Help with trends

narangji

Well-Known Member
#1
Hi

I have been reading SAINT article Teach a man to fish, I have a few questions I would like to clarify. I tried to contact SAINT but his message box is full, hence I am asking my questions on this thread hope you guys can help.


As per my understanding SAINT mentioned never trade against the trend.

Q1 Which trend short term, intermediate term or long term trend?

He mentioned to pull up weekly chart and try to find out what trend we are presently in



Q2 This chart opens up in Amibroker. Now as per my uunderstanding Long Term trend of Crude is downtrend, but its awfully hard for me to tell whats the short term trend as I can join pivot high and lows.

Q3. Also if we look at crude 5 min chart yesterday to determine the trend.
Can we call this trend sideways? ( I am specifically talking about intraday trend for 9/04/2015) I am clear on 8/4/15 trend was down.

 

Krushna

Active Member
#2
Hi narangji,
I am also a beginner in TA and trying to answer this as per my little understanding of TA.
I agree that the trend on 09/04/15 could be called sideways. However I would like to add something here. Imagine you are watching 09/04 live. When would you call the 5 min trend sideways?
Till a little before 12, it was making lower highs and lower lows, so was downtrend.
At 12, it broke previous lower high, so DT was in question.
At about 12.30 a higher high was made and that was cracked at 2. So trend changed to UT at 2.
Then it made one HL at 2.30 and one HH at 4, so it was UT till 4.
Then at 4.30, it fell to previous higher swing low ( which was at 2.30), went up a little and made a lower swing high at 5.10 - 5.15. So previous UT was in question now as price made a lower high instead of making a higher high. Between 5 and 6 it made a lower low and a lower high and DT got confirmed. After 6, it again rose to previous lower high which acted a resistance and it made lower low - lower high till 8.30
Then price started rising from 8.30 . The swing high at 9.30-40 was a lower high, so DT still intact.
But after that price fell only for one candle and made a higher low and now DT was in question.
Then it rose and made a higher high at 9.10 and UT got confirmed. Then it kept making HH-HL til 9.50 so UT was valid.
But at 9.15 it fell below previous HL and again UT was in question.

Now at the same time looking at the bigger picture, we also see that the first intraday UT that started at 12 was from 3170 - 3180, went up to 3240, again fell to 3170, again went up to 3240, and started falling again.
So now when it rejected same level from top and bottom twice, we could say that the price is in sideways range.
( I am in a little doubt here about the analysis of the trend change to UT at 2. Because the entire DT from the beginning of the day was taken out in just one single retracement )
Request experienced traders to explain.

Regards
Krushna.
 

raul12

Active Member
#3
Hi

I have been reading SAINT article Teach a man to fish, I have a few questions I would like to clarify. I tried to contact SAINT but his message box is full, hence I am asking my questions on this thread hope you guys can help.


As per my understanding SAINT mentioned never trade against the trend.

Q1 Which trend short term, intermediate term or long term trend?

He mentioned to pull up weekly chart and try to find out what trend we are presently in



Q2 This chart opens up in Amibroker. Now as per my uunderstanding Long Term trend of Crude is downtrend, but its awfully hard for me to tell whats the short term trend as I can join pivot high and lows.

Q3. Also if we look at crude 5 min chart yesterday to determine the trend.
Can we call this trend sideways? ( I am specifically talking about intraday trend for 9/04/2015) I am clear on 8/4/15 trend was down.

I'll try to answer to d best of capacity. Hope it helps.

Ans1: See it depends on the TF you're trading in. Suppose you're trading Short term TF then you should go LONG once BOTH Intermediate(weekly) TF and short term(Daily) TF suggests up-trend.
So basically the saying "Trend is your friend" means that you never bet AGAINST the bigger trend and would always FOLLOW it.

Ans2: It'll be better if you use a period of about 2-2.5 yrs in your charts as it'll give you a clearer picture about the trend.

Ans3: My friend, "Hindsight is 20/20" :)
Agreed with the analysis given by krushna here. Also I'd personally prefer to avoid trading TF lower than hourly, as it leads to more whipsaws.
 

narangji

Well-Known Member
#4
Hi narangji,
I am also a beginner in TA and trying to answer this as per my little understanding of TA.
I agree that the trend on 09/04/15 could be called sideways. However I would like to add something here. Imagine you are watching 09/04 live. When would you call the 5 min trend sideways?
Till a little before 12, it was making lower highs and lower lows, so was downtrend.
At 12, it broke previous lower high, so DT was in question.
At about 12.30 a higher high was made and that was cracked at 2. So trend changed to UT at 2.
Then it made one HL at 2.30 and one HH at 4, so it was UT till 4.
Then at 4.30, it fell to previous higher swing low ( which was at 2.30), went up a little and made a lower swing high at 5.10 - 5.15. So previous UT was in question now as price made a lower high instead of making a higher high. Between 5 and 6 it made a lower low and a lower high and DT got confirmed. After 6, it again rose to previous lower high which acted a resistance and it made lower low - lower high till 8.30
Then price started rising from 8.30 . The swing high at 9.30-40 was a lower high, so DT still intact.
But after that price fell only for one candle and made a higher low and now DT was in question.
Then it rose and made a higher high at 9.10 and UT got confirmed. Then it kept making HH-HL til 9.50 so UT was valid.
But at 9.15 it fell below previous HL and again UT was in question.

