Experiments in Technical Analysis

kkseal · #**911** 25th April 2007, 01:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by karthikmarar

Hi kalyan

Here is the smoothed DMI. Same result. much better to work with. but at least one bar delay. On stochastic IFT , will try during my Weekend.

regards

Karthik

My word, Karthik! That was lightening fast!! Will take some time for me to reach your proficiency with AFLs.

Just one more request Could you please post the DMI for the same Infy chart (same period) that you had used for the SRSI (preferrably with the RSI & SRSI also in place). This would enable better comparison.

And Thanks yet again

I don't know if i'll ever be able to return your favours but will certainly try.

Regards,
Kalyan.

karthikmarar · #**912** 25th April 2007, 10:15 PM

Hi kalyan

Here the requested chart with RSI,SRSI and smoothed DMI. SRSI seems the winner

. What do you say.

Also enclosing a chart on how I look at DMI...

About returning favours, Yes you can. Just keep winning, laugh all the way to the Bank .. and ... Donate a tiny part of the pickings to a genuine orphanage or old age home...

regards

Karthik

uasish · #**913** 25th April 2007, 10:50 PM

karthikmarar,

Nice to see dedicated people.Was toying an Idea "Cycle" not the "Hurst or Bookish Convential one's,see Nifty Fut ,reacting on 13th to 15th,(plz refer my post 2days back in Nifty 5000).Why not put a 1/2 cycle Mov Avg & 2 cycle MA ( as periods),& see the effect on Low & High Beta stocks with good liquidity.MACD being not my cup of tea ,thought you can atleast see ,is it worth trying ?

Asish

karthikmarar · #**914** 26th April 2007, 11:11 PM

Hi Asish

Nice idea indeed. But can you please direct me to the post you are refering to?

Cycles... mm.. the only cycle I am comfotable with is the two wheeled one which I was riding to school...

I did not make much progress in my study of cycles... rather confusing stuff really...Kondrateiff wave, 4 year kichin wave,jugular wave, 28 day wave... phew.. leave alone Hilburt and Ehlers....

Also each stock.. or each sector at least... may show its unique cycle..

I gave up on these stuff as I did not want to give early retirement to my comb... already it has got less work..

regards

Karthik

kkseal · #**915** 27th April 2007, 01:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by karthikmarar

Hi kalyan

Here the requested chart with RSI,SRSI and smoothed DMI. SRSI seems the winner

. What do you say.

Also enclosing a chart on how I look at DMI...

regards

Karthik

Great charts Karthik. Just what i desired. Thank you.

My great fear with regard to the SRSI & the (smoothed) DMI was that any further smoothing of the RSI (which already has Wilder's smoothing internally - part of it's construction) might obscure the divergences for which i value the indicator most. But your charts of the SRSI dispels this fear Not only are the divergences clearly there but you can even distinguish between the strong & weak ones.

The DMI has the advantage of being free of fixed cycle periods (that is the 'Dynamic' part). Also being volatility weighted, it incorporates the time element (i.e. if you consider volatility & momentum as proxies for the time element) as well. But what disappoints me about the DMI in those charts is it's failure to pick up some of the short time peaks (like it missed one of the peaks in mid-Feb).

Quote:

About returning favours, Yes you can. Just keep winning, laugh all the way to the Bank .. and ... Donate a tiny part of the pickings to a genuine orphanage or old age home...

Just what i'd expect from someone like Karthikmarar

Actually, i'm already involved in a small way. There's a social organisation near my place that works for the education of underprivileged children. I help them in collecting old books and other educational material. I started off by donating some of my old books and an old computer (they don't have any resale value anyway) to one of their volunteers but gradually got sucked in myself. We have built a small library and a computer lab all from donated stuff. Our next aim is to start evening meals for the children (after their free tuition & computer classes) and also, if means permit, some health check-up facilities.
There are plenty of such organizations working at various places in India. I think each one of us can chip-in with a small bit if we want to. And it's just not charity, it also has it's reward - great inner satisfaction Try it folks.

Regards,
Kalyan.

kkseal · #**916** 27th April 2007, 02:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by karthikmarar

Hi Asish

Nice idea indeed. But can you please direct me to the post you are refering to?

