Riskyman's risky bets

Hello,

I've been having a lot of time these days. Thought would start a thread to post my trades. Will update it as and when I can.

My present book is as follows:

Nifty 8850 PE at 80
Zee Entertainment Short at 365
Hindalco Short at 134
LIC Housing short at 466
ONGC short at 320
Canara Bank short at 445

All Fut prices.

Will cover shorts when market is looking to turn. I may roll over into April if bearish sentiment continues.

PS: Also holding some Nifty 8700 PE

wow!! that's big list. and nice to see your trading dairy.

Can you please let us know the strategy that you use to trade these stocks? It will be good learning for most here.

Thank you. Well my strategy is very simple, elementary price action. I try to avoid complicated patterns etc.

I could have posted charts for all my trades but there would be too many of them. So ill explain why I took Zee entertainment.

On the 18th March Zee tried to breakout over the previous high of 367 of 12th Feb and managed to close just around the breakout area. On the 19th March it failed to take out the previous days (18th mar) high of 367. This meant supply was coming in. To me its very simple. If a stock cannot trade previous days breakout highs then its running out of steam. So i took a trade at 365. Also, the larger bearish trend prevailing in the market helped. Downside in Zee is open till 340/330 spot levels.

LIC Housing finance.. Breaking down from a short term trend. Breakdown indicate by a blue arrow. After the breakdown, Stock trying to retest. Retest failing closer to the trendline. Indicated by red arrow. You can see two red candles. Invitation to short. Downside open till 440 spot levels.

This is very basic trading without trying to draw too many trendlines on daily/weekly time frames. These days simple has been more rewarding.

PS: I was short in LIC HF 490 levels after it failed at resistance on the 4th march. I exited this position after stock made a pull back doji on the 16th. This current trade is the second one.

Since we are getting close to expiry, Im Booking some more profits in 8850 Pe at 256 and 8700 PE at 130. Holding all future positions and some puts.

No new positions as of now.
LIC housing Fin doing well. Fallen from 460 to 450 today.
Zee Ent Sluggish
Can Bank doing wonderful
ONGC as usual is a tortoise.

Dear RiskyMan,

Thanks for this thread. I am practicing EOD trades now on stocks. Since the stock trades are taken from daily chart, few question I would like to ask..

1. Do you trade only the daily chart ? Or get a trend perspective from weekly and trade in that direction. As sometimes the DT on daily will appear as just a correction in weekly UT.

2. Do you use hourly or any intraday timeframe for finetuning your entry, exit ? Or entries and exits are done only on EOD basis ??

3. Do you exit only upon price action exit signals or consider profit booking at certain levels (say at fixed percentage gain).

Regards
Taiki

I mostly watch the daily charts. Weekly charts tend to turn a bit late so I prefer the daily. The small correction in the weekly may well be a 4-5% move on the daily which is really good. The trick is to make money right. Once you take a trade based on daily and then eventually weekly confirms it then you know you are in for a big haul. So I just sit tight and ride the trend.

Yes I use hourly TF for my entries. Im not fond of 5/15 minutes unless I want to scalp for intraday in flat markets. I dont necessarily wait till EOD to take positions. Like in my example of Zee Ent i took a trade because price couldnt not make new highs in the day. So im jumped in. To me there is nothing called as a perfect entry and a perfect exit. You see charts, analyze it and take a trade. Once you take a trade you can only manage it. The market will do what it has to.

Profit booking really depends. Assume that I shorted a stock at a double top resistance, I keep watching the price action and keep the larger trend in mind. If the stock is moving down as expected then I book part profits at closer to support levels. Usually at support if a stock is willing to bounce off then it will make a nice bullish candle stick pattern like a hammer or a bullish engulfing candle. I watch for this and book profits. Suppose I know that the stock has tested a support area 3-4 times in the past then I sit tight and see if its going to break support. As an example, Im short in Canara Bank. The stock took support at 400-405 levels for almost 10-12 days not willing to go down but also not showing any promising action on the upside. So i held my position knowing that the larger trend in the market was bearish. Can bank Broke 400 and now at 380. So really there are no fixed rules at times. The key is to be flexible and make the most of move. At times in flattish markets you have to follow strict rules.

There are times when you get out too early. No problems so long as you are making money. Some money is always better than no money. Having said I have held trades for over 4-5 months. I was short in Tata steel at some 530 levels which i rolled over a few times till it got to 350. I usually book profits from time to time and reenter on any fall or bounce back.

Short point Im trying to make is that as a trader you have to adapt very quickly. Just my thoughts

Dear sir, thanks for starting the thread.

Your reasons behind the trades taken are so easy to understand , it motivates beginners like me to focus on the basics and not complicate things.

Looking forward to see some more charts and building my knowledge.

Btw could you please explain the use of EMA's on LIC housingfin chart ?

Please no SIR business with me.

As you can see the EMA values are mentioned on the image. I dont usually trade EMA crossovers any more but use them as a guide. I use different EMAs for different stocks depending on the cycles they follow.

A simple yet effective way of trading is to enter a long position when price trades and closes above all 3 EMAs. And short the stock when Price closes below all 3 EMAs. Once you enter the trade and go into profits you can keep trailing your stop loss till you get out and wait for the next entry. Of course you have to keep the larger trend in mind and not blindly short/go long.

Also when you trading like this you can get whipsawed so entry should always be taken keeping the over all market trend in mind. If you see the chart of LIC Hf you will notice that in some places price is trading on all 3 EMAs. Thats the time you stay out or you can use other oscillators like stochatics/RSI whatever you are comfortable with for a confirmation. Sometimes even stochastics/RSI will not help in flat markets and you will get whipsawed. In that case you simply bow down to the market, take a small loss and move on to the next trade.

There are so many stocks in the FNO segment that will give an entry every day or two so pick one and ride it till you get out.

PS: No stock falls or goes up in a straight line. There will be pullbacks and bounces. This is where you have to take your profits and reenter again to ride the stock higher or lower.

Riskyman, thanks for your thread, you do not need to post every counter's charts that you have traded for the day. pls, try to post one chart which has given you much satisfactory in terms of your setup (not as per your good profit) and post another chart which trade is not giving you much satisfactory as per your strategy, or you unfortunately enter into a bad trade as you think so..... thus we shall be able to understand your strategy....and help it us to increase our trading ability.....
I wish you that everyday your good trading is always with you.....