Technical analysis
- Thread starter narayanan
- Start date
My assumption is on the basis of wave count analysis. LONG TERM COUNT:wave1 from2904 to 6249;wave2 from 6249 to 4227;wave3 from 4227 to 12671; wave4 from 12671 to 8799; The present up rally may be of wave5. MEDIUM TERM COUNT:wave1 from 8799 to 10453; wave2 from 10453 to 9875;wave3 9875 to 11983;wave4 from 11983 to 12612;wave5 is running at present. We can assume that wave5 may be of equal to wave1.So there is a possibility that the wave5 may go up to 14266. SHORT TERM COUNT:wave1 from 12612 to 13075; wave2 from 13075 to 12950;wave3 is running.A return channel constructed with the help of wave1 & wave2 suggest the present rally will terminate at the level of 13950.MONTHLY MOMMENTUM INDICATORS: ROC15= at69 and come down from the peak of 87- negative divergence. MACD=at the point of 27 &cone down from the peak of 28-indicate market is loosing mommentum. RSI= come down from extreme peak of 98& make lower highs & currently staying at 76- below its 10 dau SMA_ negative divergence. from all above analysis, I assumed that the index can move up to 14150.Thereafter, there will be a possibility of a BEAR run. Good night...!
Hi. Thanks for your reply. Yes, we are in wave 5, as indicated by the divergence in the Elliot oscillator. Wave 3 of primary wave 5 might not have ended yet. Looks like it is extending. Going strictly by wave count, this could lead us to 15,300 and any correction should keep us above 12,610.
P.S. I'm not predicting it to go to 15,300...I just say what is shown in the wave count.
P.S. I'm not predicting it to go to 15,300...I just say what is shown in the wave count.
Oxusmorouz and company, this is for you to probably explain to a newbie.
I have not read Wave Theory, but this is a purely philosophical question. It stems from some confusion on my part regarding the basic approach to TA or any other analysis of stock trading. I currently use Amibroker and see what has happened to stocks from 2003 onwards. I see that in each wave the leaders change and there is money made - I presume only statistically, with normal distribution assumptions - so probably 95% loose and 5% win. It is all about timing. I could see the bottom during June 2006 but had no courage as did not have enough experience then. Amibroker came later.
It is clear that that was a interim bottom, as suggested by your wave theory.
If one wants to invest long term does one forget all this, buy blue chip stocks and then hope all goes well 15 years from today or have a heap of valueless paper, or in these days, valueless numbers. Or does one actually stop long term and only buy and sell based on timing and enter exit on each trough/peak?
with reverence,
jayesh
I have not read Wave Theory, but this is a purely philosophical question. It stems from some confusion on my part regarding the basic approach to TA or any other analysis of stock trading. I currently use Amibroker and see what has happened to stocks from 2003 onwards. I see that in each wave the leaders change and there is money made - I presume only statistically, with normal distribution assumptions - so probably 95% loose and 5% win. It is all about timing. I could see the bottom during June 2006 but had no courage as did not have enough experience then. Amibroker came later.
It is clear that that was a interim bottom, as suggested by your wave theory.If one wants to invest long term does one forget all this, buy blue chip stocks and then hope all goes well 15 years from today or have a heap of valueless paper, or in these days, valueless numbers.
Or does one actually stop long term and only buy and sell based on timing and enter exit on each trough/peak?with reverence,
jayesh
From what I can see, the question of "long term" doesn't really arise until the security is earning returns as expected. Trading without a stop loss is never recommended and the stop could be triggered even in a day's time.Would this not make you ...sort of a day trader?
Assume in a simulated environment, a stock rose 1000% (all % figures in this example assume the initial entry price to be the base)over the last 15 years.Surely, this wouldn't have been a straight line!. Assume that in the time frame you've adopted, the stock had 5 swings, a rise of 300% , a fall of 100%, a rise of 600%, a fall of 300% and finally, and a final rise of 500% before you exit.
