What to do if you keep losing!!??

oxusmorouz · #21 11th September 2007, 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CreditViolet

Another thing is, one is paid in the market to bear risk.If the company cant lose money then there is no risk and there would be no profit, the return rate will quickly go down to the risk-free rate."Value Investing' is easier to talk about then to apply it in the real world.Do you know that the fund based on Benjamin Graham's ideas were one of the worst performing mutual funds of all time.Benjamin Graham sold out when Dow was 500 believing it wont go any higher.Thats another problem with FA, it keeps you out of the exuberance that markets exhibit.
Also, just scanning for PEG, EPS, Sectoral Plays etc is NOT FA and investing has nothing to do with directional betting on the market.However you will find that most 'investors' are just interested in analyzing why the market have topped or why it shouldnt go lower.

Not to forget CV, he even asked his students to quit trading when the Dow was above 100, believing it was extremely overvalued at 100 :d . Read this one in Practical Speculation

swagat86 · #22 11th September 2007, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CreditViolet

Dear JB

Let me emphasize my point again.The question of 'never failing' is not important because one makes money when the value of the asset increases or decreases from their buying or selling point.A Tata or a Reliance company might not fail but someone who bought it at 50 and CMP is 20, its not much of a consolation. As I said earlier about the dotcoom era, companies like Intel and ***** have not exactly failed but many a people have lost their shirts in it neverthless.
Also with so many funds, CFAs, CFPs around its not that easy to have an edge there and there are always insiders who know more than what is officially on the books.

Another thing is, one is paid in the market to bear risk.If the company cant lose money then there is no risk and there would be no profit, the return rate will quickly go down to the risk-free rate."Value Investing' is easier to talk about then to apply it in the real world.Do you know that the fund based on Benjamin Graham's ideas were one of the worst performing mutual funds of all time.Benjamin Graham sold out when Dow was 500 believing it wont go any higher.Thats another problem with FA, it keeps you out of the exuberance that markets exhibit.
Also, just scanning for PEG, EPS, Sectoral Plays etc is NOT FA and investing has nothing to do with directional betting on the market.However you will find that most 'investors' are just interested in analyzing why the market have topped or why it shouldnt go lower.

About getting opinions,I have heard that one before. When I was working for a fund it was basically about 'discussing', 'collaborating', 'cooperating' and 'sharing'.Basically it was one glorfied 'tip' analysis rather than any quantitative method.People had no idea what they were doing but were very eager to discuss it.Its just my experience that opinionated investing/trading doesnt work well, one has to step aside and think independently to do well at this game.

Regards

Very gud write up CV ji awesome.

Thanks

Jason Bourne · #23 11th September 2007, 09:34 PM

points taken CV

Happy to have interacted wid u .....One question though. I have read that people could have easily seen overvalued companies even in the Dot com bust (i mean even solid companies like Cisco) through the PE ratio which is FA.
I agree that tech analysis is alsoo important so that u are not late in a rally.

What is ur take on that ?

regards,
JB

CreditViolet · #24 11th September 2007, 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oxusmorouz

Not to forget CV, he even asked his students to quit trading when the Dow was above 100, believing it was extremely overvalued at 100 :d . Read this one in Practical Speculation

Yup, funny reading.Niederhoffer does make some valid points against the so-called Value Investing.

CreditViolet · #25 11th September 2007, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by swagat86

Very gud write up CV ji awesome.

Thanks

Thank You Swagatji

CreditViolet · #26 11th September 2007, 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jason Bourne

points taken CV

Happy to have interacted wid u .....One question though. I have read that people could have easily seen overvalued companies even in the Dot com bust (i mean even solid companies like Cisco) through the PE ratio which is FA.
I agree that tech analysis is alsoo important so that u are not late in a rally.

What is ur take on that ?

regards,
JB

About Cisco, there were also a lot of people who lost their shirts shorting the markets before the crash happened, I know a few who said it couldnt go any higher but it did.Well its easy to see everything in hindsight, I mean if markets take a U-turn here and go bust many people will say that they could see it coming because of the fundamentals otherwise if the markets make new highs you will find talk shows on liquidity driven markets, the IndoChina growth story etc.There are always reasons but in real-time markets are very efficient, by the time one has come to a well formed opinion markets might already have discounted it.

And I am not advocating TA here, most of TA doesnt work either.Properly tested most of TA doesnt hold up either.

investokick · #27 6th November 2007, 11:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by swagat86

Very gud write up CV ji awesome.

Thanks

Exaclty, just like I said before, you can never avoid risk totally but, so if you want guarantees then go buy a fridge. for forex, we all know forebastards, for sit back and relax returns we all know dealsjamaica, best broker we all know mbtrading and for stock advice we all know stockcharts. If you combine all these then you'll have the best investment experience of your life. Be smart and act wisely.

alpha1 · #28 7th November 2007, 03:05 PM

CV has already highlighted the shortcomings of FA.
Ofcourse, the fact that FA cannot bank on momentum being the biggest.

FA also doesnt tell when exactly to enter / exit a trade (which can make or break).

TA may not work always - but as a trader you are more concerned about overall win percentage. Which is what is the prupose of TA.

Now I am unaware of whatever tricks are up CV's sleeves, but even those would also be more concerned about making each trade more profitable, as well as making most of the trades profitable.

FA, in my opinion, addresses none of these issues directly.

investokick · #29 7th November 2007, 08:32 PM

I hear yah alpha one, how long have you been in investments?

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