Now at the same time looking at the bigger picture, we also see that the first intraday UT that started at 12 was from 3170 - 3180, went up to 3240, again fell to 3170, again went up to 3240, and started falling again.
So now when it rejected same level from top and bottom twice, we could say that the price is in sideways range.
( I am in a little doubt here about the analysis of the trend change to UT at 2. Because the entire DT from the beginning of the day was taken out in just one single retracement )
Request experienced traders to explain.

Regards
Krushna.

Great Explanation! I agree with everything except where you mentioned

"1. Then price started rising from 8.30 . The swing high at 9.30-40 was a lower high, so DT still intact.

2. But after that price fell only for one candle and made a higher low and now DT was in question."


I have divided your statement to 1 and 2... I understand till one and rest of analysis however can u plot point 2 on chart and circle which 1 bar you are talking about?

Also

"3. Then it rose and made a higher high at 9.10 and UT got confirmed. Then it kept making HH-HL til 9.50 so UT was valid.
4. But at 9.15 it fell below previous HL and again UT was in question."

Point 3 i totally agree with

Point 4 did u mean 11:15?

Also my question to experts and you would when we see WBR as seen in the chart, How shall we treat SL in rlieu to WBR? I mean shall the SL be changed to WBR or keep tat Pivots?

Thank you in advance.
 

narangji

Well-Known Member
#5
I'll try to answer to d best of capacity. Hope it helps.

Ans1: See it depends on the TF you're trading in. Suppose you're trading Short term TF then you should go LONG once BOTH Intermediate(weekly) TF and short term(Daily) TF suggests up-trend.
So basically the saying "Trend is your friend" means that you never bet AGAINST the bigger trend and would always FOLLOW it.

Ans2: It'll be better if you use a period of about 2-2.5 yrs in your charts as it'll give you a clearer picture about the trend.

Ans3: My friend, "Hindsight is 20/20" :)
Agreed with the analysis given by krushna here. Also I'd personally prefer to avoid trading TF lower than hourly, as it leads to more whipsaws.
I think you answer most of my question's, Thank you. I also agree with krushna analysis.

I would just post my 1st question in a different way, If I were to draw a trend line from Jan 15 to till date april 15. Can you or someone plot it for me to explain the short term trend in this specific period. My inexperienced eye sees it as sideways but many experts are calling it uptrend. I don't challenge them but I want to learn why it is uptrend (In Short term) Is it the 20% rule from bottom condition which is causing it to be treated as uptrend Or something else?

Where can i get intra day data for 2 years, I subscribed for data from RTDS and they are only giving me data for last 6 months. Can anyone share the past data?
 

narangji

Well-Known Member
#6
Thanks for your help raul12 and krushna for helping, A memeber named taiki (***** Ji) has explained the following which makes everything crystal clear.

1. Intraday Trend- 1/3/5/15 Time frame
2. Short/Intermidiate Trend- Hourly Time Frame
3. Long Term Trend- Weekly/Daily/Monthly Time Frame

So I simply opened up charts in amibroker for the following time frame
2.Short Term Trend- Hourly Chart

<a href="http://imgur.com/eWv9klq"><img src="http://i.imgur.com/eWv9klq.png" title="source: imgur.com" /></a>

So this answer's my first question- Short Term Trend is up, also clarifies Always trade the trend Statement

Q3: Yes the trend was sideway's however price opened at 3195 and closed at 3191 hence showing a little weakness


I hope this will help us all

Regards
 
Last edited:

Krushna

Active Member
#7
"1. Then price started rising from 8.30 . The swing high at 9.30-40 was a lower high, so DT still intact.

2. But after that price fell only for one candle and made a higher low and now DT was in question."


I have divided your statement to 1 and 2... I understand till one and rest of analysis however can u plot point 2 on chart and circle which 1 bar you are talking about?

Also

"3. Then it rose and made a higher high at 9.10 and UT got confirmed. Then it kept making HH-HL til 9.50 so UT was valid.
4. But at 9.15 it fell below previous HL and again UT was in question."

Point 3 i totally agree with

Point 4 did u mean 11:15?
 

Krushna

Active Member
#8
Thanks for your help raul12 and krushna for helping, A memeber named taiki (***** Ji) has explained the following which makes everything crystal clear.

1. Intraday Trend- 1/3/5/15 Time frame
2. Short/Intermidiate Trend- Hourly Time Frame
3. Long Term Trend- Weekly/Daily/Monthly Time Frame

So I simply opened up charts in amibroker for the following time frame
2.Short Term Trend- Hourly Chart

<a href="http://imgur.com/eWv9klq"><img src="http://i.imgur.com/eWv9klq.png" title="source: imgur.com" /></a>

So this answer's my first question- Short Term Trend is up, also clarifies Always trade the trend Statement

Q3: Yes the trend was sideway's however price opened at 3195 and closed at 3191 hence showing a little weakness


I hope this will help us all

Regards
Yes, taiki is a great soul and has been guiding me as well. I request you that whatever questions you ask him, do it in a thread so that it will serve two purposes: Even newbies like me will be able to read it and it will be sort of a informative thread which we can refer to when in doubt.
 

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