Elliottwave count for SENSEX

Hi kaka,
Thanks. Yeah, picture is now clear as the 11071 level is takenout.
As minimum requirement for wave iii is met. This has invalidated
my earlier count and I will have to switch to this bullish alternate
now.
Regards,
vinay

Hi,
Sensex movement was on expected lines . A bullish trend prevailed in the market and sensex moved closer to the 11620 mark which is wave equality target of a small degree fifth wave with small degree first wave as the wave three of similar degree was an extended affair. I expect sensex moving higher in the coming week with a word of caution that after moving closer to the above mentioned target sensex is likely to enter a corrective phase as short term wave pattern on the daily chart looks toppish. After finishing this wave up sensex should retrace towards 11000 mark and then resume the uptrend.
Regards,
vinay

Attached Images

sensex 60 min1apr06.PNG (23.0 KB, 33 views)

Hi,
What a week of trading we had ! First a huge rally to dizzy heights and then a huge
intraday decline. The decline almost matched that of may 2004,with a difference
that it was smaller in percentage terms as Sensex is at a level which is more than
double that of may 2004. Otherwise trading would have been halted as was done
on that panic day of may 17,2004. That day it was a wave 4 decline and today
again a wave 4 decline albit, of a smaller degree wave 4 .
Last week I had a wave equality target of 10620 , a level where wave v of (iii)
equaled wave i of (iii). This, target was not only achieved but exceeded by this
huge rally. This is a case of typical throw-over in Elliott terminology . A throw-
over occurs when fifth wave within a parallel channel or in a converging line of
diagonal triangle , approaches upper trendline and peneterate it with heavy volume.
Usually it is a temporary burst and market reverses back below the line of the channel
Thus , I see some more downside correction . This is also coupled with two more
considerations of channel target for wave (iv) and guideline of previous fourth wave retracement of one lower degree , points to further weakness in the coming
Week. Though this is a bullmarket and fibbonacci retracements are shallow in powerful
uptrends. Even then a meagre 23.6% retracement of previous wave (iii) points to 11280
if not lower.
Is the rally since 7656 over ? I think not. There is still upside left. The immediate short term upside target on completion of this short correction is previous high of 11930 because that will be the minimum requirement for minute wave iii (circled). Personally I like , wave form and not wave targets because that way I can follow the wave rules strictly as I see wave structure developing . So I think form is more important than ratios.
After finishing this upwave we will see minute wave iv (circled) correction and then
the minute wave v (circled) , the last wave of the progressive upwaves unfolding. That
should complete the wave advance from 7656 . Ofcourse this will happen if , my wave
analysis is correct.
Regards,
vinay

Attached Images

	SENSEX 7apr06 1.gif (13.5 KB, 23 views)
	SENSEX 7apr06 2.gif (11.9 KB, 17 views)
	SENSEX 7apr06 3.gif (11.9 KB, 25 views)

Hats off to you sir.I have been following ur posts for a few days now and have been besotted with it.
Just today browsing thru this elite forum i came across a post by an American Mr.Caldaro who has posted his findings.
He seems to match ur results too.
Can u throw some light on this matter.Because very rarely we have two Elliot wave theorists sharing same views.(Take this as a joke).
Have a good Weekend.

Good effort

keep up d good job...........

all d best

Hi Amitt29,
Thanks.Tony caldaro is a fine elliottician.He has been awarded
Technician of the year award before and has been analysing markets since
early 1980's. It was in fact me, who prompted him to analyse bse sensex,
and include it in his long list of markets he track. We have exchanged ideas
about wave analysis a couple of times about sensex. He has developed a slightly different way of analysing elliottwave which he calls, "objective elliott
wave". He also offers one to one lessons on his proprietry objective elliott wave. But the cost is bit on the higher side for us.
Regarding, similarity about
wave count on sensex. For short term, we agreed that sensex was looking
toppish and in fact it was and it turned direction. On longer time frame we
have slightly different views. Tony's view is that , sensex has finished wave
3 of V and so wave 4 and 5 are still to go.He do not talk about any alternate
wave count . My position is that either we are in the last wave 5th of 5th that is the last wave of the whole rise since 2001. Or as an alternate wave
count we are in wave 3rd of 3rd of last wave 5. The differece crops up due
to the relative wave position or count of nse nifty. I had discussed this problem in detail on my blog " the problem wave count".
http://spaces.msn.com/sensex-nifty/
Tony caldarow's blog link is
http://spaces.msn.com/caldaroEW/
Regards,
vinay

Hi Gold Ranjit,
Thanks for encouraging words.
Regards,
vinay

Hi,
This weekend was shortened by the holidays . Trading occurred for only three days.
Monday saw markets settling for a little bounce after last Friday’s fall. People thought
markets might recoup the Friday’s losses as in recent past markets had bounced back
after falling one or two trading sessions. But it was not to be that way and markets
kept sliding for the remaining trading days. Last week we had a few targets on
the downside. They were achieved one after another . It was satisfying to see
market correcting in a text book manner. If we leave aside technicalities , our
bigger picture of market correcting to 11000 mark , visualized in recent posts was
bang on the target. Market slide was stemmed at 11008 and subsequently markets
retraced some of the fall to close with a weekly loss of over 3% . Now whether
this correction is over or is it only the first leg of the whole correction will be apparent
after a couple trading sessions . A peculiar phenomenon has been lack of alternations
in the corrective waves since we entered into uptrend post 7656 . This is unusual and
one reason for this might be very short and swift corrections that lasted only a two or
three trading sessions. Over all my sense is that we will see new highs once this
correction is over. This is in conrast to the views being expressed by quite a few experts, brokerages and media channels. Let us see which way the wind blows.
Happy trading .
Regards,
vinay

Hi!

My view is that with infosys number coming disappointed, I feel market will be nervous a lot on Monday. If we break 3290, I think we can see a big fall. Moreover for sometime, I do not see any trigger for market making new highs, moreover I think market will see some more correction as no upside triggers are left. Picture will be quite confusing if level of 3290 on Nifty is not broken and we get more selling at upper side level with good volume, indicating distribution and moreover if level is not broken then we will have to see a fight between bulls and bears again with bears having upper hand with no real trigger to take market upside. As in TA it is all if's and but's until it happens. Comments are appreciated

Hi Gandharvashu,
Agree with you that levels of 3290 on nifty and 11008
on sensex are crucial as violation of these levels will push markets
down. However, on hourly charts I see indices have traced out a zigzag
(5,3,5) pattern for this correction from 11931 level. Either it is a completed
fourth wave or first leg a of abc correction. if it is a leg of small fourth
wave then we should be heading up to complete b leg (a three wave rise)
zigzag (5,3,5) and subsequently fall in final wave c which will be an
impusive 5 wave decline to current low of 11008 or slightly below this level. Alternatly, if the recent low was a completed wave (iv) then again we
should see a rise in the form of 5 waves to atleast recent highs of 11931
So the levels to watch on upside are 3456 on nifty and 11582 on sensex
and of course recent lows on downside. As far as infy results are concerned I think these are temporary phenomena as overall market direction
is measured in terms of collective or herd mental frame work of trading
community or you call it social mood of masses. Happy trading week and
thanks for contributing .
Regards,
vinay