Elliottwave count for SENSEX

psamu · #31 4th February 2006, 01:18 PM

hello verma,

Thanks for the reply
and for your great counts.

Saint · #32 4th February 2006, 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joy_verma

hi psamu,
Here is my long term monthly chart of sensex. you can see most
of notation in it. I am not giving any analysis on this long term count,for
now but hope to contribute on this in future. If, you know elliott theory
you can analyse and understand this chart easily .
regards,
vinay

Very nice,Vinay.........keep the Elliotician wisdom flowing.Great stuff!

Thanks,
Saint

joy_verma · #33 5th February 2006, 08:47 AM

thanks saint for acknowledging my work.
regards
vinay

joy_verma · #34 18th February 2006, 07:57 AM

Nothing much happened in the past week. After achieving a high of 10,195 sensex gave back what it achived and ended the week in negative territory. It also plunged below the psychological mark of 10000 to close at 9981, a loss of 129 points. In elliott wave terms this could be the end of minute wave iii (circled) technically as there is no overlap of the dividing waves. This is less bullish interpretation of sensex . If correct we have entered minute wave iv (circled) targeting anything between 9994 - 9714 to finish off this wave. On a more bullish note the alternate count pionts to the extension of minute wave iii (circled) as supposed wave three is much smaller as compared to wave one. But till the wave picture do not clear I would go with my preffered count and mark it the end of wave iii (circled).
Regards,
vinay
http://spaces.msn.com/sensex-nifty/

joy_verma · #35 25th February 2006, 10:32 PM

The market action of the past week saw yet another high of 10,304 on sensex. This bullmarket is refusing to correct,Does it mean that stocks will defy gravity for ever? Are there any topping signs ? Well if my preferred count plays as it should we have entered fifth and final minute wave with a maximum Target of 11071. On the daily chart this minor wave5 has so far shown beautiful clearcut subdivisions beyond 11071 minute wave v (circled) will become longer than minute wave iii(circled) which will violate the rules of elliottwave principle.Since minute wave i (circled) is already longer than minute wave iii (circled), fifth minute wave can not be longer than third minute wave. I am posting an alternate count as well . In this you can see third minute wave extending which can have bullish implications but so far as my preffered wave count hold I see no reason to explore the alternate count in detail . also see my blog space for more.
Regards,
vinay

http://spaces.msn.com/sensex-nifty/

AMITBE · #36 26th February 2006, 12:45 AM

Hi Vinay,
Been following this thread from the start.
There's much rigour of research and learning, and scientific method about your analysis. Besides of course the sense of conviction in your own work.
Way to go, and look forward to more.
Amit.

joy_verma · #37 26th February 2006, 07:56 AM

Hi Amit,
Thanks for appreciation. I love markets and made them a bigger
part of life. As you can better explain than me analysis/learning is a
countinous ,on going process in a trader's life. I regularly visit your
Threads. They are wonderful threads keep going.
Regards,
vinay

joy_verma · #38 4th March 2006, 07:07 PM

Sensex surged on expected note.The level of 10706 appears subminute wave (iii) of minute wave v(circled)
as per my preferred wave count. I was among very few wave analysts who made a bullish case for
Indian stock market. others including your Famed business line analyst we expecting a downtrend
in nifty and sensex. I had asserted that This count of mine shows a maximum target of 11071. I
still stick to this level as I have said that a move past this mark will be an extension of current
rally on sensex.Though this is my least bullish case for sensex as I have been repeatedly making
in the past posts, many signals are emanating on the charts that portrays much higher levels.
These will come in to play if my present targets are met and surpassed.But a few warning signs
are also in the offing which says a correction might be round the corner.Whether this correction
proves yet another dip or a major turning point will be clear in the next one week or two.
neverthless, we are nearing a very very crucial juncture/ turning point. So trade cautiously.
Regards,
vinay

joy_verma · #39 12th March 2006, 10:23 AM

Markets were volatile in the past week but eventually succeeded in making
higher ending. Though my least bullish count is still intact momentum studies
have already rejected this count as Rsi has gone to the highest level on
march 6,2006. This shows that minute wave iii has not ended yet. This shows that sensex should surge to much higher levels than I was expecting.
This also makes my prefferred count suspect . Therefore I will have to revise
my counts and shift to more bullish alternates. happy trading to you all.
Regards,
vinay

joy_verma · #40 15th March 2006, 06:04 PM

SHORT TERM ANALYSIS :The action of week so far has shown that markets surged at the open and sold off therafter to close lower. Sensex stopped just under 11900 and went lower. My orginal short term wave count has comleted five waves and this count is still not comletely rejected because if sensex fails to move past 11008 this count will hold otherwise rejected. My other count which I am posting along with the original is on the verge of becoming the preffered count if sensex posts a new high after the trading resume tommorow.As indicated in earlier posts momentum studies are favouring this count now.
MIDTERM ANALYSIS: In the medium term this MINOR WAVE 5 is reaching the point of resolution. Only waves left are minute wave iv (circled) and minute wave v (circled) If the favoured count is correct this will mean that the 5 year old bull market is close to completion. However,as an alternate count if after the impending selloff indices surge to new highs that will mark the extension of the MINOR WAVE3 . In that case sensex will be in uber bullish mood and this bull market will go on for months and probably to the end of this year before a meaningful top is formed.
I have given wave analysis for commodity research bureau Index (CRB INDEX) ON MY BLOG . Those interested may visit the link below for more.
http://spaces.msn.com/sensex-nifty/
Regards,
vinay

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