Cycles... mm.. the only cycle I am comfotable with is the two wheeled one which I was riding to school...

I did not make much progress in my study of cycles... rather confusing stuff really...Kondrateiff wave, 4 year kichin wave,jugular wave, 28 day wave... phew.. leave alone Hilburt and Ehlers....

Also each stock.. or each sector at least... may show its unique cycle..

I gave up on these stuff as I did not want to give early retirement to my comb... already it has got less work..

regards

Karthik

Yes, to follow cycles with any accuracy you have to come down to the sector level at least. (I guess commodity traders have a better idea of this).
Here again govt policies may influence cycle time (like the upcycle in cement has been prematurely ended or at least thwarted by govt policies to curb inflation).

Also market cycles are unlikely to be the same for different markets and even for the same market at different times and worse, different for different time-frames (this is something Uashish has himself noted as evident from a post of his in another thread FFTs of the market or a particular stock in different time frames might confirm this).

Moreover so many nethods have come up - each with it's own jargon and discretionary elements that it's hard to figure out and only results in confusion. (Some swear by the DeMark indicators - no idea how good or bad that is

).

This also has a bearing on indicator cycle periods. For instance the 12, 26 for the MACD that's normally used may not be the best for all mkts and even for the same mkt at diff times and/or different timeframes.

Regards,
Kalyan.

kkseal · #**917** 27th April 2007, 02:55 AM

Another pt about the CMO and the ROLTA chart.

Around midway you'll find these WRBs all over the place but hardly any movement in the CMO (if anything, it's dipping). This appears contradictory at first sight, but if you watch the closing prices there is hardly any day-to-day movement in prices, just the wild intraday swings, denoting big intraday but no interday momentum (& the poor CMO with it's close-to-close construction - like most other momentum indicators *- can only pick up the interday momentum which is just not there).

But give it enough time (if mkt & stock conditions warrant so), and the interday momentum will generally catch up with it's intraday counterpart. This (and allied observations) make me wonder if a bottom-up (from lower to higher timeframe) approach isn't a better way for using the Triple Screen than the top-down approach that Elder recommends. (Off-course i'm not jumping to conclusions here).

Regards,
Kalyan.

* This is what i like about the Stochastics - it uses the High & Low , i.e. the true range, of prices over a period than just the close-to-close. An IFT while normalizing the indicator will hopefully make not just the ob/os levels but also the hooks & dips sharper & more pronounced.

Gayathri · #**918** 27th April 2007, 12:21 PM

Hi Karthik ,

I am Happy see u with such a good idea.This will be really helpful for beginners like me

Thank you,

Gayathri

uasish · #**919** 27th April 2007, 03:40 PM

kkseal,

Happy to know ur social commitment part.Soul satisfying act.

Asish

Saint · #**920** 27th April 2007, 06:31 PM

Quote:

Just what i'd expect from someone like Karthikmarar

Actually, i'm already involved in a small way. There's a social organisation near my place that works for the education of underprivileged children. I help them in collecting old books and other educational material. I started off by donating some of my old books and an old computer (they don't have any resale value anyway) to one of their volunteers but gradually got sucked in myself. We have built a small library and a computer lab all from donated stuff. Our next aim is to start evening meals for the children (after their free tuition & computer classes) and also, if means permit, some health check-up facilities.
There are plenty of such organizations working at various places in India. I think each one of us can chip-in with a small bit if we want to. And it's just not charity, it also has it's reward - great inner satisfaction Try it folks.

Regards,
Kalyan.

Hi Kalyan,

Great going,my friend.......truly gratifying to read the above post.Wishing you all the best in your endeavours.

May we all try to do in whatever way we can to help our fellow brothers and sisters in need......And since we are traders and investors,may we all learn the fine art of plundering the markets,and then give away a portion to those who are in need.

Once again,Kalyan,wishing you all the best in your trading and your endeavours.......all the best!

Saint

ps:Karthik,sorry for this post,a minor distraction in this great thread.....but I couldn't help it.

Keep up the great effort,and all the best,my friend.

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