Elliottwave count for SENSEX

ramakrishnaiah · #**151** 27th November 2006, 03:09 PM

Tony,

There is a difference of openion among Experts whether this is a fifth wave for sensex or a B wave which is extending till 1.382 of previous highs (14140) target..

I know you are projecting that it is fifth of fifth.. Have you thought about this being B wave?..

Parv · #**152** 27th November 2006, 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by caldaroEW

Hi!

I hope you are right!
I do not like bear markets.
But I need to pass along what my analysis is projecting.
The market can naturally, extend. But until that has a high probability.
Caution, at these levels, is advised.

best regards,

tony

Hi Tony
Almost all the Ellioticians are advising caution. I'm wondering whether only Ellioticians have sold all their stocks and sitting in cash expecting a doomsday very shortly

Even i'm expecting a correction though i'm not an elliotician

Regards
Parv

amitt29 · #**153** 27th November 2006, 06:43 PM

Hi,
Not to hijack this topic but what is the basis of such Experts labelling this as a wave B instead of Impulse.
Because
1)A sharp correction never makes a new high.
2)Only a B wave of Irregular ABC can make a new high.Internal count being 335,subject to abc(down in may june fall) for first 3,abc(UP from 2600 till now) for second three,and Normal C(full blown down)which occurs at end of Bull markets(which i assume all those experts also believe not yet over).And btw the internal count of Irregular is one zig zag down(535)one mixed B wave or orthodox B and Normal C.
You can clearly see on daily that a zigzag A wave was the only possible alternate count.

I think Tony's count is correct.
Because of the subjectivity of Orthodox EW,ppl can curve fit any count.

Regards
Amit.

winstonn · #**154** 27th November 2006, 07:25 PM

HI ALL GUYS THERe,

the recent wave is really confusing one!!!
if this recent rally is 3rd extention of primary wave 5 then the sensex should cross minimum 15044.
there will be minor correction in between.

however, any failure of this wave not to cross the above target could highly increase the chances of this rally to be wave B of 4th corrective wave and thus the correction could be sharp and dirty! driving all weak hands out of market!!!

have you all observed on daily charts one important thing! if we suspect this as 3rd extension of primary wave 5, then see the structure of 1st wave which began from lows of 8799. the 3rd sub wave in wave 1 is less than subwave 1 and 5 which indicates that so called wave 1 is not wave one and therefore 3rd extension of wave 5 is in doubt!

conclusion: wait for markets to unfold still further.!

regards,
winston

caldaroEW · #**155** 28th November 2006, 04:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ramakrishnaiah

Tony,

There is a difference of openion among Experts whether this is a fifth wave for sensex or a B wave which is extending till 1.382 of previous highs (14140) target..

I know you are projecting that it is fifth of fifth.. Have you thought about this being B wave?..

Hi!

It looks like five waves up from the lows to me.
Therefore I haven't considered it a B wave, but an impulse wave.
Europe and the US were sold heavily today.
Guess we will know for certain soon enough.
best of luck!

tony

caldaroEW · #**156** 10th December 2006, 03:04 AM

Hi Guys!

Congrats on 14,000! A very impressive bull market.
As we are beginning to wonder in the states ... will these markets ever come down? Be careful when the Sensex does turn over.

caldaroEW · #**157** 14th December 2006, 11:07 AM

Hi!

Not good news.
Based upon my OEW analysis there is a high probability that the bull market is over. As you know, when the market sold off hard in the spring, I kept stating that it was only a correction. And, another advance would take the Sensex to all time new highs. 14,000 was even beyond my expectations at the time.
I was hoping that this last advance would subdivide, extending the bull market in time. But it did not! It rallied straight up 60% in six months. An unsustainable advance, and typical of a blowoff top.
At a bull market top, there is usually a fundamental shift that occurs: last friday's credit tightening might be enough to drain the excess liquidity which has probably been driving this market higher.
Hopefully, I'm wrong and the bull market will extend. But at this point that's only a possibility. Caution, and protecting profits, should be foremost on investor's agenda.

tony

Czar · #**158** 14th December 2006, 11:57 AM

noted your view but remember in (i think) oct you said market wont make a new top mostly... then it cracked & corrected the divergence... right so we have to wait & watch

caldaroEW · #**159** 14th December 2006, 04:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Czar

noted your view but remember in (i think) oct you said market wont make a new top mostly... then it cracked & corrected the divergence... right so we have to wait & watch

Hi!

I reviewed my comments. It must have been someone else.
I've continued to state to be cautious, but never stated a top was in.
50% of retracement of this first decline, thus far.

tony

toxicexpulsion · #**160** 14th December 2006, 07:07 PM

50% percent retracement of the fall has been achieved. lets see which direction it takes. I have a feeling that it may test the support levels again. I really hope im wrong. Some EW annalist say its the top of the bull market and some say it is the end of the end of b wave of primary wave 4... i am really getting confused. All i care is the bottom line growth is strong, exposure to equities in india is really low some around 3% which will be corrected to about 20% (domestic savings) and the indian economy is own a spectacular growth path with so much more potential. I am going to remain invested.

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