Technical analysis

CreditViolet · #11 16th November 2006, 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdm

lol

"Even if a system or technique tells you what to do in the market, rarely will it give you a feeling for the economic outlook of a society or of the physiology overshadowing all market actions. Due to the Theory's mathematical qualification of mass physiology, it allows you to experience the economic "boom and bust" phenomenon with greater interest and understanding." - Mastering Elliott Wave - Glenn Neely - Elementary Discussion 1-7

after reading the all the posts the words by neely sounds very contradictory.

cheers,
jdm.

Ahh yes..Mr.Neely...I have read his book...little difficult to digest but good work.

I find the word 'system' is very abused. Paltry Dual MA crossovers are considered systems when they are just that, dual MA crossovers.Successful systems are a product of hours of screen time and a 'premise'.Both of them dont come easy

CV

ash.investor · #12 17th November 2006, 12:01 AM

Hi All,

I am have no knowledge about Elliot wave Theory.

What I believe is markets are always difficult to predict with exact figures. I follow the exit strategy of Turtle Trading System i.e. if the price goes below 10 day low, then it is a sign of intermediate bearish market.

I have also seen lot of rising gaps in daily Sensex chart. Every gap will act as a strong support. So if prices have to go much below the gaps they will have to fill the gaps first which come in their way, this will be a kind of confirmation of the fall.

If markets fall go great extent, then the chart pattern will look like Double Top Reversal pattern which is a very strong trend reversal pattern.

The RSI (14,9) has also shown series of negative divergences which again an indication of trend reversal.

I would conclude that the market is overheated up and the fall (or correction) is due, but I don't know the exact price or time when it will happen.

Regards,
a$h.investor

jdm · #13 17th November 2006, 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CreditViolet

Successful systems are a product of hours of screen time and a 'premise'.Both of them dont come easy

yup.

there in n number of readymade "systems". but do they work. may be yes, may be no. my bet is no. it wont work, atleast for me.

why?

systems should integrate with ones personality, ones sentiment. and there those readymade systems fail. this necessitate the hard work as prescribed by CV. no shortcuts.

cheers,
jdm.

karthikmarar · #14 17th November 2006, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CreditViolet

I find the word 'system' is very abused. Paltry Dual MA crossovers are considered systems when they are just that, dual MA crossovers.Successful systems are a product of hours of screen time and a 'premise'.
:

Dear CV

Just thinking aloud… no offence meant …

IMHO a set of rules is a system whether it is the paltry dual MA crossover or highly complex rules using half a dozen variables.

Neither hours of screen time make a good system nor simple crossover because of its simplicity does not cease to be system. Eventually whatever it is, it should make money

Maybe our perspective changes as we evolve as traders and Technical analysts. AS we move up on the evolutionary scale and we start building better systems the more mundane systems which maybe we used once look stupid. Our “premise” changes. CV, I wish you had elaborated on the “Premise”.

If we looks at the great traders of our forum Saint, Amitbe, Voventru , all their systems from what I have studied are very simple and they have been making money for themselves and others in the forum..

Warm regards

Karthik

narayanan · #15 25th November 2006, 06:49 PM

1- wave5 of wave5 of wave5 seems to be completed at the point of 13790. So it is possible that bear move can start monday onwards. 2.-Another view of wave count: present up rally may be of waveb of wave4 [from 13200 ]. If this count is correct, we may experience some more increase in index. 3.-Whatever it is, it is wise to apply stop loss. IF index move down below 13300, it is better to liquidate all the holdings. 4.-I didt gft chance to read Neeley. History reveals that market can reverse well ahead of fundamentals.. 5.-I have very poor knowledge about software application in wave principle.

CreditViolet · #16 26th November 2006, 01:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by karthikmarar

IMHO a set of rules is a system whether it is the paltry dual MA crossover or highly complex rules using half a dozen variables.

Hi Karthik
Thinking aloud myself tonite..so here goes

Anything is a system that can be defined in a definitive rule based manner but just because it can be described as such doesnt make it profitable.One of the earliest systems to hit the net was Aberration, a very simple one and it worked till it didnt which happens with every system based on borrowed ideas.All consistently profitable systems are a labor of 'premise' in other words 'pattern matching with a positive expectancy'.Everything else lasts for a high volatile environment and then fades away.

Quote:

Originally Posted by karthikmarar

Neither hours of screen time make a good system nor simple crossover because of its simplicity does not cease to be system. Eventually whatever it is, it should make money

Simplicity and Complexity are a matter of context. For a brain surgeon or a pilot ,opening up the skull or 'taking off' maybe simple matters.Same goes with finance, programming anything.

Quote:

Originally Posted by karthikmarar

I wish you had elaborated on the “Premise”.

Its not really easy to elaborate on 'premise'. It takes a lot of hardwork to have a working premise of the markets which wont even make sense quite easily.Everybody who lasts in the market other than the quick buck bullmarket artists surely understands what I am arriving at.

Quote:

Originally Posted by karthikmarar

If we looks at the great traders of our forum Saint, Amitbe, Voventru , all their systems from what I have studied are very simple and they have been making money for themselves and others in the forum..

As I said, simplicity is a matter of context. The method I use appear exceedingly simple to me as well.The bottomline isnt about using something 'simple' or something 'complex'.The bottomline is 'what makes money'.If anything works for you, simple or complex anything else doesnt matter.

Regards
CV

CreditViolet · #17 26th November 2006, 01:50 AM

Here is a good article on the differences b/w Pro and Amateurs

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/commen...ofessiona.html

CV

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