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  #11  
Old 6th August 2016, 01:22 PM
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Default Re: Smart_Trade Fan Club

On top of very useful trading knowledge and hidden gems of trading wisdom, Smart Traders' post carry a subtle sincerity that gives me complete confidence in this man and his advice.

Thanks rip07 for starting this thread.


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  #12  
Old 6th August 2016, 08:32 PM
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Default Re: Smart_Trade Fan Club

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Originally Posted by Smart_trade View Post
I and few of my friends did the analysis of our real estate investments over 15-20 years time when the real estate appreciated steeply....equity mutual funds are very much ahead in returns. Kashikar's study also proves the same point.

Smart_trade
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Originally Posted by Smart_trade View Post
Some interesting read :

http://wealthforumezine.net/Investor...ipt110415I.pdf

Smart_trade
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Originally Posted by Smart_trade View Post
Open land investments have different problems like encroachment, land grabbing, local land mafia after the plot appreciates, haftas to be paid to the goons...it is not easy to hold the land bought in 1975 without any of these issues unless one is a powerful person politically.......and if someone is so powerful, he has many other means of wealth creation some legitimate and many illegitimate.I have suffered in the above troubles...

Against that if you have 5 Cr in equity mutual funds, your next door person also wont know about it as it will lie in your demat account or just a account statement in physical form......

Smart_trade
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  #13  
Old 6th August 2016, 08:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Smart_trade View Post
Look at the companies which are growing in their earnings...if you see the multibaggers in last 5-6 years you will see that all these companies were operating in fields where there is not much of Govt restrictions and controls, they had a unique product, good acceptance and earnings were growing by not by 10-12 % but 50-70 % YOY and QOQ...these are signs of a multibagger in making.. I had identified TTK Prestige, Asian Paints,Nestle ,HDFC Bank etc in past....had my share of misses also...

Smart_trade
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Very true Sudoku....I have a friend who is an industialist. He is my engineering college classmate. He started with one small factory in a rental shed and now is owing 9-10 factories..He once was going to Kolhapur to see some sick unit to buy and asked me also to come along and get blessings of Mahalaxmi of Kolhapur.

We saw the factory, building....he discussed with his general manager how to use the assets....then I saw big recession in Auto industry to which this person supplies ( he is an expert in CNC machines and precision auto components made ) ...many sheds were closed, in broken condition...no work..no money. I asked him are you buying a unit when others are closing theirs ? He said yes...this is the time to acquire assets, put proper machinery as the assets will be available at throwaway prices...machines available on deferred payments and installments....and I will make killing when the sector improves in next 2-3 years...till then I will get this sick unit done up to my requirements. Same holds for investing.

ST
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Originally Posted by Smart_trade View Post
http://www.motilaloswalmf.com/produc...ar-opportunity

The above is a Portfolio of Next Trillion Dollars Strategy by Motilal Oswal.This strategy has already given 47% CAGR in last 3 years period which is fantastic return.

Observe the high performer stocks held in the portfolio. Very focussed portfolio with just 17-18 stocks.

Smart_trade
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  #14  
Old 6th August 2016, 08:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Smart_trade View Post
Not sure whether I am qualified to guide anyone but our trades should be independent of profits/loss of earlier trades. This is ideal but after a big loss due to say terminal hanging,net failure which are beyond our control, I find that some fear or anxiety creeps in the next trade. I reduce my quantities for next 2-3 trades and after that comeback to normal quantity and normal trades...

Smart_trade

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Originally Posted by Smart_trade View Post
The question is does one have courage to take the trade with same quantity after the big loss ...if he has courage then he wont be asking this question and having difficulty in pulling the trigger...and trading as if all trades are independent irrespective of their outcome. But that is ideal situation...invariably the trader will end up leaving few trades after the loss out of fear....we have to sometimes deal with situations which are not ideal.Reducing quantity after a big loss ( mind you the operating word is big loss not the normal 1 R loss) is standard MM ( as we increase the quantity after substantial profit.)After a major loss our mind is little disturbed so we have to regain the confidence by winning few trades.

But you can have your views and tell Raamakant to be bold and accept the loss " boldly ".

