Rules from the Masters

#41
12/2/08

I do not know how to Thank Mr. Ivanboesky. The list of GEMS that he has spread all over is mind-blowing. As I am new - I have to read - reread to understand them. But I know - I can finally make a new list for my very own trading psychology. It is true that all the rules from all the Masters may not work for everyone or for all times but SOME RULES ARE TRUE FOR ALL TIMES. One has to understand and analyse which one will work for her/him.

THANKS once more.
Nandini
 
#42
Sorry for the long absence from active posting on the forum...

Here is one that I have seen a lot in our market... broker 'buy' recommendations! Very rare 'sell' or 'hold' recos.

Tony Golding
Tony Golding spent 24 years in the City, mostly with Flemings, as an investment analyst in a stockbroking firm, in fund management (as head of research) and, latterly, in investment banking.

Interpreting broker research and recommendations

1. Don't take broker research recommendations at face value.

Be as sceptical as you would if you were buying a used car. You know that the salesman is likely to be more interested in doing the deal than worrying whether it will run smoothly for the next year, or even two!

2. 'Buy' recommendations are always in the majority.

'Hold' is also common but 'sell' recommendations are virtually in the hens' teeth category. Which is fine in a bull market when a rising tide floats all boats. But this built-in 'buy bias' clearly doesn't make sense when share prices are falling and brokers continue to urge purchase all the way down.

3. Broker recommendations have always had a strong 'buy bias'.

No analyst wants to risk offending the company he is researching as he is heavily reliant on it for information. The problem is that this 'buy bias' has become significantly worse in the last few years. The main reason is the increasing involvement of analysts with investment banking work, mostly new issues and advising on acquisitions.

4. It is an unfortunate fact that investment banking is much, much more profitable than buying and selling shares for investment institutions.

So increasingly research is used by investment banks to make corporate clients - or potential corporate clients - feel warm and cuddly. Institutions have responded to this lack of objectivity by setting up their own internal research. They now use equity analysts primarily for information (on the company and its sector) and not much for advice on whether to buy, hold or sell.

5. What is written and what is said are two very different things.

A fund manager can call an analyst to ask him what he really thinks of a stock. You can't! Often analysts would like to be more objective but - in public at least - have to go along with their employer's 'house view'.

6. The larger the investment bank or stockbroking firm that employs the analyst making the recommendation, the less likely it is to reflect what the analyst really thinks.

In big, integrated investment banks the pressures to toe the line are intense though some - those with a tradition of independent research - give their analysts greater freedom.

7. When judging the objectivity of recommendations, look at where the fees are earned.

Objective recommendations (including a willingness to use the dreaded 'sell' word!) are much more likely to come from firms that rely exclusively or heavily on trading shares for their living and do little or no investment banking.

8. The bottom line is: the private investor needs to take care.

Treat recommendations with due scepticism. For many analysts working in investment banks, getting the share-price right is no longer their primary motivation.
 
#43
Again relevant to the Indian markets... with fund mangers hopping all over the place (from one MF to another), and with MFs out to garner as much AUM as they can (whether they can manage it or not/ if they think markets & stocks are overvalued or not), this holds relevance.

John Husselbee
John Husselbee is a Director at Henderson Global Investors, where he is responsible for portfolio construction and fund selection for a complete range of multi manager, mutual fund portfolios. John has over 10 years experience, both at Henderson Global Investors and Rothschild Asset Management, researching and selecting fund managers to include in his retail portfolios. He sits on the AUTIF Performance Committee as well as the advisory panel for the Investment Week Mutual Fund Awards. John writes a regular monthly column for Bloomberg Money and is a regular guest on Bloomberg TV.

Selecting a mutual fund manager

1. Never use an old map to find new countries.

One thing I firmly believe is that consistent performance doesn't exist. The past is only a guide. I prefer to use it as such and then look a little deeper. I want to find out how and why a fund has achieved a top ranking and then establish whether those reasons can be imposed upon current market conditions and future market prospects.

