NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

Have you been successful basing your buy decision on above? Writing naked will lead to bad RR, but not writing pairs... let me know if you have an eg of a trade which worked by comparing theta and volatality

I don't have exact example bcos that data isn't available to show.
You can just simulate a trade in an option tool by increasing vega and looking at theta and net premium.
Eg. Take a non-directional credit spread and initiate it at a low AV of 15%(Low BNF) and see what happens at 27-30% which is moves to. Widest range I've seen is around 12-40%.
That's why writing option early on is what I've highlighted, it increases the probability but there is no full proof strategy.
Even a short straddle has unlimited loss potential, but again, key is writing early so theta overtakes vega.
It can hurt most when IV increases just after writing. (Within couple of days)
On sep 29, Surgical strike announcement day,
if one rolled over a position a day before expiry in the morning, and such event happens in the afternoon.
I know its a bit extreme but you get the point.

NIFTY Analysis for the coming weeks.

Major events line up.
1. Expiry on 25-Jan
2. Budget on 01-Feb
3. Interest Rate decision on 08-Feb.

On Friday after consolidation at 8450, SELL is triggered. So for this expiry it might move downwards. If FIIs are selling then all the Supports might be broken.

The MAJOR Support is at ~7450, which also coinsides with 1000 points from ~8450, which is the Recent top. BIG Players normally play for 500 or 1000 points.
You can also observe the first 1000 point is 8950 to 7950. So why not another 1000 point from 840 to 7450 ?

But the Current Trend line support is at ~7650. So normally for a BIG MOVE on the UP side, the Major support will be tested which is at ~7450. My guess is that it might be tested on a day like Budget.

OI range is currently at 8000-8400, which has been the Range in this month. But for market to test major support(7450) and Trend support (7650), these Levels needs to be broken.

Normally during budget season the market will be very volatile and there will a lot of panic. But at around 7450-7500, you might buy some stocks for long term.

There is nothing right or wrong in the market and so this is just my analysis. The market can also GO UP. So please do your own analysis.

Daily Analysis using Heikin Ashi chart



Weekly Chart
Just to show that 7450 is the Support. In the daily chart the support at 7450 is not very evident.

Welcome back, Raj SIr, hope everything is fine. :thumb::thumb::thumb:

Welcome back Raj bhai,
Hope everything going nice with your trading...Is any changes done or same rules/method you using in your option trades?eager to know it from you .....you changed and helped to learn about options through this thread and shared most valubale OI file with us ...Thanking to this though there is no words to express it ....

Welcome Back Guruji Missing your post.. Expecting everything is fantastic your end. :clap: :clap::clapping: :clapping:

Thanks. Nothing much. I am learning to read and interpret the Charts. In the Options chain. Nothing much. Same stuff. For any trading Reading charts is crucial since it can tell you the right point of entry.

Anything on those polynomial charts ?? Please post the latest one for nifty and banknifty.

Yep , Absolutely true... for me just keeping it simple with Support and Resistance along with writing has helped. i've just shut myself out of buying completely. The beauty about writing is you dont have to be exactly right about the entry

@healthraj

Sir,
Among the various Polynomial Regression AFLs, which one do you consider good.

Thanks