Smart_trade
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  #15  
Old 6th August 2016, 09:08 PM
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Default Re: Smart_Trade Fan Club

The Option Advisor by Bertram J. Schaeffer - 336 pages
http://www.amazon.in/The-Option-Advi...7110659&sr=8-1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smart_trade View Post
Yes that is the book. I have a hard copy of that. The green cover it showed looked different first but when you click on that you see cream coloured cover...that is the one I have...

This book is written from the point of view of options buyers and it is simple to follow.


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  #16  
Old 6th August 2016, 09:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Smart_trade View Post
Simple thought process....in swing trades I follow intermediate /visual trends which is up...there is no sign that it has changed to downtrend. We get minor downtrends and uptrends every day...but our eyes for swing trades should be on visual/intermediate trends.

In swing trades in uptrend I buy the extreme panic, and sell the rallies to buy the dips again. But my overall holding will be long....I am fully aware and prepared for biting a bullet and take 40-50 points loss in a trade when the trend changes...but till then I will have plenty of points in my pocket ( in the current trade, half of my month's target is already done in just 1 day....so will be more than happy to take a 50 points SL in swing trade....as I have already pocketed many such 50-100 points moves already...

I dont predict the market ...how far it will go etc....but many will remember that when Combo hit its stoploss, I had posted that now after hitting 8300 stoploss, the market will not go up by 50-100 points but will do 300-400-500 points now...so that also is in the background though I cannot say where the current trend will end....all those channelling, Fibonacchi etc are just estimates...just be with the trend....and dont say "Market Topped Out " ,Negative Divergence etc when we see a minor downtrend.

The above is enough for being a happy trader.

Smart_trade
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smart_trade View Post
This is what happens in selling straddles....in gap up/gap down it is difficult to protect the straddle...( by buying small futures lots and this type of protection is very tough to handle )) best I think is buying 200 points out of money calls to protect in case of huge upmove...but the market may comeback in the range....selling straddle is no easy and sure money...

Smart_trade

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Originally Posted by Smart_trade View Post
Every strategy in options will have risk...few need constant monitoring and protection,changes....there is no strategy which will give 30-40 points with negligible risk....if it was there I want to put few crores on it...there is no strategy which will take care of all market conditions...it is like having a holy grail.

Smart_trade

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  #17  
Old 6th August 2016, 09:43 PM
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No not a Bengali....I am from Maharashtra....people call me Da with love and affection.

Smart_trade

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Originally Posted by Smart_trade View Post
Mornings Yoga,Pranayaam,stretches .....for 45 min

evening brisk walking and jogging...for 1 hour. I was a good sportsman in school/college.

Used to attend a health club for weight training, aerobics,Treadmill, but now with some backache problem I am adviced not to go for heavy excercises.

ST
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  #18  
Old 6th August 2016, 09:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Smart_trade View Post
We need to understand what is needed to make money in trading.Markets are trending only 30 % time so we must make large money in those 30 % time by holding the positions and also adding at various levels. In sideways period we will have a few stoplosses and loosing trades but the money made in trends should be much more than money we loose on stoplosses.Good trend traders make typically 3 to 8 times the price move by number of adds. So if the move is 500 points, they make 1500 points from that move by adds.

For traders abroad, they have facility to trade many markets on their screen so they can decide to trade only those markets which are trending...that is the reason why a trending market gets more participation and a dull market has less participation.

We in India only have Stocks and few commodities to trade. It is always better to trade trending markets because in trends your risk is actually much less and rewards much more. But in sideways market also it like taking singles in cricket...for a large score, singles are also important as markets will give singles 70 % time.. But this is from a point of view of a futures trader. If one is options trader specialising in selling of calls/puts he is more happy in sideways markets .

Sideways markets are difficult to trade so initially traders will do well if they trade only trending markets and stay out in sideways markets...but with experience one can trade in both type of markets.

Smart_trade
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Originally Posted by Smart_trade View Post
My thumb rule is when Nifty falls more than 30 points from the top it reaches....then the chances of trend days are very low...less than 10 %....it may consolidate the whole day ...

