Moment of truth ??

Dear Amitt

I am happy to know from your previous posts that you are following Glenn Neely's Elliott wave Principles. I too just started studuying it. Soon I ask some doubts in that and hope you dont bother you!

I understood that you acceptting Mr.Caldaro's oEW based predictions from that thread, he is telling alreay BSE topped ar 12487 levels with his 5 counts in wave V. Now you are projecting much higher levels for nifty. Is there any contradictions? Or am not understood properly? Please give your feedback.

Regards
Suresh

Hi Suresh, there is always contradictions in Elliott just as there is in the market (See Prechter and Neely and others).It can go up or go down.As u know Elliott measures market psychology,so the the price impact may be some days after the psychological impact.And thats NeoWave(or neely method for you)
As regards to Mr.Caldaro,he is a respected Elliottician and has been
consistently right,when everybody else has been wrong.If u read his blog he says the current move may also be part of the fifth wave up from 3328.Or it may also be 5 wave completed I am attaching daily chart.Now y i differ just see the price action,it fell from 3606 but rebounded in good measure.Though it is still not taking out intraday highs.(The Gapups).And see how price action is returning to 3500-3490 levels again and again.
And thats y I mentioned 3550 closings.I am attaching chart and its evident.
Also u will do well to check out 2 day period ,it has made an inside bar and closed lower than the open.Maybe some conventional TA wud explain.

Warm regards
Amit

And PS prediction is not the correct word,its forecast.He who predicts is lost.

Attached Images

	2day.jpg (56.7 KB, 18 views)
	count.jpg (62.3 KB, 21 views)

Dear Amitt

Thanks for your reply.

Regards
Suresh

Hi czar

In your usual style, you have given very apt title for this thread, when sensex is nearing its peak.

Sensex has not been able to cross 12500 though it struggled last week of Sept 2006 to try and cross it. But that was not to be. Presently, sensex seems to be in the range of 12500-11500. The reason for such a wide range is simple:-- it is volatile and dependent on many factors other than economy and fundamentals.

Interest rates and oil prices and inflation and growth rates and infrastructure all these have their say. Market always does that. But don't get taken in by glib talks.when oil prices were high, bad for market , when it is low, bad for market. Does anyone gives a thought that it might be good for airlinesoil companies and bad for exploration and non conventional energy sources.
Power is going to be next thing which is long time due in coming.sector specific effects should be analysed before a decision .

It has not been propelled into 12500-13200 range and because of that uncertaintly remains. As long as it is below its alltime high it will either have to consolidate or drop down after a period of oscillation.

It continues to defy predictions either way. and struggling at the level of 123500(+-200). Every time it moves up, broken hearts try to book lost profits and bring supply of fresh stocks to the market. Operators manipulation can not be ruled out altogether.

Being confined to a narrow range for large part of month without dropping too much would sap supplies and then it may likely to head up north. This situation will continue for quite some time.

Ultimately, further movement upward will greatly depend on economic progress and indicators in addition to liquidity(FII). We have still one and half year to go before loksabha election fever kicks in. If it is able to consolidate and move beyond its high then we may be in a position to see it achieving target of 15000. At such dizzying heights things are clearly foggy and path from 12800 to 15000 will be treacherous. Strict discipline in trading and investing can only save one from wiping out profit and capital.

Lastly, there will always be some stocks which remain favourites and have good future ahead. Others may try to ride up the wave. Investors should try to find out the stocks in first category(no prize for guesses) and avoid those in second category. At these level much caution is required.

In any case we are not going down to 7600 neither to 9000 though we might consolidate on a long term basis.

Pankaj

Sums up Everything.
Cheers and Warm regards.

Thanks amit, another sure sign to be cautious is seen in the forum itself, when tips are in demand

incidently, I came across this

Did we say market exhibits herd mentality

Always nice to be here amit.
pankaj

ROTFL, ROFL ROTFL ROFL....Dada that was too good

Just my jottings on the subject. Do not know whether they are relevant or not. Do not know whether this imagination will come true or not. May be just as good as the performance of our cricket team!

1. These lambs (read as unsophesticted retail guys) have not come up for slaughtering as yet. Slaughtering done on the last ocassion (during May to June 2006) has scared vast majority of them. Unless these lambs are sacrificed, (this happens time and again) I do not think, bull run will be over.

2. Our TV commentators (Dr. Elder referres them as "Plague" in one corner of his book) are still bullish. Unless they are wildly bullish, these lambs may not venture out. Hence some more way to go. Further once the sensex reaches 13000, these newspapers will announce it with BOLD, CAPITAL letters where the font size will be in excess of 120. That will surely attract the attention of all hetherto sleeping lambs. Our TV commentators too may scream at the top pitch urging the lambs to get in and enjoy the party.

3. Once the old high (12673 for sensex) is taken out convincingly, I think, many lambs will rush in. So you move the sensex to say 13200 to 13400 level, all lambs will be sticking their neck out in the "right position" so that in one easy, neat and swift "operation" "goal" can be achieved.

4. Memories of the public is always, I repeat, always short. That is why we are having the same things over and over again.

5. If the market is pulled down at this stage, many of those (who are already in the market) are cautious. Hence, they will cut their position soon. They have to be slightly offguard and less careful. They only things can be moved swiftly without any one noticing it (Czar is an exception to the rule). Not a great or easy way to achieve "goal".

6. Let the sensex reach 13000. Udayan Mukharjee and Co. will write a big banner/poster/hoarding and dance around with it in CNBC news room. Additional entertainment during Diwal that too free of cost!

7. Last but not least, Diwali is around the corner. Do we need a Diwali where bears are roaring? Nah.......... Diwali needs some fireworks and happy faces. Only Bulls can ensure that for majority of these lambs. Because, these lambs are "buy and hold forever" type. They rarely know how to take advantage of a bear market. Bear market leaves only a handful of them who are real masters (such as Czar) happy.

Any comments on my jottings are most welcome.
Happy Diwali in advance to all members.

P.S. Dear Czar, take this post in a light hearted Diwali mood.

Munchikana,very thoughtful when we consider your jottings,but i wud beg to differ,because when u consider retail being slaughtered,y wud u consider them getting slaughtered at top(buying high)they can be slaughtered buying on dips too.Consider market action post 3490.A gyration of 500 odd points and gain of 80 points.And volume increasing.And mind u its only the foolish retail who get slaughtered not all,u cant paint em all as same category.

Do take this also as light hearted.

Warm regards
Amit

Dear munchi

Basic assumption that you are making is that current trend is a bear trend.
I am afraid it may not be so.
I think I am one of those lambs you referred to as "Buy and Hold forever" type.
The time span of holding is not less than three years and unless I am convinced that this is truly a bear market, I would not mind holding these stocks on a portfolio basis. Certainly after the pullbacks in May 2006 its value has gained its lavel and during pullbacks I averaged for some where I am convinced that it has strong fundamentals and good future based on my estimates of economic growth. Yes, some are still comsolidating in their ranges. But then it is portfolio management and one has to give time to mature and ripen before reaping the fruits. Remember, the stock in my story, it is still there and preparing for next launch.

On a short term basis, yes ,retails guys who rush in on tips and news for quick bucks get slaughtered, because their investment doesn't respect the market dynamics. The urge and request for tips from such guys for short term benefits become intense during run up to next peak. and some win some loose.

Pankaj