Index Analysis - Nifty & Bank Nifty

Hello Anilbhai,

Do you see a head & shoulder formation in nifty spot ? The right shoulder is still forming, but the left shoulder took about 6 calendar weeks and knocked on the neckline 2-3 times, the head took about 4 weeks and we are only about 2 weeks into the right shoulder. My guess is that nifty would be rangebound between 8500-8800 for 3-4 weeks and then breakdown towards 8200-8000.

Any thoughts on this ?



Eventwise, we are into the results season, which is always choppy. Then the next session of the Parliament begins on Nov. 16, a perfect time for a breakdown

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Hi,

If you have been long enough in traderji, you must be knowing tradewithhunter and 315 strategy.

3EMA 15EMA crossover:
It is my observation that If 3ema does not cross 15 ema for a long time, price action will tend to move in such a way that 3 ema crosses 15 ema again. If the trend is still intact, 3 ema will again cross over 15ema again and resume its normal trend.

Sorry Anilji, if I was too liberal in putting this post in your thread.[/FONT]

Timepass ji,

Yes its a valid H&S formation going on. Nifty is below 50 SMA, so intermediate trend is down, moreover it started to turning down which is not good for bulls. The subsequent rallies towards 50 SMA failed.

On momentum side, picture is not so good for bulls. Intermediate term momentum turning down, after we crossed up since march-2016...so yes momentum is for bearish side.

You rightly said, this is earning season...so volatility will be there, better to play selectively on stocks...also be prepared for nifty whipsaws...

Anil Sir,

VGM and belated HAPPY NEW YEAR.

Nifty fut hourly... is this a valid TL break and retest ? for confirmation shall we have to wait for a pivot break on downside ?