Index Analysis - Nifty & Bank Nifty

Target hit for one +ww each of NF and BNF

Nifty Update:

Opened marginal lower and not holding up morning highs. Trading below 8130 will put pressure on hourly charts. And might turn into positional sell if hourly closes below it.

Support on daily charts at 8100 and then to 8050-55. Remember 8050-55...
Yes the last rallying point..so stick with it...

Strength on 5min above 8165 levels only.


Bank Nifty:

Positional sell can materialize if hourly closes below 16060-70 zone. So trade carefully there.

Supports on daily at 16060-15950 levels...

Strength on 5min above morning highs only...

Nifty:

Hourly closing not coming in good form. Although consolidation/correction is in slow form, raising doubts over fall. But Momentum divergences creeping slowly over hourly charts. Any efforts by bulls now need to be seen in coming two hours, else waning momentum may take toll on nifty.

On upside, i will see a sign of strength if price crosses and holds up 8160 levels.
On downside it turned away from our levels of 8130 zone.

So watch it, its time bulls needs to act...

The times like this scares me a lot....why... i had learned hard way...slow price action, indicates buyers/sellers meeting their prices, comfortable...indicating change of hands underway...and a big action coming soon...

So whichever direction you are trading, dont be afraid of change in colors...bcoz moves from such a silence market drives a bit longer than expected and kills many emotional players in the course...

Yes, a big action is very much underway.

hi Anil,
Many times we come across statements from experts that new shorts have been created in the nifty (or some counter) or fresh long positions have been initiated in the index (or some counter). How do we know this because for every short there is a long. So when some analyst states that there are huge short positions in a counter / index how does he come to this inference. Something to do with OI? P elaborate

Dear Esse,

Futures:

It is generally observed increase in premium alongwith increase in price is considered as long positions getting added. As those going longs are not minding premium and ready to pay for it.
So if OI of futures get increased alongwith price increase, it is construed as long addition going on.
If OI increases with increase in discount, then short have been added.

Options:

Generally here, lot of IV (implied volatility) reading do the real trick...
Although many take OI addition only as a inference.
Like increase in OI of puts and market moving higher, is construed as put getting written, and participants(smart writers) expecting market will not fall.

So you can watch intraday OI movements of that options and you will get clue, whether OI is getting increased or decreased on that fall or rise.

Similarly a huge OI addition in CALL will tell, participants are expecting a resistance there and market will not go beyond that point easily...

But you need to read everything with pinch of salt. Bcoz some of options from smart players come under strategy. Like bull spread or bear spread. So one get confused with OI added at both strikes.

Secondly, one can have feel of what is happening to IV's of that strikes with OI addition. Like increase in IV of options tells, its buying of that option going on.

Nifty update:

Nifty failed to hold of 8160 levels and this is shown by lack of bulls appetite. Now strength in nifty only above 8150 levels.

This is effect of -ve divergence on hourly. Now we need to see whether this spreads to daily charts or not. As closing wise yesterdays close on daily charts is well within comfort zone. But short term momentum on daily is turned down.

Expecting a support zone near to 8080-85. We are in midweek and to assert weekly trend nifty will try to keep above 8030-35 levels to keep weekly charts in bulls favour.

So if any fall if occur, needs to see closely at 8080 / 8030 levels. A bounce from these levels will tell, bulls are defending charts on higher timeframe and wants to keep structure intact.

Mind you my daily SAR levels is also coming at near to 8030 zone. So its a level i will watch for.

Anilbhai, banknifty please (?? spot ??)

Bank Nifty Update:

Yesterdays closing price action wise is a ok one, but short term momentum down caused todays morning to open lower. Bank Nifty in hourly Sell mode. Strength only above 16150.

Lower side support at 15990 zone. Infact if it starts sustaining below this, its not a good sign for bulls on higher timeframe. So bulls will act here...