Elliottwave count for SENSEX

Dear ToxicExp,

I can see your confusion.

When in doubt stick to the Fundamentals my friend. As long as the Fundamentals are OK Technical corrections (that'll keep happening) can't do much harm.
Your holdings like L&T, PunjLloyd are great Don't do any panic selling.
The 3rd qtr results will also be good. Problems can only start in 4th qtr or (more likely) 1st qtr of FY 07-08.
Then also the US slowdown & depreciating dollar etc will only affect the export oriented sectors. Stks like L&T & PL are more of a domestic story. So they won't be affected by this factor. (And most of these Const/Cap. Goods companies have order book running into the next 3 yrs or more).
The higher base effect may manifest itself across sectors though but even that won't make the FIIs desert Indian mkts en-masse at its very onset. The lower EPS growth will make valuations expensive but even there we have quite a bit of headroom as of now - enough to tide over 07 perhaps.

Ellioticians seldom agree on their wave counts (that's why never took much interest in EWT - too subjective & open to all kinds of convenient interpretations) And now you also have The Principle of Extraction to contend with (means more differences!) For the latter see http://content.icicidirect.com/ULFil...6121114450.asp
(This is a weekly analysis by Vivek Patil one of the best in the EWT game).

Don't worry be happy There's no reason to sell out blue chips yet. Even quality midcaps are doing well.
Keep a watch on the mkt devil, but don't be cowed by it.
Follow Saint's simple principles. Keep your SLs in place & sleep peacefully at night.
If you get stopped out buy again at lower levels if you still have faith in the Company's performance.

Warm Regards,
Kalyan.

P.S. : The Bull Cycle we are in will last at least another decade [lasted 2 decades in US, UK, Japan, Asean, China etc when these economies were coming of age It's India's turn now (unless our goddamned politicians mess things up real bad)] It will be punctuated by a few Bear phases every 3-4 years but these will look insignificant in hindsight compared to the great bull run!
That is what the FIIs are after - the long term booty. If they can put in their money then what are we afraid of? It's our markets after all!!

dear winston
Saw your incredible charts
what if the portion you have marked is not a flat?
Looking at the charts with a microscope is wrong
Your dreams can go for a song
Step back a pace or two
just as livermore would have you to do
Do'nt you see the big wave "x" after the a-b-c
And the rounding top intermediatee???
things may be clear in a week or two
And match fib count of 34 weeks true

hi jatayo,
i agree with your view that too much microscope is dangerous for elliot waves.
but dear, on the broder front , dont you inspect the corrective wave iv of wave 5 of final 5 in process!

tell me wht you will expect after the 5 of final 5 is complete?????????????



thanxs
winston

That was great Mr Jatayoo ... lyrical optimism! ... lol

jatayo,

and i did not say that 4th corrective will be flat only. there are many possibilities presented , plz go through them, as market advances we could narrow the possibilities.

1 of the beginning 6! ... lol ...

great humour

Great Posts!

Regards,
Kalyan.

nice article on icicidirect! 20000 for sensex huh?

Why you don't believe it? I do. Only the Fundamentals need to hold.
We'll have an intermediate bear phase though More due to global factors But i'm sure it won't be a prolonged one.

I hope if a retracement occurs from current levels it doesn't break 13300 which seems a very important level in Mr. Patil's analysis.

This century will be different from the last one. It will witness the rise of the developing countries. They will also constitute the world's leading trade blocks. (There will be a paradigm shift in global trade & economics) Bull mkts in these countries rising from a much smaller base will be much longer than the ones hitherto seen in more developed countries. Old models won't work.


Regards,
Kalyan.

P.S. : Developing countries will also have the advantage of money flowing in from richer countries (where the economies will now stagnate or decline) + their own rising investment capacities. (So the old valuations may also start looking conservative). This is also where the world's largest reserves of natural resources lie. They will have the demographic advantage of a younger population. Dependence on developed countries for markets will also reduce as new trade blocks emerge amongst the developing countries themselves.
All this will have to show up on those charts, sooner or later.