Elliottwave count for SENSEX

The figure of 11008 should be read as 11071 .
Regards,
vinay

Past week sensex gained 95 points (0.88%) while nifty gained 50 points (1.58%) Therefore nifty outperformed sensex. In sectoral indices cnx IT outperformed Bank Nifty . Both these sectoral indices have given a breakout. wave counts have not gone any change and are developing nicely as anticipated. In the week ahead we may see slight pullback before resumption of the uptrend. CNX MIDCAP: This week I am including cnx midcap index for wave analysis as as special index. In contrast to sensex nifty this index has shown very clear wave pattern. As you can see minor wave 5 is nicely subdividing and has finished four minute waves. Here the interesting thing to see is that minute wave i (circled) and minute wave iii (circled) are almost of equal length of about 600 points . And if guideline of extension is applied then minute wave v (circled) should extend. Another important insight that we may get from this index is the amazing strength that this index is showing vis a vis the major indices sensex and nifty. Generally , when major indices enter fifth waves Mid cap index and mid cap stocks should start declining after forming major tops. But, Cnx midcap is racing neck to neck with the major indices sensex and nifty. This is another indication of extension of entire rise from 6118 on sensex in the form of minor wave 3 extension.
REGARDS,
VINAY

Attached Images

CNXMIDCAP 17MARCH06.gif (12.1 KB, 26 views)

hi verma....
nice work... nice counts and analysis...we count on you
kepp it up...

thanks rbs naidu
regards,
vinay

Excellent job. It's very enligtening for an amateur like me. Thanks & pls keep up this good work.

Hi ,
Here is an elliott wave longterm count from one of elliottician of the
elliottwave.com . The only difference b/w this count and the longterm
count posted by me on this forum is that of labeling of wave 3. Tom
Denhem is showing a Large wave finishing at 1990-91 Top. while wave
wave 4 at 2001 bottom. I disagree with his lableing of wave 3 because
this puts his wave 2 and wave 4 out of proportion by a wide margin and
do not fit in the wave proportionality or right look for the wave analyst.
Look at his wave 2 and large wave 4 . His wave 2 is so small and lasts
for few months while his wave four is too large and lasts for about 10
years. This is unusual and not acceptable for the waves of same degree
So the correct wave 3 position is the high of 2000. By labeling this wave
at 2000 high a near wave symmetry is found and this puts wavecount
much more precisely. Please donot confuse with Tom Denhem's wave
lables 1,2,3,4 and my wave lables I,II,III,IV. He has put lables just to
show them and also talks of very large waves which are of cycle
degree.
He is talking about sensex in large fifth wave and after
completion of which sensex should fall to 4600 to 2600 levels. His contention is correct because after completion of five primary waves of this large cycle
fifth wave market should drop to the area of previous large fourth cycle degree wave. So his large fourth wave area is 4600- 2600 while my fourth
wave area is 6150- 2600. 4600 is his wave 3 top while my top occured at
6150. That dose not mean that we are going to fall to these levels soon
on the completion of this on going rally. This will happen when we complete
five primary waves of this complete bullmarket which should last for 10-15
years or more. Remember we are in the first primary wave of this cycle wave
five. And we have four more primary waves to go. We will ofcourse correct
in primary wave two but the maximum area of corection will be 6000 and
prefferably around 8000 when we complete this on going first primary wave.
Ps. Thanks oldmirage for kind words.
Regards http://www.elliottwave.com/subscribers/
vinay

you will have to register at elliottwave.com website to see the wave count
It will take a few minutes but it is free.
Regards,
vinay

hi baron,
6300 bottom is possible once this whole impulse gets over.
In elliott if fifth wave extends the base of wave 2 of that extended
wave is the possible target of the ensuing correction. In the case
of sensex base of wave 2 of extending wave 5 is 6118. so sensex
should idrally correct to this level or your level of 6300. Also if you
take in to consideration fibonacci ratios of the entire rise from 2001
these also point to correction to these levels. thanks for your comments.
regards,
vinay

In the week goneby I had mentioned the possibility of a pullback and then the resumption of uptrend in the markets. Indices did pullback till thursday and reversed direction on friday to close an all time high of 10950. I suppose we will continue this uptrend in the coming week and see all time highs once again. As mentioned elsewhere, I had an oppurtunity to see the Elliottwave International's (of Bob prechter) longterm wave count of Sensex. Barring some disagreement about the ending of wave Three wave action after end 2001 has no differeces. EWI is advocating hold on Indian Market and advising not to short this market yet. That is the right strategy because if the peviouse all time high is takenout sensex is likely to move to 10600 levels. CRUDE OIL: This week's guest analysis is of Crude oil. Crude is currently correcting in wave (4). This correction has consumed almost seven months so far has no signs of ending. The best possible scenario for this wave (4) correction is that of a developing triangle,though other possibilities of complex correction may also be present. If coorect this wave (4) correction should end below 60 in the form of final wave E. Currently we are witnessing wave D of the triangle Any push above the levels of 67-68 will negate the triangular development. Another possibility is that of wave B triangle instead of wave (4) triangle which can prolong the correction even further and set the stage for a deeper than expected corrective wave (4).
Regards,
vinay

Attached Images

	SENSEX daily 24mar06.gif (13.5 KB, 23 views)
	crude24march06daily.gif (19.6 KB, 11 views)

great work vinay

the addition of wave picture ahead makes things much clearer

regards