Elliottwave count for SENSEX

hello vinay,
Really a great analysis given by you.I use very short term elliot counts to track the market.In my openion an orthodox top was created at the (iii) wave high.since I donot have have nifty intraday chart, I am attaching a nifty fut chart and in my opinion 3420-3430 would be crucial.Would welcome your opinion.

regards,
gvnarendra.

Attached Images

nifty fut.png (32.2 KB, 19 views)

Hi Gvnarendra,
I think your small c (black) should be a 5 wave structure. As
C wave can only be an impulse or an ending diagonal not a three wave
abc. Just my thoughts. though your views are similar to mine with a
different style of counting. and also see my 60 minute chart.
thanks,
vinay

Attached Images

60minsensex15apr06.PNG (30.7 KB, 28 views)

hello vinay,

I am truely amazed at the accuracy of your prediction. I actually thought that a flat would develop but the failure of alternation that you had mentioned in one of your previous posts came true. In my opinion the wave iii of wave (v) that you had mentioned in your previou post might have got extended(again failing to make alternation in its internal counts).So todays high have ended the wave iii and now is in wave iv correction.The alternation, that is,a flat formation of wave iv, would occur or not has to be seen. This chart would give a clearer picture.

regards,
gvnarendra.

Attached Images

nifty fut.png (22.8 KB, 43 views)

hi gvnarendra,
Thanks mate. Moreover your chart looks spot on. Good
going. Will analyse the market action after fridays action.
Regards,
vinay

Hi,

STOCK MARKET:
Another action packed week , as sensex scales 12000. The wave pattern suggest contiuation of the short term trend if the recent high of 12102 is crossed. That will mean sensex entering a small wave thee of wave (v) of iii (circled). This will also mean that sensex will remain in bullish short term mode. On the downside if sensex fails to cross 12102 ,that will mean that wave (v) of wave iii (circled) has finished and sensex in that event will enter into side ways to down corrective mode in the short term . So watch the recent high of 12102 for your trading purpose.
COMMODITY INDEX:
wave analysis of crb index suggests that minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) is in progress and in the short term index is in final subdivisions of wave (iii).Minor wave 3 is far from over and mood in commodity market is bullish as I had indicated in a recent post.

CRUDE OIL :
I have made a slight adjustment to my recent wave count after analysing the crude chart. In the past analysis I had indicated that a move above 68 will change the count to more bullish alternate . As crude breached that mark I have counted wave (4) finished in march as a triangle and we are in wave (5) of primary wave three. The wave analysis suggest Crude oil is a good market to trade as a level of $ 85-95 is not immpossible. Should this dampen sentiment in the equity market ? Happy trading week to you all.
Regards,
vinay

hi
The last week was full of volatility.The markets had huge swing on both
sides. The trend was mostly down. And to the surprise of many the
eventful day of friday sensex closed in the green.
It was said last week that 11102 was the crucial mark to cross and sensex
failed to cross this. on the other hand nifty registered a new high.
The action of last week has put sensex at a very crucial juncture.
If the wave analysis is correct sensex has finished minute wave iv (circled) then we are nearing a flash point in the weeks ahead as the last
wave since 7556 levels has started. It remains to be seen whether this
last wave v(circled) subdivides or not. As far as tergets for this last wave
are concerned the minimum distance to be covered by this wave is previous
high of 11102 which is close to current levels. Then again as wave iii (circled) was an extended affair I expect wave v (circled) to be equal to
wave i (circled) in price and time. This will mean this wave ending at around
13132. And another price target for minute wave v (circled) points to a level
of 14093.6 a .618 ratio of distance of i--iii. So my sense is that we are headed higher to complete the wave action since the begining of this rally from 7656.
Also, as calling tops is a dicey affair, to keep on the right side of the rally I have been countinuously updating my alternate wave counts. As there may be many flaws in an analysts analysis the proper way is to keep all probabilities upto date. In this quest for correct interpretation, I have reviewed my longterm wave picture and short term alternate counts.
I will post them as and when they become relevent or present prefferred
counts are invalidated . That is because in my view we are reaching a potential top or will be there soon. As risk at these levels is far greater then rewards a sudden turn in trend could be very painful. so these are times
to excercise caution because people have earned so much money that they have become complacent as money making from the markets seems so easy. There is a saying that every Tom, and Harry become brainy in a bullmarket. This cautionary tone certainly do not mean that this bullmarket will be over tommorow morning. we may goup to 13000 or to 14000 but a
corrective phase has to occur whether in the form of short term top or a
prolonged correction , a sideways consolidation or a steep fall.
Remember at the end of the day we all discuss probabilities and nothing
else.
Regards,
vinay

Attached Images

SENSEX29apr06 daily.gif (10.7 KB, 27 views)

hello vinay,

That was very nicely explained.That was exactly the same count I ended up with.According to me, the 5th wave of wave C of your wave iv(circled) got truncated which suggest that your wave v(circled) may be on its way towards reaching equality with your wave i(circled) or higher.To support this I heard a rumour on 28th morning around 12pm that the LIC people are investing about 20000cr in the stock market.This is true or not I donot know.If it is,we can be a bit bullish right now. If the wave v(circled) surpasses the previous high the upper trendline in my attached chart may act as a strong resistance.

regards,
gvnarendra.

Attached Images

nifty fut.png (35.7 KB, 31 views)

hi gvnarendra,
thanks for input. thats correct. your uppertrendline has
to offer resistance to nifty. In my view rumours and news are
of little importance to a wave analyst as markets are governed by
something else and wave form is important . The current rally has
encompassed more than 4400 points while previous legs were 2704,
and 2669 points , which makes this leg formidable. I have been watching
this bullmarket right from its inception (2001)and this is for the first time
that such a blowoff has occurred. Certainly, amazing !! And these are
times to tighten the stop losses and be cautious.
vinay

Very true,my friend...........this trend hasn't cracked wide open ,and no reason to flee as yet.But this is a time to tighten stop losses and be cautious.

Always look fwd to your Wave Analysis........Great stuff!

Saint

hi saint,
True, no reason to flee yet as we may see higher levels but
a wise husband is he who prepares his wife for hardtimes
vinay