If held throughout the 15 year time period, you would have had a return of 1000% (other things remaining the same). But if you had exited on each peak after your stop was triggered (whatever the technique of stop loss calculation maybe), you would have had a return of 300+600+500 - % lost due to stop getting triggered (say 100%) ,and ignoring short selling, your return is 1300%, 300% more than normal. This would not only increase your gain but also cut your loss!
The answer is obvious.
Good luck trading.
Oxusmorouz.
Assume in a simulated environment, a stock rose 1000% (all % figures in this example assume the initial entry price to be the base)over the last 15 years.Surely, this wouldn't have been a straight line!. Assume that in the time frame you've adopted, the stock had 5 swings, a rise of 300% , a fall of 100%, a rise of 600%, a fall of 300% and finally, and a final rise of 500% before you exit.
If held throughout the 15 year time period, you would have had a return of 1000% (other things remaining the same). But if you had exited on each peak after your stop was triggered (whatever the technique of stop loss calculation maybe), you would have had a return of 300+600+500 - % lost due to stop getting triggered (say 100%) ,and ignoring short selling, your return is 1300%, 300% more than normal. This would not only increase your gain but also cut your loss!
The answer is obvious.
Good luck trading.
Oxusmorouz.
Oxusmorouz and company, this is for you to probably explain to a newbie.
I have not read Wave Theory, but this is a purely philosophical question. It stems from some confusion on my part regarding the basic approach to TA or any other analysis of stock trading. I currently use Amibroker and see what has happened to stocks from 2003 onwards. I see that in each wave the leaders change and there is money made - I presume only statistically, with normal distribution assumptions - so probably 95% loose and 5% win. It is all about timing. I could see the bottom during June 2006 but had no courage as did not have enough experience then. Amibroker came later. It is clear that that was a interim bottom, as suggested by your wave theory.
If one wants to invest long term does one forget all this, buy blue chip stocks and then hope all goes well 15 years from today or have a heap of valueless paper, or in these days, valueless numbers. Or does one actually stop long term and only buy and sell based on timing and enter exit on each trough/peak?
with reverence,
jayesh
I have not read Wave Theory, but this is a purely philosophical question. It stems from some confusion on my part regarding the basic approach to TA or any other analysis of stock trading. I currently use Amibroker and see what has happened to stocks from 2003 onwards. I see that in each wave the leaders change and there is money made - I presume only statistically, with normal distribution assumptions - so probably 95% loose and 5% win. It is all about timing. I could see the bottom during June 2006 but had no courage as did not have enough experience then. Amibroker came later.
It is clear that that was a interim bottom, as suggested by your wave theory.If one wants to invest long term does one forget all this, buy blue chip stocks and then hope all goes well 15 years from today or have a heap of valueless paper, or in these days, valueless numbers.
Or does one actually stop long term and only buy and sell based on timing and enter exit on each trough/peak?with reverence,
jayesh
hai all of you,
Traditional Elliot wave is highly subjective! one can be dangerously missguided by it. Yes , i agree with you that the sub wave 3 is extending of primary wave 5. But, the traditional elliot wave is dangerous to predict top for price and time. Dear Narayana, you mentioned the sub wave 4 of primary 5 to be over and u mentioned the value which is overall appreaciated. Corrective waves in uptrend either get segnate or depreciate!
Next by neely's extension on elliot wave which is highly objective,
It appears that this bull run would top at 14300 near levels by this Jan07 to Feb07.And markets could enter a year to year and a half bear phase or lets be more specific a Primary wave 2 i.e. corrective phase.
For now, sensex and nifty would run into sub wave 4 correction of primary5.
Thus marked voaltility is expected. since Sub wave 2 of primary5 was elongated flat ( Glenn neely theory ) wave 4 could be of simple nature but a fast downmoving to sideways.( zig- zag or flat ).
Thanxs.
Winston
Traditional Elliot wave is highly subjective! one can be dangerously missguided by it. Yes , i agree with you that the sub wave 3 is extending of primary wave 5. But, the traditional elliot wave is dangerous to predict top for price and time. Dear Narayana, you mentioned the sub wave 4 of primary 5 to be over and u mentioned the value which is overall appreaciated. Corrective waves in uptrend either get segnate or depreciate!
