System Based Trading

dear asish,
since u r a real trader[man]...i write.u r subjective..thats ur +,
why loss in real trade? that is part of trading.why u earn?because u can think..what may happen.....if price signals yourmay' right...enter.thats the winning trade.still fact is market is unpredictable.
but ur survival skill will make money.....+expectency u reqd in a system...
and i know u already had.as u r metastock expert...also master in trend based system...max u need to read crabels book on shortterm trading to master predictive volatility[ hope i dont x my limit]

Thks ,will try to read the book.

strange, but my post has disappeared. i'll post again.

Can you throw some light on the following?
minimum trade size $0.00

Hi av,
Minimum trade size, in the above context, is the minimum amount to be invested per trade.
Eg: You adopt a money management style where you risk .5% of your equity in one trade and your total capital is at, say 100,000Rs.
Stock A trades at 100 and you have a stop loss of 95. Since you plan to risk a total of .5% of 100,000 = 500Rs, your mm style makes you buy 100shares [500/(100-95)] of stock A. So the total amount to be invested is 100 shares * 100Rs/share = 10,000Rs.
If you insert a minimum trade size of 20,000Rs, this trade gets rejected because the amount to be invested is lesser than the standard.
This is applicable in testing strategies for futures trading where minimum trade size should be around 200,000 with 20-30% margin.

Oxymoron

Quantifying accuracy and precision:


Ideally a measurement device is both accurate and precise, with measurements all close to and tightly clustered around the known value. The accuracy and precision of a measurement process is usually established by repeatedly measuring some traceable reference standard.

Precision is usually characterised in terms of the standard deviation of the measurements, sometimes called the measurement process's standard error. The interval defined by the standard deviation is the 68.3% ("one sigma") confidence interval of the measurements.
If enough measurements have been made to accurately estimate the standard deviation of the process, and if the measurement process produces normally distributed errors, then it is likely that 68.3% of the time, the true value of the measured property will lie within one standard deviation, 95.4% of the time it will lie within two standard deviations, and 99.7% of the time it will lie within three standard deviations of the measured value.

This also applies when measurements are repeated and averaged. In that case, the term standard error is properly applied: the precision of the average is equal to the known standard deviation of the process divided by the square root of the number of measurements averaged. Further, the central limit theorem shows that the probability distribution of the averaged measurements will be closer to a normal distribution than that of individual measurements.(This is where i am emphasizing all future datas ,even Random,
can be Measured in Pobability distribution & i am seriously considering to use
Price & Volume in "X" axis together to find the Right / Left bias ,when viewed
putting intraday charts Time axis not on conventional form as presented by all s/w,plz suggest if any kind of trading software does that)

With regard to accuracy we can distinguish:

the difference between the mean of the measurements and the reference value, the bias.
Establishing and correcting for bias is necessary for calibration.
the combined effect of that and precision
A common convention in science and engineering is to express accuracy and/or precision implicitly by means of significant figures. Here, when not explicitly stated, the margin of error is understood to be one-half the value of the last significant place.
Plz note the Cache here:
However, reliance on this convention can lead to false precision errors when accepting data from sources that do not obey it.(Here datas stationary & non-stationary status & quality disturbed me).

Precision is sometimes stratified into:

Repeatability - the variation arising when all efforts are made to keep conditions constant by using the same instrument and operator, and repeating during a short time period; (Our forum's MACD / Pattern specialists / etc ; "et all' steps here)
Reproducibility - the variation arising using the same measurement process among different instruments and operators, and over longer time periods.
(Self Stress ,bias,comfort zone,varies with individuals)
A common way to statistically measure precision is a Six Sigma tool .
As stated before, you can be both accurate and precise. For instance, if all your arrows hit the bull's eye of the target, they are all both near the "true value" (accurate) and near one another (precise).

This is why all trader's are inclined to "System based Trading" we can try to be both accurate & precise.

Asish

Hellow asish
We get 45degree equty line which is great, Can we know the system from you
thanks

sikandar,
I dont know which one of my System you are refering to,however as these are explicitly named in my son & daughter's nickname hence all these are propietaory , where signals are generated in Metastock by self coded indicators.Hope this clarifies.However i have exclusively made one of my System FREE for this forum's member.
You will get it in some thread,the basic code,for triggering Entry (Long only),the Stop Loss & Exit you can design as per your personality.
Asish

http://www.************/file/19622016...657683ps6.html

This chart i got from CV yesterday night ,which without his permission i am storing here.

We may think what is BB & MACD doing on CV's chart ,this is after Neural network & Genetic Algorithm usage.

Ajay,
Why dont you initiate a discussion on System trading & why this is a must for us ,otherwise this subject is becoming a hi-funda thing for most of our members.
My exposure to this field is almost zero ,you start & latter on all others can chip in.

Asish

Thks Raja never tried this Fib ,as you have tested the t-3 how does the system fare ,any report plz.