Elliottwave count for SENSEX

joy_verma · #91 11th June 2006, 12:51 PM

Hi Amit,
one possiblity I forgot to discuss was a wave B triangle .
this is quite possible if sensex/nifty donot make new lows.
Even in this case The final corrective wave C will still unfold
below the current lows of 9200.
vinay

amitt29 · #92 11th June 2006, 02:00 PM

With the Wave c count i completely agree with you.Do you feel that wave A was a 5 wave affair.

joy_verma · #93 11th June 2006, 03:36 PM

Hi amit,
Not clear yet. waiting for resolution of this count.
vinay

munchikana · #94 11th June 2006, 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joy_verma

But I will be sticking to the first scenario, which means a B wave rally followed by another five wave down wave C to complete this correction which began at 12671 levels.
vinay

Dear Vinay,
Can you please explain where do you see the top of this B wave rally for sensex and nifty. What is the time frame for this B wave rally? I am eagerly awaiting the elliot wave count posting from you on nifty and sensex which you have revised after discussions with Mr. Tom Denham.
Thanks in advance
Munchikana

joy_verma · #95 11th June 2006, 07:02 PM

hi Munchikana,
The wave picture is not that clear. but this correction
is far from done and should consume many more weeks. My revised
long term count has no significant changes except that earlier
I was showing sep2001 as base but now I label 2003 as base. I will
post the details later because I am working on the wave picture
post may 2004 as this is warranted after the revised outlook.
Regards
vinay

Czar · #96 18th June 2006, 12:09 AM

Vinay, do advice if any update on Mr. Elliot's waves

speculation / projection would also be helpful till clarity emerges. Thanks

joy_verma · #97 18th June 2006, 09:35 AM

Hi,
Last week I had mentioned the possibilty of one more downside push for sensex on daily charts to complete the five waves down. Sensex accordingly made a new low of 8799.01 and bounced back in style more than 1000 points in the last two days of the trading week . This new low now completes the five waves sequence from the top of 12671 meaning that a zig-zag formation is underway and we have just completed the a wave of this zig-zag . We are currently in the wave b of this formation . The maximum upside target for this wave is 11192 . After completion of this wave b the indices should traceout another down wave c to complete the zigzag and also this correction . On alternate count front the most likely scenario is that of a double zigzag correction from the top. Anyhow I see sensex again plunging below the recent lows of 8799 once the corrective bounce is over . The extent of this impending wave c can be worked out after the wave b is over but this wave will be related by fibonacci ratios to wave a . These can be anywhere from 61.8% to 161.8% of wave a.

I have analysed sensex for long term elliott wave picture on my blog those
interested may visit the link
http://sensex-nifty.spaces.msn.com/PersonalSpace.aspx

amitt29 · #98 18th June 2006, 11:56 AM

On an even alternate count the wave A may have been a flat,considering the time span.So wave B may develop into an inverted zig zag.If we have three days down and two days up next week, this may be a confirmation to my observation.

gvnarendra · #99 18th June 2006, 12:22 PM

hello vinay,

I am greatful to you for sharing the indepth knowledge of elliott wave principles on our indian market.I studied your long term wave count but i have some doubts.If possible please clear it out when ever you are free.

firstly,didn't the intermediate 4th wave of primary wave 3 start in 1992 which you have mentioned as 1991.

secondly, the internal counting of B wave in intermediate 4th wave correction from 1992-1998 satisfies motive wave structure though it can be forced to attain a double zig-zag structure.please explain this.

and lastly,if the wave which spanned from the end of jan 2005-mid may 2005 is the 1st wave of minor wave 3 ,how can it be divided into a motive wave as it completely satisfies a zig-zag structure.if not how can the internal counting of minor wave 3 can be done.

hope I don't bother you.

thanking you,
gvnarendra

I am showing these doubts on this chart

joy_verma · #**100** 18th June 2006, 01:55 PM

hi gvn,
correct . it's 1992 not 1991. with regard to your wave B query here
is what Tom denham wrote to me :

''Thank you for sharing the view of the RBI Share Index. it seems to me that our overall wave counts are comparable. I would have counted the September 1994 top of the RBI as a completed fifth wave at the time, but in light of later developments in the Sensex, I think it was a swing within an ongoing triangle. When I look the monthly bar chart to the September 1994 peak, I count seven waves, so it does make a good corrective swing.''

Regarding your third query see the attached image.
vinay

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