long live L&T

    Govt affidavit doesn’t contain details of relief for 26 sectors as suggested by Kamath committee. SC asks government to submit concrete proposal by Oct 13th in this regard. Market sees this as negative for L&T. But I don’t think it is negative. As they say, “Court mein dher hai, andher nahin”...
  13. P

    ITC deserves to be King Size!

    The recent farm bills have potential to change the complete landscape of agriculture in India. And ITC, is easily the most trusted corporate, pretty much throughout the country, as far as farmers are concerned. They have invested consistently in the Agri-economy and have supported the farming...
  14. P

    L&T is dead, long live L&T

    There isn’t any such thing as long term in markets today. That philosophy is over and just waiting to be buried. Disruption is happening at such a rapid pace in so many industries, that we can’t predict how business will be even 1 year down the road. My calls are based on 3 factors. -...
  15. P

    L&T is dead, long live L&T

    I hope now you don’t have complaint about my L&T call. Stock moved in downtrend from 1020 to 850, I made the buy call at 857, now it is at 895. But even more crucially, Oct 1st is the government deadline to declare at the Supreme Court on interest rate policy for various sectors. And if any...