Elliottwave count for SENSEX

joy_verma · #21 7th January 2006, 09:33 AM

you would like to see my blog space on msn for further wave analysis for
sensex
http://spaces.msn.com/members/sensex-nifty/

joy_verma · #22 13th January 2006, 08:00 PM

hi,
Last week I had commented that sensex was very near to completing a small wave and subsequently prone to corrective formation. I had given a Target of 9680 -9867 for the very short term top. Accordingly, sensex hit a high of 9689.68 before succumbing to corrective swing. Sensex hit a low of 9303 and bounced a little. This is subminutte wave (ii) . I dont have
any evidence of completion of this small degree wave yet. In most probable case the low of 9303.71 can be termed as wave a of (ii) and the action thereafter is probably wave b of (ii) and wave cof (ii) still unfolding. If this count is correct we might see wave c going below 9303 level to complete the wave c and also the wave (ii). This action should unfold early next week.
The likely targets for wave c of (ii) are 9233 and 9086. On the bullish side, if sensex moves up without violating the 9303.71 level will mean that wave (ii) was completed at this recent low and we are already in wave (iii). Anyhow, I do not see much downside on sensex-nifty charts now and these indices should resume the uptrend any time next week.
Regards,
vinay
http://spaces.msn.com/members/sensex-nifty/

joy_verma · #23 19th January 2006, 02:41 PM

hi,
Sensex correction seems to have ended right in the indicated level of 9233-9086 band, 9158 being the exact low. Expect good times ahead in terms
of elliottwave analysis. Traders may go long within wave (iii) as this will be an
impulse structure, with a stop at wave (ii) low which is unlikely to be tested
though.
regards,
vinay

joy_verma · #24 30th January 2006, 07:13 PM

Todays high of 9945.19 looks like completion of wave iii of wave (iii). Now wave (iii) has surpassed wave equality target with wave (i). Wave (iii) has
still an upside target of about 10240 in normal fibonacci ratio projection because two more small waves namely wave iv and wave v are still pending to
complete the internal structure of wave (iii). The target of 10240 can be exceeded if wave v becomes extended or it could be unachieved if wave v becomes truncated. Therefore, one can see how difficuilt it becomes,at times, to deciphere the intricate wave relationships. That is why, elliottwave
analysis is not an easier method of analysing the markets, but on the otherside the rewards are huge and satisfying and, in proportion to the hardwork and proper application of the principles of wave theory.
Regards,
vinay

ramtrade · #25 31st January 2006, 12:03 AM

Hi Joy,

Can you give your wave count on Arvind Mills & IndSwift Labs...?

joy_verma · #26 31st January 2006, 09:10 AM

hi Ramtrade,
No I donot do elliottwave analysis on individual scrips. I apply
Technical analysis for individual shares. And both arvind and
indswift lab are interestingly poised on the charts.
Regards,
vinay

joy_verma · #27 3rd February 2006, 04:50 PM

this week sensex went so close to scale the psychological 10000 mark, but
turned down without scaling this mark. In my last analysis I had said That wave (i) had attained equality with supposed wave (iii) and next target for
wave (iii) was 10240. At this level the supposed wave (iii) would be 161.8 %
of wave (i), which is a fibonacci target for wave (iii) vis a vis wave (i).
Sensex turned from 9993.92 level and has touched a low of 9713.51.
So, a logical question arises in mind whether Wave (iii) has ended at 9993.92
or not. The answer is simple, Sensex has to stay abobe 9689,the wave (i)
high because as per elliott rules wave (iv) cannot overlap wave (i). If however, sensex breaches this level on the downside and the turns up to
attain newhighs That will mean that wave (iii) has not ended and an extension of wave (iii) is underway. If this probability emerges, that will
impart sensex even more bullishness.That will also mean that what we have
labeled as wave (iii) is only wave i of (iii). On the down side if sensex goes
below 9158, which ofcourse is some distance away, will negate my bullish
interpretation of sensex and I will have to rework my count.

psamu · #28 3rd February 2006, 08:11 PM

hello Joy,

Your analysis is very interesting and appears sound.
In the recent chart , you have used same symbols
( i ), ( ii ) ... for two waves. So the chart is not
clear to me and appears confusing. For the counts,
can you please use different symbols like:

1,2,3,4,5
(1),(2),(3),(4),(5)
I,II,III,IV,V
i,ii,iii,iv,v
p,q,r,s,t
P,Q,R,S,T

Thank you very much for this thread and
for your timely analysis.

joy_verma · #29 4th February 2006, 09:59 AM

hi,
If you go through my posts carefully,you will notice all the notations you
have given in your post. I am using (i) (ii), (iii) (iv) and i, ii because I
am suspecting sensex in wave (iii) or i of wave iii (circled) of minor wave
5 of intermediate wave (5) of primary wave 1 (circled). In otherwords,
we are in fifth wave of fifth which is a terminal/ final wave of the whole
uptrend since 2001. When this final fifth wave is completed we will also
finish first primary wave,which means first bull leg of the whole expectd
long term bull market. Then we will start the first bear leg and then we
will see all your other letter notations viz (A)(B)(C),ABC,(a)(b)(c),abc,
which denote different wave degrees,viz, intermediate , minor, minuttee
subminuttee etc., This is quite a jargon for the general reader or the
uninitiated.
regards,
vinay

joy_verma · #30 4th February 2006, 10:36 AM

hi psamu,
Here is my long term monthly chart of sensex. you can see most
of notation in it. I am not giving any analysis on this long term count,for
now but hope to contribute on this in future. If, you know elliott theory
you can analyse and understand this chart easily .
regards,
vinay

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