Elliottwave count for SENSEX

copperdesk · #81 20th May 2006, 12:33 AM

Hello all the seniors,

I invite you all to pls have a look at my thread http://www.traderji.com/equities/660...-intraday.html. Please give me five minutes.

All that i know whether it 0 or 100, is learnt from here. Learnt from you. And ofcourse how can i forget good 'ol Google.

And pls judge/rate it. Your valuable comment is very much needed. Pls Suggest me to how can i do better?

Thank you.

CopperDesk.

joy_verma · #82 22nd May 2006, 07:23 AM

Hi,
So this was a long protracted bullmarket minor wave which took seven months to complete and was almost 5000 points long. In an old post I had indicated that a major time window was approaching in april 2006( +/- one month error). This correction hit this fibonacci time window head on.The question is are we in for a prolonged correction of primary degree wave or are we in a bit smaller degree wave correction ? Some elliotticians believe we are in smaller degree correction. That will mean after correcting for some weeks/a month or so we should resume the bullsurge. My position is that if the current down leg divides in an impuse wave then we are in for a long/big correction and if the current down wave divides into a three instead of five then we will be correcting sideways and with a possibility of another high. This will also mean a extension to the earlier bull leg. I had been warning investors and traders for the past few weeks about the possible trend change as overwhelming evidence was pointing to this impending reversal . Those who heeded may have benifited. In the short term, a further weakness will mean that indices are going down impusively and a prolonged correction is on the cards.
Regards,
vinay

joy_verma · #83 28th May 2006, 09:45 AM

Hi,
Sensex had a nasty intraday plunge as trading was suspended for one hour on monday after hiting the lower circuit. It dipped below 10000 to form an intraday low of 9827. The index recovered after that and went up to 11050 in the remaining trading week. This decline is so far a three wave affair and with a possibility that a flat or a triangle is forming. If this scenario unfolds we will see a new high above the previous highs. But if we see further spike down below the recent lows of 9827 then a zig-zag formation will become inevitable. The implications of this development will be a deeper correction but not the termination of bull market. Therefore, the level of 11379 on the upside is important as a overlap of this level will mean we are not going to fall drastically.And on the lower side the level of 9827 is important as a breach of this will mean completion of first leg of fall from 12671 levels and not the completion of whole correction. In the meantime I have reworked my long term wave count of sensex after consultations with other elliotticians and all seem to agree that the correction that began at 2000 highs ended at 2003 in elliott terms . This also resolves the problem of differring wave counts in two indices namely sensex and nifty. http://spaces.msn.com/sensex-nifty/
Regards,
vinay

gvnarendra · #84 28th May 2006, 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joy_verma

Hi,
Sensex had a nasty intraday plunge as trading was suspended for one hour on monday after hiting the lower circuit. It dipped below 10000 to form an intraday low of 9827. The index recovered after that and went up to 11050 in the remaining trading week. This decline is so far a three wave affair and with a possibility that a flat or a triangle is forming. If this scenario unfolds we will see a new high above the previous highs. But if we see further spike down below the recent lows of 9827 then a zig-zag formation will become inevitable. The implications of this development will be a deeper correction but not the termination of bull market. Therefore, the level of 11379 on the upside is important as a overlap of this level will mean we are not going to fall drastically.And on the lower side the level of 9827 is important as a breach of this will mean completion of first leg of fall from 12671 levels and not the completion of whole correction. In the meantime I have reworked my long term wave count of sensex after consultations with other elliotticians and all seem to agree that the correction that began at 2000 highs ended at 2003 in elliott terms . This also resolves the problem of differring wave counts in two indices namely sensex and nifty. http://spaces.msn.com/sensex-nifty/
Regards,
vinay

hello vinay,

The fall this week truely nasty. Even saw a report on elliottwave.com stating that this crash was one of the sensational crashes in the world in the recent times.Right now I am not able to track back that link.

So if 2003 had marked the end of correction of 2000 then the high at the start of 2004 marks the intermediate wave 1 which you had marked (3) earlier. So right now we are either in intermediate wave 4 or minor wave 4.I have attached a log chart of monthly bse data to show what i am saying.If that is the case after this correction we could see index moving towards 15400 region which marks the equality of 1st wave(on log scale) of cycle degree marked on the chart. Going with the channel lines on the chart this could be around early 2007.this could happen if present correction is a flat correction.

One problem is that the minor 3rd wave which you have marked on bse turns out to be shorter than 1st and 5th minor wave in nifty.Going only with nifty, rules of elliott wave calls for an extension of third wave as 3rd wave cannot be the shortest.That is we are going to end up with a flat correction now and not a strong down move.Going with price patterns, a bear flag is under development and a negation of this pattern could also indicate a flat corrective.so in coming week this dilemma of whether to go with count of nifty or bse could be cleared.

regards,
gvnarendra.

joy_verma · #85 28th May 2006, 06:53 PM

hi gvn,
Now there are many ways to count sensex but nifty has a
clearer wave picture than sensex. see images.

vinay

gvnarendra · #86 28th May 2006, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joy_verma

hi gvn,
Now there are many ways to count sensex but nifty has a
clearer wave picture than sensex. see images.

vinay

Thanks vinay for making the picture more clearer.

gvnarendra

joy_verma · #87 10th June 2006, 07:09 PM

Hi,
In the past analysis I had opined that a break of 9827 will push sensex to a deeper correction. The sensex accordingly went into a tailspin once that level was broken. I had also said that a break of this level will mean that an impulsive decline will occur.According to this scenario this would mean that sensex will trace out a zigzag and the decline from the top looks we are there. The only thing to see is that whether wave A is complete or another push down below the latest low is required. This will become clear next week. On the alternate count front this correction may be tracing out a double zigzag pattern. If so, then the corrective phase will be near completion or completed. But I will be sticking to the first scenario, which means a B wave rally followed by another five wave down wave C to complete this correction which began at 12671 levels. INR/USD wave count :: After looking at Indian national rupee v/s us dollar chart, I am of the opinion that our currency has formed a significant low at 46.56 levels. I was expecting an expanded flat correction for this primary degree wave but the structure ultimately resolved in favour of a triangle. Contrary to the opinion of many fundamental analysts I am of the opinion that no new lows will be formed now and rupee should strenghthen vis a vis dollar as a vicious primary wave C has begun.
Regards,
vinay

amitt29 · #88 10th June 2006, 09:30 PM

Welcome back Vinayji.
Seeing the daily chart(of nifty)do you think a triangle is in formation.Attempting to correct the downtrend.
Thanks.

Czar · #89 11th June 2006, 12:39 AM

Request please elaborate on "But I will be sticking to the first scenario, which means a B wave rally followed by another five wave down wave C to complete this correction which began at 12671 levels."

thanks...

joy_verma · #90 11th June 2006, 12:22 PM

hi Amit hi czar,
only vinay will do no ji please. The action of the past week
has put the triangle possibility in doubt as the action looks
impulsive. I can count 5 waves down from the 12671 on hourly
chart though daily chart is still showing a possibility of one more
down wave. Some times wave a of triangles show complex
formation so I am waiting for confirmation. Also this wave has
given a retracement of more than 50% of previous leg which is
quite a correction for wave A and if sensex and nifty are indeed
tracing out a zig zag You can see another severe decline in the
coming days after wave B completes itself. In the meantime I have
disscussed sensex with EWI european finanacial forcast analyst
Tom Denham and we reviewed our respective counts . It was a
pleasure to have disscussuions with such a learned analyst who
covers emerging markets like India China for EWI. I have accordingly
adjusted my long term count which I will post in future.
vinay

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