Elliott wave for Nifty in Sep 06

rsdsouza · #1 3rd September 2006, 08:39 PM

I'm new to the Elliott Wave theory and have been trying to understand it by applying it to the Nifty. I'm trying to apply EW for what we have in the Nifty at the moment, and this seems to be my analysis;

we had an extended impulsive (sub-wave 5) wave which ended in mid-May, and therefore it seems likely that we are seeing an irregular corrective wave, wave A of which ended in June 14th 2006, and we are presently in wave B. From the looks of it, this wave B will probably continue rallying till the May-high 3774 levels, before turning into wave C (which could be a 5-wave) downwards.

Please let me know your views on this.

Thanks,
Rajath.

amitt29 · #2 3rd September 2006, 09:46 PM

Hi,Welcome to the forum.
Its a fair analysis,but on the daily charts(bar)we see a 5 wave down move from 3774.And two correctives begin with a 5 either a triangle or A wave of zigzag.
Now according to basic Elliott the max target for wave B of zigzag is 61.8% of A which it has surpassed conveniently.
There is a school of thought which believes the B wave can exceed this,i dont subscribe to this(and turning the corrective from a zig to a flat).But we see the 5 wave coming down.And the count of flat is 3-3-5
Therefore u can presume to either the count being wrong(zig-zag),or we r still in a complex wave B.
But herein lies the catch again,wave B of zig is composed of abc,where the last up wave is c(itself composed of 5 waves of same degree)and they dont have extensions.Since it is a corrective.So its upto you to accept and analyze what u have.
Also u wud do well to have an alternate count.
Warm regards
Amit.

alsaidan · #3 4th September 2006, 02:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rsdsouza

I'm new to the Elliott Wave theory and have been trying to understand it by applying it to the Nifty. I'm trying to apply EW for what we have in the Nifty at the moment, and this seems to be my analysis;

we had an extended impulsive (sub-wave 5) wave which ended in mid-May, and therefore it seems likely that we are seeing an irregular corrective wave, wave A of which ended in June 14th 2006, and we are presently in wave B. From the looks of it, this wave B will probably continue rallying till the May-high 3774 levels, before turning into wave C (which could be a 5-wave) downwards.

Please let me know your views on this.

Thanks,
Rajath.

Hi Rajath

The chart shows Wave A (zigzag), and of course based on the rule of alteration Wave B has to be flat. Now, so for the bars exceeded 62% of the length of wave A (if i am not wrong 72.5%, I dont have the data!). As our friend "Amit" said the B wave of the zigzag should not exceed 62%, however, in rare cases wave B can reach even 76% of wave A (in this case they call it zigzag flat)!!!!

I think the most likely situation in the chart is to end up making a REGULAR FLAT , in this case wave A is then recounted as 3 waves. One thing may support this assumption: Notice the inverse Head and shoulders and the crossing of the neckline and the potential target which would be expected to reach, if not slightly exceeds, the beginning of wave A (all time high).

Regards

rsdsouza · #4 4th September 2006, 10:21 AM

Gee, guys, thanks a lot.

That certainly makes sense. So, this would be a 3-3-5 regular flat, and the Head-And-Shoulders pointed out seems to confirm the price target for wave B.

Just one more question - once this correction is over (after wave C), would this corrective wave be Wave II or Wave IV of the higher-degree wave?

Thanks,
Rajath.

<This forum is proving to be even better than I initially thought>

amitt29 · #5 4th September 2006, 11:26 AM

Hi,
Thanks for the words,this forum is very good.I have a bit of reservation abt the flat count because it cannot be so,in my opinion we had a pretty complex fall from 3774.The first fall was a double which took it to 2896.Then we had a complex wave to 3277 and then a double zig again to complete wave A at 2595.It appears as 5 waver on daily but on 15 mins or hrly u can see the figure.
This wave B again is a complex corective we had a 3-3-5 till 3200 to complete wave a.Confusion again for an impulse with irregular corective has 5-3-3 count again.Then we had a fall to 2878 to finish wave b and this is wave c,whose targets for me are at 3529.
On the other count we hadve had a completed correction at 2595(see it on line chart 3-3-5)and this is impulse wave 3 of 5.

According to me if we have completed a correction,we have completed wave 4 of Primary wave 3 and not wave 2.

Warm regards
Amit.

Czar · #6 6th September 2006, 03:42 AM

is'nt 3530 78.6% of the fall (approx)

amitt29 · #7 6th September 2006, 11:53 AM

Yes Czar bhai it is,but if i go by my bullish count we may have a short and swift fall near 3530-3550(if it takes out then we will have a steep rise to 3600)to around 3420 happening around 3rd week of this expiry.Then again a rise to previous highs and beyond to complete this rally from 2595.Till then it will be a sluggish rise.

On the bearish count we shud have seen a fall at these levels taking the nifty to around previous lows.Which doesnt seem happening,everyone who is having this bearish count has been calling for a correction for the past 3weeks.Except that its not happening.

The fall will come but when nobody expects it.

And i dont believe in 1-2,1-2 count that some advocate,thats not how the wave principle works.

sukumar_salem · #8 6th September 2006, 11:55 AM

Can anyone give me Trading Ideas for Gold and Silver Futures?

casoni · #9 10th September 2006, 09:07 PM

hello ,
i dont think any nobody will doubt the analysis of this author , charts of bse sensex daily & weekly.... =Labeling= primary waves I - V; major waves 1 - 5; intermediate waves i - v; minor waves 1 - 5; minute waves i - v (both lesser scale). as charts r from stockcharts

rsdsouza · #10 11th September 2006, 07:04 PM

Hi Casoni,
Those are great charts to learn from. It will be great if you can post the URL from where you got them in stockcharts?

Thanks,
Rajath.

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