Moment of truth ??

Munchikana,

Leading lambs to slaughter twice within a period of 6 months requires a different strategy. Lambs, too, are vary ... they are waiting for a correction as, short though the memories may be, they are not that short. So, if I were to put into place a working strategy, I would give them a correction that they expect and see as vindication of their thinking. Now you can lead them to slaughter because they will flock in to buy in a corrected market. So look for a strategy change. Signs are there. Markets are volatile ... and volumes are volatile. Signs are of a tug of war between the 2 b's. For lambs the winning of this tug of war by the bears will give then the incentive needed to enter the fray. Then after a couple of months ... WHAM

Moment of Truth being postponed till Infy results ??? lol

Boy this thread zoomed over the weekend have to still catch up

@munchikana: Sir, May we enjoy Diwali as Bulls...One thing to note my commentary is better than my trading

March/Oct/May/...(Dec...Feb)...this wound was deep will have to give it more time to heal the mob... short naps for the bulls is all... we may enjoy till new year I guess... before its adios amigos finally...

the wham could be a 2 day Nifty 200 pt zip zap... or maybe sideways movement will solve the problem ?

Some personal musings / things to watch out for:

1) Banks usually lead the rally in the last leg... (short bull trend & major bull trend)
2) the mids & small cappy start zoomy & Biggies starrt lagging or go side
3) media makes market a bunch of roses & thorns are made to dissappear... & recommendations comes after the stock has had a recent run up...
4) Gap ups...most dangerous...more start appearing in a short span...run for your life...there may be no tomorrow sitting on one of them...
5) Mr.Mathew appears on CNBC & is fined another 20 lakhs..he can surely afford that as maybe advertising cost...though by one recommendation he makes 10 times more
6) My wife comes & gives me a tip which her friend gave her...that is sudden death
7) The most basic one Greed>Fear

Dear Amit,

Neat slaughtering is possible when lambs buy at high, market moves down quickly resulting in 20 to 30% loss over a period of two or three days so that it becomes impossible to sell therafter for these lambs. They will be thinking that losses have already mounted and it is not worth selling at such lower price or that as the market has already moved down so much that it will bounce back quickly. When they are having such dilemmas, the market further moves down blocking all exit points. To have this situation, lambs must buy at high only. Otherwise losses will not be great and the threat of pain and sufferings will not loom so largely. In my posting itself I gave the definition of "Lambs" as unsophesticated retail guys. Members of this forum who have taken pains to read, understand and implement the wisdome and trading tactics advised by learned seniors of this forum have already got the lesson on stop losses in to their head very well. For them and for all other masters of the market, pain of loss will be much smaller and they will make it up in no time either by shorting or buying and selling on bounce back rallies. If one is able to implement stop loss levels (not in mind but in actual trading), they will survive anyhow. Money management tactics will only improve his trading account balance.

Dear Pankaj,

Buy and hold forever means not knowing when to sell and why should one sell. Some even think that these shares are family jewels and so they should never be sold. You are the master of trade. You are holding it for the maximum gain and you are implementing proper money management tactics. I never referred or included you in the lamb catagory.

Dear Kuldeep,

Strategy advocated by you is worth pondering about. Even in that case also sensex needs to move over and well above 13000. Let us see who will get the benefit of doubt.

Thanks to all of you for giving your valuable comments on the subject. If you have any more, they are most welcome.
Happy trading

Last but not the least keep good track of Satyam - it is ops favourite & bucks the trend...remember april...

well look at satyam chart - how it broke out of the rising wedge & the story after...

Trend is your friend but trendline is family

Just could not resist myself from bringing up this post of czar to remind ourselves that we shall not be carried away too far, i.e. to a point of no return.

Dear Czar, what about point no. 6 mentioned in your post quoted above? Has there been any progress?
Happy trading

rofl In absence of Pt. 6 I trade as yet fearlessly, I dread the day it will come but its getting closer, engines have begun firing at full cylinders, the training of buying on dips is intensifying, target seems dec/jan instead of jan / feb

satyam's move to the upside of trendline has created suspense

theres an inverse h&s fomation in the hourly.