2. It's not all about returns.

It may be a simple observation but a fund's objective is a key issue for me. And the objective is not simply to make lots of money. Each fund has a stated objective, quoted in their scheme particulars, and guidelines on how it aims to achieve it. Does the objective match your own? Is the manager's style, which can be gleaned from the types of company he holds (larger companies or smaller companies, for example), appropriate? A clear understanding of the objectives and management style and consistency of approach will assist in predicting how the fund will behave in the prevailing market conditions.

3. Experience brings its own rewards - let the apprentices practice with someone else's money.

The fund manager's experience is extremely important. And that means experience relevant to the fund he is managing. Look at the manager's track record for both his current fund and any previously managed funds. This information can be easily obtained. I'm happier investing in managers who have mastered their craft in varying types of market conditions. This is particularly relevant given the extended bull run we've seen recently. There are many managers out there who have no experience of managing money in bear markets.

Loyalty and length of tenure are also attractive qualities in a fund manager. As well as providing a clear track record, they can also highlight whether a manager's own objectives are in line with the fund's.

4. You can get a better view from the big house on the hill.

The larger investment houses can bring a great deal to the party. In many instances the investment house dictates asset allocation and has particular views which the fund manager is bound to follow. This will naturally have a big effect on how the fund is managed and how it performs. So remember you're buying the house as well as the manager.

The larger houses can also provide a great deal of resources to the fund manager, particularly in the form of global economic and company information. The manager of a large house will gain greater access to the companies he invests in. Such first hand information will certainly benefit you as an investor. These houses can also provide an element of security and inspire confidence.

5. Elephants can't gallop.

The size of a fund matters and can bring with it problems for the manager. Good managers very often become victims of their own success. Cash pours in from investors hoping to share in the success of the top performing funds. Trying to invest large amounts of money can dilute a manager's ideas.

Make sure the size of the fund sits well with the fund's objectives. A smaller companies fund, for example, is going to have difficulty investing 1 billion. A word of warning though: small funds can flatter an average fund manager so don't go small for the sake of it.

6. Show me what's up your sleeve!

Investing money isn't a magic show. You should expect complete transparency. There should be a clear flow of information, revealing exactly what a manager is up to. The companies he invests in, the transactions that take place and the reasons why decisions have been made. You can only make an informed decision if you have all the information to hand. The manager should have no secrets. If he's hiding something then he's got something to hide.

7. Beware the siren's call.

Don't let the clamour of sales and promotions distract you from the core essentials of investing. Be confident in the reasons why you are investing. Everyone's looking to promote Number One figures and you'd be amazed how many Number One funds there are out there. Look behind the figures and check the timescales and the management. A Number One fund is no good to you if the manager has since left. And watch out for the press-fuelled thematic bandwagon. It could entice you onto the rocks of an investment you're simply not suited to.

8. Be sure you understand what you're letting yourself in for.

Investing is a risky business. In fact it is the business of managing risk. Always understand that if you're chasing big returns they come at a price. Risk and return is a clear trade-off so make sure you're comfortable with the ratio.

9. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

You can't beat in depth research. Quality information makes the decision process less emotive. Look deeper - it's worth it.

10. Knowing when to sell.

You should review your circumstances and expectations regularly and see if your current portfolio still sits comfortably within them. If it doesn't, make changes.

Remember, poor performance may be temporary so understand why before making a decision. If a manager has left - what's the new one like? If the manager isn't doing what he said he would - what is the impact on you?

Most of all, take control. Ensure that you are getting what you want from your investments. They are yours, after all.
 
#47
Many many thanx Ivan

To improve things I have put all the rules in one doc for ease of reference fo r the members so that the same can be floated around in hardcopy form for the general good.

b.a.m.
 

drpsiva

Active Member
#48
Many many thanx Ivan

To improve things I have put all the rules in one doc for ease of reference fo r the members so that the same can be floated around in hardcopy form for the general good.

b.a.m.
hi bamks,
thanks for your generous mind and work.:)