Elliottwave count for SENSEX

Saint · #71 5th May 2006, 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joy_verma

hi saint,
True, no reason to flee yet as we may see higher levels but
a wise husband is he who prepares his wife for hardtimes

vinay

Yep Vinay,we are on the same page............looking fwd to more wave analysis from you.

Great thread,my friend.

Saint

joy_verma · #72 7th May 2006, 08:09 PM

Hi,
The 12102 level break on the upside imparted sensex the expected bullishness and
the index gained more than 4% in the trading week. The bullishness continues unabaited
as we see increased participation and interest being shown by retail investors. Usually
retail participation increases at a time when markets reach their respective tops.
This week I am attaching a weekly log chart of sensex . As you will notice I have stuck
to my long held count for long term analysis and has not buzzed a bit from my old stance.
Not that I donot want to turn bullish but because there are still many issues to get cleared.
One reason for that is that Rsi on weekly charts has not crossed the previous January 2004
highs. and is showing negative divergence. If it is a third wave extension, as many elliotticians
think it is, then this indicator should have been hitting higher values on this chart . On the
contrary it is showing negative divergence. Secondly, it has been observed by the elliotticians
that in a five wave advance volume is greatest in wave 3 and starts declining in wave 5 of
a wave degree which less than primary. Volume, as can be seen in the chart, is currently
on a down slope. Another volume charateristic is that if wave 5 is extending then volume
should be greater than wave 3. On both counts, we find volume declining. So, what does
this portray? Are we near the top ? Now these two possibilities are holding me back from
switching to more bullish counts . So, untill my this count is not invalidated I will stick to this
count. Happy Trading,
Regards,
vinay

amitt29 · #73 7th May 2006, 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joy_verma

Hi,
The 12102 level break on the upside imparted sensex the expected bullishness and
the index gained more than 4% in the trading week. The bullishness continues unabaited
as we see increased participation and interest being shown by retail investors. Usually
retail participation increases at a time when markets reach their respective tops.
This week I am attaching a weekly log chart of sensex . As you will notice I have stuck
to my long held count for long term analysis and has not buzzed a bit from my old stance.
Not that I donot want to turn bullish but because there are still many issues to get cleared.
One reason for that is that Rsi on weekly charts has not crossed the previous January 2004
highs. and is showing negative divergence. If it is a third wave extension, as many elliotticians
think it is, then this indicator should have been hitting higher values on this chart . On the
contrary it is showing negative divergence. Secondly, it has been observed by the elliotticians
that in a five wave advance volume is greatest in wave 3 and starts declining in wave 5 of
a wave degree which less than primary. Volume, as can be seen in the chart, is currently
on a down slope. Another volume charateristic is that if wave 5 is extending then volume
should be greater than wave 3. On both counts, we find volume declining. So, what does
this portray? Are we near the top ? Now these two possibilities are holding me back from
switching to more bullish counts . So, untill my this count is not invalidated I will stick to this
count. Happy Trading,
Regards,
vinay

Hi Vinaybhai,
I totally agree with you,there is a lot of confusion with the counts,only if we couple up the alternate count with the overall bullishness we can say that we may make new tops otherwise its a little confusin,perhaps the picture may clear out by Tuesday.

gvnarendra · #74 8th May 2006, 12:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joy_verma

Hi,
The 12102 level break on the upside imparted sensex the expected bullishness and
the index gained more than 4% in the trading week. The bullishness continues unabaited
as we see increased participation and interest being shown by retail investors. Usually
retail participation increases at a time when markets reach their respective tops.
This week I am attaching a weekly log chart of sensex . As you will notice I have stuck
to my long held count for long term analysis and has not buzzed a bit from my old stance.
Not that I donot want to turn bullish but because there are still many issues to get cleared.
One reason for that is that Rsi on weekly charts has not crossed the previous January 2004
highs. and is showing negative divergence. If it is a third wave extension, as many elliotticians
think it is, then this indicator should have been hitting higher values on this chart . On the
contrary it is showing negative divergence. Secondly, it has been observed by the elliotticians
that in a five wave advance volume is greatest in wave 3 and starts declining in wave 5 of
a wave degree which less than primary. Volume, as can be seen in the chart, is currently
on a down slope. Another volume charateristic is that if wave 5 is extending then volume
should be greater than wave 3. On both counts, we find volume declining. So, what does
this portray? Are we near the top ? Now these two possibilities are holding me back from
switching to more bullish counts . So, untill my this count is not invalidated I will stick to this
count. Happy Trading,
Regards,
vinay

hello vinay,

That was very neately explained.this thread is really very educative for an elliotician to learn the critical points that one has to think about at a certain situation and also keeping in mind about the alternate scenarios which may occur at the same time. But if we take nifty for counting 3rd wave extension of your wave (5) may already in progress.
Though minute wave counts donot matter very much when long term counts are taken into account,I am attaching a nifty fut graph with wave counts.In my opinion wave 1 of the wave 5 or the wave 5 may be about to end in the coming sessions.A breakout from the lower blue trendline may confirm that.
please correct me if i am wrong.

regards,
gvnarendra.

joy_verma · #75 8th May 2006, 06:30 AM

hi gvnarendra ,Amitt29
we seem in second wave of this final wave .
if true suggested levels of 13000+/14000 are on the cards. The problems is with long term counts . I do not switch to other counts until my preferred
count do not violate any of the elliott rule.
regards,
vinay

amitt29 · #76 8th May 2006, 11:50 PM

Hello Vinaybhai,
Is the nifty/sensex being in primary 3rd wave and intermediate 5th having something to do with declining volumes but advancing index.That is both r acting as couple to extend the markets.And BTW do u agree that the 3rd of the 5th was an extension.As is the case that the fifth is an extension too.
But i must say ur posts have been quite an eye opener.
CAn u recommend some good readings on Elliot Wave.

ravi1967 · #77 9th May 2006, 09:05 AM

hai everybody, market rumors are that a 1000 to 1500 point downward correction is immenent in sensex. so pleae exit long calls and wait till month end. the reasons are inflation hike due to diesel price hike.
bye
ravi

joy_verma · #78 13th May 2006, 05:45 AM

Hi,

This week was the listing of mega issue of Reliance petroleum IPO . The issue provided the least returns to the subscribers compared to the other listings in recent past. Market immidiately started to sell after the listing. Then came the government intervention on cement prices which led the cement sector stocks to nose dive. Well the writing is on the wall . This extended run will continue if the all time highs of 12670 are exceeded in the coming week . Then that will mean wave v (circled) is subdividing further and the high of 12670 will be labeled as wave (i) of wave v (circled). If however , the recent high is not takenout and markets goes below 12000 mark that will mean we are in for a corrective run. So the boundary line is marked on the sensex. On the hourly chart indicators are reaching oversold levels. That means that a bounce is likely on monday or tuesday. I will see if this sustains or not. A move past recent highs will mean short term trading oppurtunities will be there for next 3-4 weeks. Otherwise have a look at your long positions.
Regards,
vinay

Czar · #79 19th May 2006, 09:44 AM

Vinayji your analysis is most awaited...

traderindia · #80 19th May 2006, 08:17 PM

hi everyone
please tell from where can one get detailed information/ tutorial about using the elliot wave ?

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