Short selling - My edge in trading..

#1
This dairy.. i have meant to dump the thoughts i have read in various forums ( Succinent thoughts ) only for my personal reference..

If somebody has an idea of shorting anything with a definitive probability / logic and the reason why it might work , please explain your thoughts.. so that i can improve my edge.. Will be gr8full ..
 
#2
Bear in mind, though, that no edge will ever make a trader beat the market. For the market is not a beatable object. A trader can only strive to beat those in it less proficient than himself. Hence the value of proper education. The true edge in the market, it i safe to say, is simply one's ability to recognize and exploit the incompetence of others. - Bob volman.
 
#3
1. Heading the list of the small public trader's market behaviourisms must be his insistence on occupying a long position. The small public trader will only rarerly, if ever, sell a contract short. When the public feels that prices are headed lower, they merely stand aside, waiting until they think they have an opportunity to pick bottom and establish a long position that will permit them to profit from rising prices.

This penchant for always being long the market is impossible to explain in terms of either economic theory or price behaviour.

The small public trader is not much moved by either theory ( stocks fluctate on either side equally) or pragmatic experience. ( Short -seller realizes his profits quickly than long ). He is psychologically and irretrievably set up to be bull. You can nearly always count on his being long if he is in the market at all. And if he cannot be long, he will probably be on the sidelines.

2. The next most notable characteristic of the small public trader is his impatience with a winning position and his tenacity when things are going against him. He thinks he can only afford to make a profit. he never considers the possibility of taking a loss.

Public trader is also called as WEAK HANDS..

Strong hand - is the one, who is willing to letgo the possibility of making a quick million for the privilege of not having to contemplate an equally quick bankruptcy.. they pursue the same purposefulness observed on the part of the large speculators and commercial interests.

----L Dee belveal


We’re*all*quite*accustomed*to*the*model*where*we*purchase*something*first*and*sell*it*later.*Certainly this*is*the*case*for*most*of*the*major*investments*we*make*in*life,*including*houses,*cars,*artwork,precious*metals,*etc.
--- Laurence conners

Also majority of the calls given in traderji, tv programs, facebook, infact in facebook during market going the activity is too much.. the facebook becomes very very dull when market is falling.. All these indicates that majority is on buy side ( the public ) so I GET MY DEFINITIVE HEDGE, WHEN I DECIDE TO TAKE THE SHORT POSITION.. ALSO, ONE MORE FACT IS THAT EXCHANGE FAVOURS ME..

I will explain why exchange favours me, in commodities, when u have delivery positions, u have to squre off all your longs before 3 days of contract expiry.. where as for shorts you can hold till expiry.. Also, if there is a situation to bail out the short's or longs, exchange always prefers short candidates..

Also my when majority of brokerage houses recommends buying in this share that share etc., who is actually selling?? when we buy options ( i mean call ), when we buy futues, when we buy stocks,, there is somebody selling.. IS HE A FOOL TO SELL.. AND WANTS US TO MAKE MONEY.. No there is something.. ( i can't explain and need not have to know ).. Once i join their group I DEFINITELY CANNOT MAKE MONEY.. BUT MY ODDS OF FAILURE HAS REDUCED.. ; The everlasting goal in stock market is to reduce the failure rate..

----- My observation
 
#4
What if all my psoted trades ends up in loss all the time, that's fine.. I can't help it.. never was great at anything in life.. ( there were few glimses sometimes )... but never consistent..

I want to follow this rules for myself when i post the trade..

1. Mention what i am going to short trade...

2. Then go and do the actual execution of the trade, Then after execution, i want to post here, the traded price and time of trade ( because if want to backtest in future - need not go thro contract notes ).. Also want to mention, the actual SL if i have kept any ( or if i remove something, mention the same )..

3. Before booking the profit, want to mention about the trade ( if auto squre off happens at the system, - usually, 3.15 or 3.20 ) want to mention the same and post the traded price and time.. ; Since this is my trading dairy, i want it the reflection of my true trades.. ( So atleat failure ratio should be some bare minimum, if it is not.. then something wrong ).. And it is NOT BENEFICIAL TO ME TO POST SOMETHING IMAGINARY AS I DON'T IMPROVE, AND A PURE WASTE OF TIME AND RESOURCES....

Basically this post is to remind myself and control the urge to be right always.. repeat to myself.. WANT TO CONTROL THE URGE TO BE RIGHT.. AND THANKS(narahari)
 
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tradedatrend

Well-Known Member
#6
1when majority of brokerage houses recommends buying in this share that share etc., who is actually selling?? when we buy options ( i mean call ), when we buy futues, when we buy stocks,, there is somebody selling.. IS HE A FOOL TO SELL
Stock market is a funny place, at each price someone buys and someone sells, and both of them think they are smartest guy in the town.

On a serious note, there is nothing so mysterious in it, i hope you have heard or understand 'discovery of price' mechanism.

People were willing to sell nifty even at 4000/4500/5000 AND people will be willing to buy nifty even at 10K/11K/12K.

Nothing so esoteric.
 
#7
This dairy.. i have meant to dump the thoughts i have read in various forums ( Succinent thoughts ) only for my personal reference..

If somebody has an idea of shorting anything with a definitive probability / logic and the reason why it might work , please explain your thoughts.. so that i can improve my edge.. Will be gr8full ..
.....Mohan G you active after so many years....:D.......I earned Tons of money with Short selling in............stocks...:thumb:
 

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