(MCX Comedy..Errr. Commodity) - How to Fake your Trade

[Tuna]

Tuna bhai, from last 2 weeks Crude is in Bull trend (in higher TF 4 hr & Daily)... Remember it was bounced back from 3k odd level & we have witnessed 3400 level.
In this period shorts have very short life compare to longs. Yesterday move was expected as it was not held 3408 level & was showing clear sell @ 10 min chart yesterday which was vanished with fake bull move & see what happened later.

Precisely, and I botched this up most of the time in last 2 weeks, Caught couple of pullback but shorts (totally unforced error) cost me money in crude in last 2 weeks. Anyways, this is the issue with discreationary trading - you will make this kind of mistake even when you know the basic by heart. And this is reason (I am literally tired of), I am moving to AFL mech trading (same strategy which I used, but the code will now decide if the conditions are met or not).

This is where weekly stop or monthly stop come handy. I have hit my weekly stop yesterday in crude and stopped. Thats why I did not take the sure shot second short though I was watching the market.

Anyways, now moving to mechnical trading - heard a lot about it and even tried in past (with less winrate than discreationary), but with the size going up, and reducing frequency, I can still make same money with less trading. Let see. Will keep posted.

 

[vijkris]

Precisely, and I botched this up most of the time in last 2 weeks, Caught couple of pullback but shorts (totally unforced error) cost me money in crude in last 2 weeks. Anyways, this is the issue with discreationary trading - you will make this kind of mistake even when you know the basic by heart. And this is reason (I am literally tired of), I am moving to AFL mech trading (same strategy which I used, but the code will now decide if the conditions are met or not).

This is where weekly stop or monthly stop come handy. I have hit my weekly stop yesterday in crude and stopped. Thats why I did not take the sure shot second short though I was watching the market.

Anyways, now moving to mechnical trading - heard a lot about it and even tried in past (with less winrate than discreationary), but with the size going up, and reducing frequency, I can still make same money with less trading. Let see. Will keep posted.

choti mu badi baat...
10 pts per day in crude can make a person crorepati, in maybe 60 trading days, with a modest capital of 1L.
Of course theoretically it is possible, practically very few has the guts to do this.

 

[Tuna]

choti mu badi baat...
10 pts per day in crude can make a person crorepati, in maybe 60 trading days, with a modest capital of 1L.
Of course theoretically it is possible, practically very few has the guts to do this.

The basic is trading is : Each trade comes with 0 gurantee to be a winner. Now it may sound modest 10 points and most of us make a little more than that per month (My monthly average is 200+ almost 8 out of 12 months in crude in last 2 years, this year it is not going great. The issue is compounding and higher leveraging will soon take out the flexbility of using increased leverage.

You are too senior to get noob advice like this, but a single trade with big leverage, even going wrong by 10 points will be a disaster.

We can be Control:
1. Position Size
2.Net Captial deployed
3. The signal we want to follow (need practice)
4. Deciding the Exit point in case of failure
5. Deciding the Exit point in case of success or trailing amount (by % or pips)


But, we can not Control
1. The outcome of the trade

This 5:1 game makes this whole trading so unique that even the most successful trader, on paper will not gurantee even 10 points a day. Cause, the time you do it, there is not limit to the money you can make, considering there is no limit of the money one stinking rich guy can deploy.

1 lakh to 1 Crore in 60 days with 10 points will require High leverage + Compounding. A losing streak of 3-4 trades at the mid point of journey (when you are may be at 20-30lakh caps), will incurr the drawdown, we will back to square one.

Controlled compounding is ok, leverage not good.

 

[Tuna]

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[Tuna]

Let these ideas of above 3 screen shots sink in deep in our soul


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[Apacheindian]

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/27/oil...ll-the-way-to-80-commodities-expert-says.html


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[vijkris]

The basic is trading is : Each trade comes with 0 gurantee to be a winner. Now it may sound modest 10 points and most of us make a little more than that per month (My monthly average is 200+ almost 8 out of 12 months in crude in last 2 years, this year it is not going great. The issue is compounding and higher leveraging will soon take out the flexbility of using increased leverage.

You are too senior to get noob advice like this, but a single trade with big leverage, even going wrong by 10 points will be a disaster.

We can be Control:
1. Position Size
2.Net Captial deployed
3. The signal we want to follow (need practice)
4. Deciding the Exit point in case of failure
5. Deciding the Exit point in case of success or trailing amount (by % or pips)


But, we can not Control
1. The outcome of the trade

This 5:1 game makes this whole trading so unique that even the most successful trader, on paper will not gurantee even 10 points a day. Cause, the time you do it, there is not limit to the money you can make, considering there is no limit of the money one stinking rich guy can deploy.

1 lakh to 1 Crore in 60 days with 10 points will require High leverage + Compounding. A losing streak of 3-4 trades at the mid point of journey (when you are may be at 20-30lakh caps), will incurr the drawdown, we will back to square one.

Controlled compounding is ok, leverage not good.

I am neither senior, nor pro trader yet.
I saw a youtube video, where the fellow told , 20 pts in crude per day with 10K capital can become 1 crore in approx 20 trading days. He showed some excel crap.
Of course, I don believe in that youtube fellow.

And whatever u say , not only myself, but many of us take it seriously, and none of us will consider it as noob advice.

See, because of that post, u gave a beautiful write up, also some really important screenshot.
Will wait for some more gems and by tomo maybe will move these posts to the pnL thread. Can't let it buried here.

The third screenshot said the most imp thing.. Adding more and more analysis to cover all the market variables will not create consistency.

Thats what I have been doing wrong since so many stupid years..

Trading as a process should be enjoyed, and we cant enjoy it if we think of m2m, capital etc.
There are lot of things i would like to say regarding some of my recent experiences, but this is not the right time.
Anyway I will refrain from saying further, I may hurt many ppl's feelings. !!!

 

[Tuna]

Don't hesitate to say anything , I mean it, when you are this thread. Real traders dont get hurt by what people are saying - we see it , rationalise it , accept / reject / or stay indifferent.

If we feel upset or angry ( at times we do) we are simply are not in our trading mindset

 

[stock_mani]

Thanks for sharing above screen shots tuna bro.. bitter but true said.

 

[Just-Trade]

choti mu badi baat...
10 pts per day in crude can make a person crorepati, in maybe 60 trading days, with a modest capital of 1L.
Of course theoretically it is possible, practically very few has the guts to do this.

These are all day dreaming. One stop loss hit would put you back where you have started.

Just-Trade