Next by neely's extension on elliot wave which is highly objective,
It appears that this bull run would top at 14300 near levels by this Jan07 to Feb07.And markets could enter a year to year and a half bear phase or lets be more specific a Primary wave 2 i.e. corrective phase.
For now, sensex and nifty would run into sub wave 4 correction of primary5.
Thus marked voaltility is expected. since Sub wave 2 of primary5 was elongated flat ( Glenn neely theory ) wave 4 could be of simple nature but a fast downmoving to sideways.( zig- zag or flat ).
Thanxs.
Winston
Dear Oxusmorouz,
First, this is one of the most creative and difficult pseudonyms to go by. I mean your handle.
I guess you make your point regarding st. line or otherwise. My friend once sent me this PP presentation from Wipro and the fact that if one had brought Rs 10,000 worth of shares in 1980, one would today, with all its face value changes and bonuses, be sitting on Rs 230 crores or thereabouts.
I kept away from stocks and am sort of a latecomer and I cannot seem to shrug off my risk averseness. Plus I get conflicting suggestions on approaches. to come to a more clear and objective decision, I am surfing Traderji, to learn from others here. If one is not really into trading, and one factors in the bonuses etc, then does it make sense to hold blue chip stocks in large numbers, especially when you have started investing post 2005.
Obviously these are part of my savings and I must allocate money into various financial instruments. I am also sometimes the devil's advocate and can get into circuitous logic. My gut feeling clearly says to go with the ebb and tide, and forget the large term bonuses etc. I am sure you are reading between the lines here to all the things that must make trading and investing a nerve racking affair, but I seem to have some new born confidence, and can walk into a wall.
I know you are saying cut your losses, and book profits. I am trying to figure out if there is actually a long term horizon at all? I have a feeling with all that is happening, there may be a few years for Indian stocks after which returns will be slightly higher than the banks. and if mutual funds in principle give 15% average returns then it makes sense to trade.
(I also alternatively wonder that having the nest, why not just buy a farm and simply become simple.
Namaskar & thanks for the prompt answer. One thing is certain this is a good place to get your confusion sorted out.
Jayesh
First, this is one of the most creative and difficult pseudonyms to go by.
I mean your handle.I guess you make your point regarding st. line or otherwise. My friend once sent me this PP presentation from Wipro and the fact that if one had brought Rs 10,000 worth of shares in 1980, one would today, with all its face value changes and bonuses, be sitting on Rs 230 crores or thereabouts.
I kept away from stocks and am sort of a latecomer and I cannot seem to shrug off my risk averseness. Plus I get conflicting suggestions on approaches. to come to a more clear and objective decision, I am surfing Traderji, to learn from others here. If one is not really into trading, and one factors in the bonuses etc, then does it make sense to hold blue chip stocks in large numbers, especially when you have started investing post 2005.
Obviously these are part of my savings and I must allocate money into various financial instruments. I am also sometimes the devil's advocate and can get into circuitous logic.
My gut feeling clearly says to go with the ebb and tide, and forget the large term bonuses etc. I am sure you are reading between the lines here to all the things that must make trading and investing a nerve racking affair, but I seem to have some new born confidence, and can walk into a wall.I know you are saying cut your losses, and book profits. I am trying to figure out if there is actually a long term horizon at all? I have a feeling with all that is happening, there may be a few years for Indian stocks after which returns will be slightly higher than the banks. and if mutual funds in principle give 15% average returns then it makes sense to trade.
(I also alternatively wonder that having the nest, why not just buy a farm and simply become simple.
Namaskar & thanks for the prompt answer. One thing is certain this is a good place to get your confusion sorted out.
Jayesh
All of you guys sound good. Cant wait for the bear run.
CV
CV
"Even if a system or technique tells you what to do in the market, rarely will it give you a feeling for the economic outlook of a society or of the physiology overshadowing all market actions. Due to the Theory's mathematical qualification of mass physiology, it allows you to experience the economic "boom and bust" phenomenon with greater interest and understanding." - Mastering Elliott Wave - Glenn Neely - Elementary Discussion 1-7
after reading the all the posts the words by neely sounds very contradictory.
cheers,
jdm.
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