Smart_trade

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Originally Posted by Smart_trade View Post
One can convert this simple observation into a trading set up...In strong markets I always buy a 15-20 points dip...and keep a stoploss at 15 points below my entry point. In 80 % time this trade will work...and 20 % time if it hits a stop then the market goes listless and I am not interested in hanging around in that market from bullish side. Trading need not be on too complicated methods...simple setups like this works wonders.

ST
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  #19  
Old 7th August 2016, 10:50 AM
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Default Re: Smart_Trade Fan Club

Quote:
Received a pm from a member whose name is deleted for the purpose of secrecy;

From *****

Sir
I have a system based on price action and currently trading on it when I backrest manually it gave 400++ point . but in actual performance laggards due to fear and overtraining can you help me to manage as emotion factor come sometime I miss big trade in favor how you manage please help me I m trading nifty only intra

My reply to his pm :

As the system is giving 400 points in a backtest it seems to be a good system. Then are you backtesting truthfully taking all trades ? ( and not dropping bad trades)

Over trading you have to avoid. Trade as per your MM and set up.

Why do you miss a big trade ? That should not happen....if you miss a trade entry, look for another entry in that direction.

These are the improvements you have to do and they take time.

Smart_trade
http://www.traderji.com/general-trad...chat-3533.html

Quote:
Following the market where it goes requires extensive experience. It's more psychological - undoing that markets can do anything - not just stopping everytime at support/resistance

But when one gets started in trading - even for mid level traders - you end up burning yourself badly by just following the markets - by not managing the volatility - and then it's the fear in unconsicous mind that starts kicking in these beliefs' - isse upper nahi jaa sakti market - let me buy puts/short sell

Question - How does a swing trader manage gap up/down - let's assume your system gave you strong signal yesterday before EOD - and you went short and today markets gap up 100+ points - all the Money Management would go for toss : 7500 loss on 1.5 to 2L/lot --> 3.5%-4% loss --> How does one tackle those situations - Book loss - respecting the market at open - as one can't assume ki market will respect support/resistence - right
Every trader has to find a way of handling this issue. One way is saying stops are loo much away so I will pass the trade...another way is can I do something which will catch the trend as well as not step out of my risk control...so everyone has to work on that. Market is not interested in problems....it wants solutions.

I have posted how I handle it...it is my way of handling this....I do this everytime and have found it work.Some say that it does not work for them,, so they will have their own solutions...but solution we must find out....else say no trade...watching it go up.

Smart_trade
http://www.traderji.com/general-trad...chat-3565.html
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  #20  
Old 7th August 2016, 10:50 AM
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Default Re: Smart_Trade Fan Club

Quote:
THE POSITION SIZING AND MM GAME

Make 40 small pieces of paper,on 20 write SUCCESS and on 20 write "FAIL" and fold them and put them in a glass bowl. Then ask a small child in the family to pick up each slip from the bowl and you read whether success or fail.

The sttarting capital is Rs 1,00,000/- and At each trade you will risk 25 % of the capital. If the trade is success,you make double the amount of money risked on a trade and if it is failure,you loose the amount risked on that trade. So for first trade your cum equity balance is Rs 1,00,000/- and the amount risked is 25000/- so if the slip says success,you make 25000*2 =50,000/- and your cum equity is 1,50,000/- now and on next trade you bet 25 % of 1,50,000/-. so go on like this till 40 trades are over.

The final amount you will have is not dependent on the sequence of your winning/loosing trades,consecutuve looses,wins etc and final amount is over Rs 10,50,000/- Dont believe me ? Try it out. I have spent 3 hrs on this game early in my career and tried coin toss,various sequence of alternate win/loss,10 losses and 10 wins in sequence etc…But the final wealth is same not even a rupee more or rupee less.

What does this prove ? Have a competent system,backtest,have a good mm and trade with confidence. Your sequence of losses and gains make no difference in ultimate results of building your wealth as long as your method has a positive expectancy and edge. Hope you enjoyed the game and learnt something from it…..About expectancy, we will discuss later...

I am no way advocating risking 25% on every trade. This is just illustration because optimal f for this system is 25 %. But 25 % is way tooo high. Start with 1-2 % and put your profits to work for you….


Smart_trade
http://www.traderji.com/futures/9266...trading-3.html

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