LONE WOLF's Trading Diary

SBIN Paper Trades

Intermediate Sideways Range



SBIN Trades



Opened inside the range, and moved up to intermediate resistance. No Trade inside the range, rather wait for price reach the trade Zone. A big rejection near intermediate resistance at 202 with a bearihs divergence on stochastic. So SHORT below rejection low. Exit at day end.

Today RBI policy day, NIFTY intermediate trend is sideways in the range of 8270-75 to 8225-30. Though yesterday price went below 8225, but a meaning full breakdown could not occur, price reversed back and closed inside the range. (BDF). Now SGX Nifty is trading around 8270, so with a gap up we are likely to test the resistance. lets see how the market structure turns out, before/post policy announcement.

1) 3 June - 2 shorts Nifty, They seem to be against 30m Trend. What logic do you use for CT trades. Do you take trades against 30m when in 5m sideways?

2) ST uses oscillators as one of the methods in range days. This is his thread here. He uses some conditions for range days, see post 10. I have not read it yet and not familiar with RSI/Stoch, but will try to look too.

3 June was a gap up day. On gap days I tend to take CT trade when minor trend reverses. 1st SHORT trade was when minor trend turned down, 2nd was a SHORT continuation trade when price failed near minor sideways.

Thank you for the link, will try to understand them.

Strong uptrend today in SBIN. Very frustrating day for me.

Price today gaped up and moved to break few days inner range. NR7 Range BO. Pivot break here with trend moved well, i hesitated and missed it, still stuck in sideways mindset. Some volatility after RBI event, price compressed upwards towards VPH. Took pivot break above VPH, but stop hit. There was a nice entry before when price halted above +1SD for long time but didnt take it.

Later price moved very well. Some consolidation below Weekly mph and then it broke well too. I did not take any more trades. So even though what happened today was part of scenarios considered yesterday, i failed to execute into trend.

I have this persistent pattern of not trading if i miss original entry. Today, there was atleast one good trade later, above 208, but by then i had lost focus. i think i get caught in risk aversion and frustration. This patterns happens frequently.

Maybe adding another entry method when momentum is strong might help me keep focus and engaged. After missing a trade and seeing strong momentum, i can try more aggressive entries with smaller trade size - Aggressive pivot breaks, P1/2, 1min breaks. This would remove excuse of waiting for a proper pivot break, missing the move and then losing focus. These trades will have aggressive trailing atleast around entry as premise is strong momentum. Target is get some part of the move and remove frustration which otherwise builds up and i loose focus.

But first have to identify strong momentum without too much discretion ( otherwise i doubt every momentum move when not in trade). Good thing you brought oscillators into discussion.
To identify strong momentum, i ll try to use 5 bar rule - so after 4 or 5 consecutive OB/OS bars, we are in strong momentum ( 4 because 5th bar can be entry bar). Or if price 'sticks' to 2SD without retracing to 1SD we are in strong tradeable momentum. For now i will use RSI(14), but if some one believes Stoch/ROC/ADX/other is better for this, please let me know. So when trade direction is clear and i miss a move that begins to show momentum i will try to take an aggressive entry. Lets see how this goes, if someone has any suggestion please tell.

SBIN has now broken 1H Range by breaking 208. This is also Weekly BPB. All trends are up.



Edit - For Reference

Date : 07 June 2016

SBIN



A good trend day in SBIN. Price broke the intermediate resistance and not even a single mPL was taken. But considering the RBI policy If I were trading real, I would not have entered Long at the beginning. Where I have marked ADD, thats where I would have entered LONG. Even after that the trend continued for good points and lasted till day end.

NIFTY



A bad day in NIFTY, as I failed to enter LONG when price broke the minor sideways just below the INtermediate resistance level and never looked back. I tried to enter late at top but scratched for a minor loss..

Sometimes I also feel the same frustration, and with me it has more to do with fear and greed, When an original entry is missed, and I plan to enter later, there I sense the fear for what if price has to reverse now and I might end up entering right at top/bottom ?? Though before the entry I stay convinced in the breakout but once the entry is missed, I doubt every move, and try to second guess what I see on chart. Then again at the same time I sense greed, what if price never looks back, and I miss a good trade.. And together these two little demons leave me in confused cum frustrated state and then mistakes start occurring.

Yesterday on NIFTY the same thing happened, But atleast I managed to keep my head calm with no fear and greed, and tried to enter late for a scratch. I see an area to improvise to enter on pullback, P1/2 entry with a tight SL, rather than waiting for a pivot to be taken in the direction of trade.


Regarding Oscillator, I am trying to depend on them only for sideways days, not on trend. But I have not started reading on ST's thread. Will go through them over weekend, and even I had many questions on trading oscillator, I had mentioned them in my yesterday's post. Will try to explore the possibility by testing them over all type of days on past chart. Will share my findings here.

Sideways Day.

Price compressed for most of day towards PDH/HOD. Took one trade - tried to trade BO from VC ( Triangle) in trend direction but didnt work. Entry gave extra slippage and then took full stop.
VC Breakouts can be volatile. Since i use small sized stops, i should be taking early entries at latest pivot or wait for BPB. Since today bias was clear, buy on dips using VWAP would have worked better too, esp the 3rd dip that touched VWAP as by then VC Triangle was clear. Next time will try this and also reduce position size to give space for extra slippage.

Today was NR7 again, Small Doji near High of yesterday's Bar, so hopefully will get good BO ( and not go to lower Daily range).
For shorts, 15m ERL is still away at ~204 but 1H mpl is now at LOD - 207.5.

Date : 08 June 2016

NIFTY



Intermediate tredn was up since yesterday. So my trade plan was to trade on LONG direction in minor uptrend. If minor trend is sideways then look for buy on 1) Minor sideways breakdown failure (near support) or 2) Minor sideways breakout.

Yesterday at close minor trend had turned down, From down, it turned sideways, and I bought the bullish hammer near sideways support. Stochastic was not completely oversold, but was trading just above 20 but with bullish divergence


@TracerBullet, To me, also SBIN was mostly range bound, just one good pullback long entry on morning sell off which got capped near rising EMA.. Since you are trading with Equity, you can use half qty to enter directly in case of breakout, and add rest on pullback if that shows strength in continuation.. Just my 2C

A sweet breakdown from previous day's minor sideways range, Intermediate trend is sideways (from 8320 - 8230), trading from SHORT, Hopefully below 2DL, the short will start gaining momentum..