i love day trading

biyas10 · #11 21st February 2007, 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ratan jain

friend,
its not 7 losses in a row...
its 7 losses in a bunch of 10 trades
i could have made the following ---+-++---
3profits in 10 trades
not more than 3 consecutive losses

hope u understand.

i understand your theory. but with a 30% wining system i have to prepare myself to see 7 losses in a row. can you say with 100% guaranty that you would;nt loss 7 losses in a row. if you are using a 30% wining system still there is a chance to win more than 3 trades depends on the situations & also you can suffer 8 losses sometimes. but i have to prepare myself to take 7 losses from 10 trades. it may come in a row or with your thoughts as you mentioned. but you are also right from your points.

biyas10 · #12 21st February 2007, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ratan jain

using a particular type of martingale, i can be profitable with a 20 % system even with 1:2 ratio
although that type of martingale is ABSOLUTELY not advisable to trade, ABSOLUTELY not, just for record purpose.

want details?

))

what you will do with a 20% wining system when it is not useful for trade. hope you will explain.

Luckytrader · #13 21st February 2007, 04:40 PM

Yes want to know more about your great system.

Waiting for your reply jain

hmp · #14 21st February 2007, 07:47 PM

Dear Ratan
Will U Pl. Explain Your Maritangle System In Detail? It Looks Interesting.
Thanks And Regards
Hmp

beginner_av · #15 22nd February 2007, 09:56 AM

matriangle is very dangerous if u dont have proper infrastructure...even if your entry seems perfectone small hiccup like ur net going down, ur pc crashing etc just when the market turns but before u can place a protective stop in. but as ratan has already said, it is dangerous.
as for 20% or 30%, it is not 7 losses in a row or 8 losses in a row..then it would have been all too easy in fact theoretically it can be 50 or more losses in a row too...when u toss a coin do u know what will come next - head or tail? now when u toss a coin 10 times do u know whether 5 heads and 5 tails will come? But when u do it for 1000 times that probability will approach .5. look at cv's thread somewhere on calculating expextancy.

ratan jain · #16 22nd February 2007, 10:22 AM

beginner: not meaning to hurt you, but expectancy is different from probability.

regards your observation about runs of losses, u are absolutely right... it will be about 30 wins in 100 trades, or 300 wins in 1000 trades, and not necessarily 3 wins in 10 trades. You have made a very vaild point. in fact sometimes i discover even a 40 or 50 % winning system, but because the system is going through a bad phase, it looks like a 20 % system, and i discard it, whereas i should at least take a 100 trades before deciding on a system. So, your valid point is accepted

hmp · #17 22nd February 2007, 10:36 AM

Pl. Explain Ur Way Of Trading.
Thanks And Regards
Hmp

biyas10 · #18 22nd February 2007, 11:30 AM

what happened ratan, are you going to explain .

ratan jain · #19 22nd February 2007, 12:42 PM

luckytrader: its not a great system, just 20 to 30 % winning trades.....

still interested in knowing my GREAT system?

just require balls of steel to apply money management tactics to make money from such a system.

hmmm...balls of steel....even they melt when there is too much heat

come on guys its trading time, concentrate on trading! lets talk in the evenings

beginner_av · #20 22nd February 2007, 03:52 PM

hey ratan,
not hurt or anything at all...i love good discussions. i was just answering to someone who said what will i do with a 20% winning system...and then someone who said how can i take 7 losses or 8 losses in a row...
1. just because it is a 30% winning system, u ont get JUSt 7 0r 8 losses ina row..it can be much more..and there comes probaility and law of large numbers.
2. Now what will this person do witha 20% system? there comes expectancy.
from some site:

"Expectancy is simply the product of your profit percentage per win and your win rate minus the product of your loss percentage per loss and your loss rate. For example:

* Win percentage 6%
* Win rate 60%
* Loss percentage 4%
* Loss rate 40%.

The expectancy is 2.0% per trade, or (6% x 60%) - (4% x 40%).

One of the more famous expectancy numbers comes from William O’Neil, advocate of the CANSLIM system and founder of Investors Business Daily. If we use his stop and target numbers of 8% and 20% and his published win rate of 30%, the expectancy can be calculated to be: (20% x 30%) - (8% x 70%) or +0.4%.

The bottom line is: expectancy must be positive if you want to make a profit over time. Never use a system with a zero or negative expectancy. You will not win. You can not beat the house over a long series of bets or trades."

hope that clarifies

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