Someone forwarded this article found on the net to me. On going through it, I found it interesting and felt that I must share the same with Traderji members. Here it is
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Corrective phase in progress
By Hitendra Vasudeo
Last week, the Sensex hung on to the 12300 mark. How long it will survive above it is the question. Our view over the last few weeks has been for a downward move and we have been witnessing the same.
Last week, the Sensex opened at 12916.67 attained a high at 13056.86 and fell to a low of 12316.10 before finally closing the week at 12430.40 and thereby showed a net fall of 414 points on a week-to-week basis.
The weekly trend is down since the weekly closing of 13568 on 23/02/07 . Since then, the weekly trend has been down. The weekly trend can turn up only on rise above 13145 or on Friday weekly close above 12952.
In case of a further fall and close below 12300, expect the fall to continue towards 11761 at least and to an outer extent to 11062. In case all these levels of 11761 and 11062 are violated and if the weekly close is below 11000, then expect the fall to get further aggravated towards 8800-8458.
If the Sensex does not violate 12300 or dips below 12300 and is followed by a rise above 13145, then expect the pull back rise to continue towards 13253-13534- 13814. Only when it closes above 13815, can we expect the top of 14724 to be tested again. At this point, any pull-back rally will have the potential to make a lower top against 14724. When we say a lower top formation, we are also in a situation where the bottom could keep getting violated after minor bounces.

Let us come back to the Wave Count before outlining the strategy for the week.
Long Term Wave Count from 2594 till date
Wave 1 -2594 to 3758
Wave 2- 3758 to 2828
Wave 3- 2828 to 12671
Wave 4- 12671 to 8799 to 14723 to the current low of 12316 (This move is in progress)
Wave 4 into an a-b-c formation
Wave a- 12671 to 8799
Wave b- 8799 to 14723
Wave c-14723 to 12316 (Current move in progress)
As per this count, an Irregular Flat exceeds the top of Wave ‘a’ i.e. that is 12671. It has the potential to exceed the beginning of Wave ‘b’ that is 8799.
If Wave ‘c’ is a failure then the 0.618 level of 12671 to 8799 projected down from 14723 is at 12330. The Sensex attained a low at 12316.
If Wave ‘c’ is Irregular Flat, then 1.618 levels of 12671 to 8799 projected down from 14724 is at 8458, which means the violation of bottom of 8799.
If the Sensex falls and sustains below 12300 then it would generate a potential to move down towards 8799-8458 range with levels of 11761 and 11062 acting as temporary supports on its way down to 8799.
Wave a -12671 to 8799 took 24 trading days. Wave c can have relation in terms of time by 1 time, 1.618 time factor or 2.618 time factor. Therefore, in terms of time, last Friday was 24th day from the high of 14724. The next 1.618 time factor of Wave ‘a’ is 6th April and finally 2.618 time factor of Wave a- is 10th May. Since last Friday was an important date, if the Sensex manages to sustain above 12300 on closing and then moves higher to close above 12983 week, then we could be in a situation of Wave C completion or Wave 2 of Wave C to begin which will have an up direction. We need to watch out for Monday’s session, as 24th day was Friday. Further we need to monitor 6th April and then 10th May. These could be important turning days to halt the fall from 14724.
Alternatively, if we take the long-term up move was from 2904 bottom, then the 5 Wave looks to have got completed and we are into a correction of the rise from 2904 to 14724.
Alternative wave count is as follows:
Wave 1- 2904 to 6249
Wave 2-6249 to 4227
Wave 3-4227 to 12671
Wave 4- 12671 to 8799
Wave 5 -8799 to 14723
Now into a corrective phase of A-B-C formation
Wave A is in progress, which has begun from the top of 14724. It looks that we are into a zig zag formation which runs the Wave A in 5 waves.
Internals of Wave A
Wave 1- 14724 to 13805
Wave 2-13805 to 14479
Wave 3 – 14479 to 12344
Wave 4- 12344 to 13145
Wave 5- 13145 to 12316 (Current down move in progress)
Once this Wave 5 is complete which can happen in next couple of days then expect Wave B to begin. Wave B will have upward direction trying to retrace Wave A.
In terms of time, if the entire wave from 2904 to 14724 is complete in 5 waves, then the corrective phase of a-b-c formation can complete at 12.5%, 25% or 38.2% in terms of the entire time it took to form 2904 to 14724. In that case, the important time frame points for this big correction can be 4th August (First Week of August’07). This is the earliest time when this corrective phase can get completed.
The 0.382, 0.500 and 0.618 retracements levels of the rise from 2904 to 14724 are
placed at 10285-8814-7419. The bottom of Wave 4 is at 8799. Corrective phase can retrace down towards the beginning of Wave 4. Incidentally, 50% correction level of the rise from 2904 to 14724 is at 8814.
On fall below 12300, the levels are 11761-11062- 10208-8814. Pull back resistance points will be at 13145-13805- 14479-14724.
Weekly resistance will be at 12601-12886- 13056-13145. Weekly support will be at 12145 and 11404.
Strategy for the week
Use spurts to exit or sell stocks as the index moves towards 12601-12886- 13056. Expect reversal on close above 13145. Overall strategy should be to exit long whenever a significant rise to 13145-13805 range is seen and as the opportunity arises.
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Opinions on the above article are welcome.
Munchikana